Detecting periodicity in experimental data using linear modeling techniques

Fourier spectral estimates and, to a lesser extent, the autocorrelation function are the primary tools to detect periodicities in experimental data in the physical and biological sciences. We propose a new method which is more reliable than traditional techniques, and is able to make clear identification of periodic behavior when traditional techniques do not. This technique is based on an information theoretic reduction of linear (autoregressive) models so that only the essential features of an autoregressive model are retained. These models we call reduced autoregressive models (RARM). The essential features of reduced autoregressive models include any periodicity present in the data. We provide theoretical and numerical evidence from both experimental and artificial data, to demonstrate that this technique will reliably detect periodicities if and only if they are present in the data. There are strong information theoretic arguments to support the statement that RARM detects periodicities if they are present. Surrogate data techniques are used to ensure the converse. Furthermore, our calculations demonstrate that RARM is more robust, more accurate, and more sensitive, than traditional spectral techniques.Comment: 10 pages (revtex) and 6 figures. To appear in Phys Rev E. Modified styl

GEMPAK: An arbitrary aircraft geometry generator

A computer program, GEMPAK, has been developed to aid in the generation of detailed configuration geometry. The program was written to allow the user as much flexibility as possible in his choices of configurations and the detail of description desired and at the same time keep input requirements and program turnaround and cost to a minimum. The program consists of routines that generate fuselage and planar-surface (winglike) geometry and a routine that will determine the true intersection of all components with the fuselage. This paper describes the methods by which the various geometries are generated and provides input description with sample input and output. Also included are descriptions of the primary program variables and functions performed by the various routines. The FORTRAN program GEMPAK has been used extensively in conjunction with interfaces to several aerodynamic and plotting computer programs and has proven to be an effective aid in the preliminary design phase of aircraft configurations

Reciprocal relationships in collective flights of homing pigeons

Collective motion of bird flocks can be explained via the hypothesis of many wrongs, and/or, a structured leadership mechanism. In pigeons, previous studies have shown that there is a well-defined hierarchical structure and certain specific individuals occupy more dominant positions --- suggesting that leadership by the few individuals drives the behavior of the collective. Conversely, by analyzing the same data-sets, we uncover a more egalitarian mechanism. We show that both reciprocal relationships and a stratified hierarchical leadership are important and necessary in the collective movements of pigeon flocks. Rather than birds adopting either exclusive averaging or leadership strategies, our experimental results show that it is an integrated combination of both compromise and leadership which drives the group's movement decisions.Comment: 7 pages, 5 figure

Time transfer between the Goddard Optical Research Facility and the U.S. Naval Observatory using 100 picosecond laser pulses

A horizontal two-way time comparison link in air between the University of Maryland laser ranging and time transfer equipment at the Goddard Optical Research Facility (GORF) 1.2 m telescope and the Time Services Division of the U.S. Naval Observatory (USNO) was established. Flat mirrors of 25 cm and 30 cm diameter respectively were placed on top of the Washington Cathedral and on a water tower at the Beltsville Agricultural Research Center. Two optical corner reflectors at the USNO reflect the laser pulses back to the GORF. Light pulses of 100 ps duration and an energy of several hundred microjoules are sent at the rate of 10 pulses per second. The detection at the USNO is by means of an RCA C30902E avalanche photodiode and the timing is accomplished by an HP 5370A computing counter and an HP 1000 computer with respect to a 10 pps pulse train from the Master Clock

An accretion model for the growth of the central black hole associated with ionization instability in quasars

A possible accretion model associated with the ionization instability of quasar disks is proposed to address the growth of the central black hole harbored in the host galaxy.The mass ratio between black hole and its host galactic bulge is a nature consequence of our model.Comment: submitted to ApJ, 15 page

Results of an aqueous source term model for a radiological risk assessment of the Drigg LLW Site, U.K.

A radionuclide source term model has been developed which simulates the biogeochemical evolution of the Drigg low level waste (LLW) disposal site. The DRINK (DRIgg Near field Kinetic) model provides data regarding radionuclide concentrations in groundwater over a period of 100,000 years, which are used as input to assessment calculations for a groundwater pathway. The DRINK model also provides input to human intrusion and gaseous assessment calculations through simulation of the solid radionuclide inventory. These calculations are being used to support the Drigg post closure safety case. The DRINK model considers the coupled interaction of the effects of fluid flow, microbiology, corrosion, chemical reaction, sorption and radioactive decay. It represents the first direct use of a mechanistic reaction-transport model in risk assessment calculations

Surreptitious sympatry:Exploring the ecological and genetic separation of two sibling species

Climate change is having profound impacts on animal populations, and shifts in geographic range are predicted in response. Shifts that result in range overlap between previously allopatric congeneric species may have consequences for biodiversity through interspecific competition, hybridization, and genetic introgression. Harbor seals (Phoca vitulina) and spotted seals (Phoca largha) are parapatric sibling species and areas of co‐occurrence at the edges of their range, such as Bristol Bay, Alaska, offer a unique opportunity to explore ecological separation and discuss potential consequences of increased range overlap resulting from retreating sea ice. Using telemetry and genetic data from 14 harbor seals and six spotted seals, we explored the ecological and genetic separation of the two species by comparing their utilization distributions, distance from haul‐out, dive behavior (e.g., depth, duration, focus), and evidence of hybridization. Firstly, we show that harbor and spotted seals, which cannot be visually distinguished definitively in all cases, haul‐out together side by side in Bristol Bay from late summer to early winter. Secondly, we observed subtle rather than pronounced differences in ranging patterns and dive behavior during this period. Thirdly, most spotted seals in this study remained close to shore in contrast to what is known of the species in more northern areas, and lastly, we did not find any evidence of hybridization. The lack of distinct ecological separation in this area of sympatry suggests that interspecific competition could play an important role in the persistence of these species, particularly if range overlap will increase as a result of climate‐induced range shifts and loss of spotted seal pagophilic breeding habitat. Our results also highlight the added complexities in monitoring these species in areas of suspected overlap, as they cannot easily be distinguished without genetic analysis. Predicted climate‐induced environmental change will likely influence the spatial and temporal extent of overlap in these two sibling species. Ultimately, this may alter the balance between current isolating mechanisms with consequences for species integrity and fitness

Midwife-led debriefing after operative birth: four to six year follow-up of a randomised trial [ISRCTN24648614]

BACKGROUND: There is little evidence that single-session debriefing is effective in reducing adverse mental health outcomes after trauma. Few trials have included long-term follow-up, but two also suggest possible negative effects of debriefing. We aimed to assess longer-term maternal health outcomes in a trial of midwife-led debriefing following an operative birth, given that findings at six months could not rule out a possible adverse effect of debriefing. METHODS: Four to six years after participating in a midwife-led trial of debriefing following an operative birth, 1039/1041 women were mailed a questionnaire containing the Edinburgh Postnatal Depression Scale (EPDS) and the SF-36 health status measure. RESULTS: Responses were obtained from 534 women (51.4%). Responders from the two trial groups remained comparable 4–6 years postpartum. No significant differences on maternal health outcomes were found between the trial groups. CONCLUSION: In the longer term, maternal health status was neither positively nor adversely affected by the experience of debriefing, despite a hint of adverse effects at six months postpartum. Short debriefing interventions have not proven effective in improving mental health outcomes for women following childbirth