Prospect for relic neutrino searches

Unlike the relic photons, relic neutrinos have not so far been observed. The Cosmic Neutrino Background (C$\nu$B) is the oldest relic from the Big Bang, produced a few seconds after the Bang itself. Due to their impact in cosmology, relic neutrinos may be revealed indireclty in the near future through cosmological observations. In this talk we concentrate on other proposals, made in the last 30 years, to try to detect the C$\nu$B directly, either in laboratory searches (through tiny accelerations they produce on macroscopic targets) or through astrophysical observations (looking for absorption dips in the flux of Ultra-High Energy neutrinos, due to the annihilation of these neutrinos with relic neutrinos at the Z-resonance). We concentrate mainly on the first of these two possibilities.Comment: Talk given at the Nobel Symposium on Neutrino Physics, Enkoping, Sweden, Augus 19-24, 2004; 16 page

Cost effectiveness of photodynamic therapy with verteporfin for age related macular degeneration: the UK case

AIM: To estimate the potential cost effectiveness of photodynamic therapy (PDT) with verteporfin in the UK setting. METHODS: Using data from a variety of sources a Markov model was built to produce estimates of the cost effectiveness (incremental cost per quality adjusted life year (QALY) and incremental cost per vision year gained) of PDT for two cohorts of patients (one with starting visual acuity (VA) of 20/40 and one at 20/100) with predominantly classic choroidal neovascular disease over a 2 year and 5 year time horizon. A government perspective and a treatment cost only perspective were considered. Probabilistic and one way sensitivity analyses were undertaken. RESULTS: From the government perspective, over the 2 year period, the expected incremental cost effectiveness ratios range from £286 000 (starting VA 20/100) to £76 000 (starting VA 20/40) per QALY gained and from £14 000 (20/100) to £34 000 (20/40) per vision year gained. A 5 year perspective yields incremental ratios less than £5000 for vision years gained and from £9000 (20/40) to £30 000 (20/100) for QALYs gained. Without societal or NHS cost offsets included, the 2 year incremental cost per vision year gained ranges from £20 000 (20/100) to £40 000 (20/40), and the 2 year incremental cost per QALY gained ranges from £412 000 (20/100) to £90 000 (20/40). The 5 year time frame shows expected costs of £7000 (20/40) to £10 000 (20/100) per vision year gained and from £38 000 (20/40) to £69 000 (20/100) per QALY gained. CONCLUSION: This evaluation suggests that early treatment (that is, treating eyes at less severe stages of disease) with PDT leads to increased efficiency. When considering only the cost of therapy, treating people at lower levels of visual acuity would probably not be considered cost effective. However, a broad perspective that incorporates other NHS treatment costs and social care costs suggests that over a long period of time, PDT may yield reasonable value for money

Beyond the DSGE Straitjacket

Academic macroeconomics and the research department of central banks have come to be dominated by Dynamic, Stochastic, General Equilibrium (DSGE) models based on micro-foundations of optimising representative agents with rational expectations. We argue that the dominance of this particular sort of DSGE and the resistance of some in the profession to alternatives has become a straitjacket that restricts empirical and theoretical experimentation and inhibits innovation and that the profession should embrace a more flexible approach to macroeconometric modelling. We describe one possible approach

High Spatial Resolution KAO Far-Infrared Observations of the Central Regions of Infrared-Bright Galaxies

We present new high spatial resolution Kuiper Airborne Observatory 50 micron and/or 100 micron data for 11 infrared-bright galaxies. We also tabulate previously published KAO data for 11 other galaxies, along with the IRAS data for the bulges of M 31 and M 81. We find that L(FIR)/L(B) and L(FIR)/L(H) correlate with CO (1 - 0) intensity and tau(100). Galaxies with optical or near-infrared signatures of OB stars in their central regions have higher values of I(CO) and tau(100), as well as higher far-infrared surface brightnesses and L(FIR)/L(B) and L(FIR)/L(H) ratios. L(FIR)/L(H(alpha)) does not correlate strongly with CO and tau(100). These results support a scenario in which OB stars dominate dust heating in the more active galaxies and older stars are important in quiescent bulges.Comment: 45 pages, to appear in Ap.J. vol. 468 (Sept. 1996). 17 postscript figures and 10 postscript tables available at ftp://ipac.caltech.edu/science/bsmith/ka

Viscous relaxation and collective oscillations in a trapped Fermi gas near the unitarity limit

The viscous relaxation time of a trapped two-component gas of fermions in its normal phase is calculated as a function of temperature and scattering length, with the collision probability being determined by an energy-dependent s-wave cross section. The result is used for calculating the temperature dependence of the frequency and damping of collective modes studied in recent experiments, starting from the kinetic equation for the fermion distribution function with mean-field effects included in the streaming terms.Comment: 10 pages, 9 figures; proof version, corrected typo in Eq. (23); accepted for publication in PR

Time-Series BVI Photometry for the Globular Cluster NGC 6981 (M72)

We present new BVI photometry of the globular cluster NGC 6981 (M72), based mostly on ground-based CCD archive images. We present a new color-magnitude diagram (CMD) that reaches almost four magnitudes below the turn-off level. We performed new derivations of metallicity and morphological parameters of the evolved sequences, in good agreement with previous authors, obtaining a value of [Fe/H] ~ -1.50 in the new UVES scale. We also identify the cluster's blue straggler population. Comparing the radial distribution of these stars with the red giant branch population, we find that the blue stragglers are more centrally concentrated, as found in previous studies of blue stragglers in globular clusters. Taking advantage of the large field of view covered by our study, we analyzed the surface density profile of the cluster, finding extratidal main sequence stars out to r ~ 14.1 arcmin or about twice the tidal radius. We speculate that this may be due to tidal disruption in the course of M72's orbit, in which case tidal tails associated with the cluster may exist. We also take a fresh look at the variable stars in the cluster, recovering all previous known variables, including three SX Phoenicis stars, and adding three previously unknown RR Lyrae (1 c-type and 2 ab-type) to the total census. Finally, comparing our CMD with unpublished data for M3 (NGC 5272), a cluster with similar metallicity and horizontal branch morphology, we found that both objects are essentially coeval.Comment: Accepted for publication in A

What if the UK had Joined the Euro in 1999? An Empirical Evaluation Using a Global VAR

This paper attempts to provide a conceptual framework for the analysis of counterfactual scenarios using macroeconometric models. As an application we consider UK entry to the euro. Entry involves a long-term commitment to restrict UK nominal exchange rates and interest rates to be the same as those of the euro area. We derive conditional probability distributions for the difference between the future realisations of variables of interest (e.g UK and euro area output and prices) subject to UK entry restrictions being fully met over a given period and the alternative realisations without the restrictions. The robustness of the results can be evaluated by also conditioning on variables deemed to be invariant to UK entry, such as oil or US equity prices. Economic interdependence means that such policy evaluation must take account of international linkages and common factors that drive fluctuations across economies. In this paper this is accomplished using the Global VAR recently developed by Dees, di Mauro, Pesaran and Smith (2005). The paper briefly describes the GVAR which has been estimated for 25 countries and the euro area over the period 1979-2003. It reports probability estimates that output will be higher and prices lower in the UK and the euro area as a result of entry. It examines the sensitivity of these results to a variety of assumptions about when and how the UK entered and the observed global shocks and compares them with the effects of Swedish entry.Global VAR (GVAR), counterfactual analysis, UK and Sweden entry to Euro