Do subsidies matter in food price stabilization? Evidences from Ethiopia in a computable general equilibrium framework

In the poorest countries like Ethiopia the spillover effects of a soaring food price is unbearable. To mitigate the recent rise in food prices and the burden on urban poor consumers, policy makers have considered various measures. A recent shift from subsidizing oil to grain to ease the spiraling cost of food is one attempt the Ethiopian government has made so far. To this end, the government has removed an $800m annual subsidy on petroleum products and used the money to combat rising grain prices. Using the standard GTAP model and the recent GTAP Africa database, this paper simulates the overall implication of 5 and 10 percent increase of subsidy on wheat. Regarding the impact on prices, the simulation result tells us that prices have indeed fall. At macro level, the result reveals subsidy on wheat leads to a decline in the overall trade balance. In terms of welfare, the intervention is likely to have a positive impact.Food policy; price policy; WTO; Ethiopia; GTAP

Design analysis of a hybrid jet-pump CO2 compression system

Transport refrigeration contributes to anthropogenic global warming directly because of leakage of refrigerant, usually using high global warming potential (GWP) refrigerants, and indirectly because of the greenhouse gases emitted in driving the vehicle and the refrigeration system. A hybrid jet-pump CO2 compression system is being designed for transport refrigeration so that the GWP of the system is reduced and its performance improved. The jet-pump utilises waste heat from the exhaust gases of the engine to subcool the refrigerant and so enhance performance, reduce energy required from the engine and minimise GWP of the system. The hybrid jet-pump CO2 compression system has been simulated and its performance determined for different operating conditions and optimised using entropy generation minimisation. At an evaporator temperature of -18°C, an ambient temperature of 35°C and a generator temperature of 120°C, the COP increases from about 1.0 to 2.27 as the degree of subcooling increases from 0K to 20K. Similarly, compressor work is reduced by 24% at 20K subcooling. The optimum degree of subcooling was approximately 10K for the operating conditions described above. An improved COP is achieved whilst the size of heat exchangers required to operate the jet-pump are minimised with respect to the overall weight of the system and thus its impact on indirect emissions

Agricultural Efficiency Gains and Trade Liberalization in Sudan

The traditional agriculture in Sudan occupies 60% of the total cultivated land and employs 65% of the agricultural population. Nevertheless, it is characterized by its low crop productivity, which is mainly driven by low technical efficiency, while drought and civil conflicts threaten most of its areas countrywide. Therefore, it has contributed only an average of 16% to the total agricultural GDP during the last decade. This paper addresses from an empirical point of view the sectoral and macroeconomic implications of agricultural efficiency improvement in Sudan and assesses the efficiency gains under the assumption of trade liberalization. Efficiency improvement experiments are implemented by augmenting the efficiency parameters of labor, capital, and land in a Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) framework. The CGE model of the study relies on the newly produced Sudanese Social Accounting Matrix (SAM), which provides data on 10 agricultural sectors, 10 industrial sectors and 13 service sectors. Results show that improving the agricultural efficiency would lead to improvements in GDP, welfare level, and trade balance. In addition it would also improve the output and competitiveness of the Sudanese agricultural exports and increase their strength to face the challenges of liberalization.Agricultural efficiency, liberalization, Sudan SAM, CGE analysis, Agribusiness, Agricultural and Food Policy, Agricultural Finance, Consumer/Household Economics, Crop Production/Industries, Food Security and Poverty, Labor and Human Capital, Land Economics/Use, Production Economics, Productivity Analysis, D2, D5, D6, E1, E2, F1, F2, H2,

The impact of banning export of cereals in response to soaring food prices: Evidences from Ethiopia using the new GTAP African database

In the poorest countries like Ethiopia the spillover effects of a soaring food price is unbearable. To mitigate the recent rise in food prices and the burden on urban poor consumers, different measures have been considered by policy makers. Recently, Ethiopia banned the export of all grain products in a bid to stem huge price hikes. The export of indigenous grains, including the staple grains, like teff, maize, sorghum, and wheat are suspended indefinitely. Using the standard GTAP model and the recent GTAP Africa database, this paper simulates the overall implication of banning export of grains. Regarding the impact on prices, the simulation result tells us that prices are likely to fall. At macro level, the result reveals trade balance will not be decline following such actions. However, it has been shown that in terms of overall welfare the policy has a devastating impact as the country will likely to lose welfare equivalent of $ 148 million.Food price inflation;- export ban;- WTO:- Ethiopia;- GTAP

Qur’anic guidelines for personality development and collective work

Islam is a perfect religion and it provides a complete code of guidance in all human activities. Not only does it prescribe beliefs and rules governing man’s relationship with his Creator, the Almighty Allah swt, but it also lays down detailed guidelines regarding the conduct of man in his relationship with his fellow beings. This study explored on personality development and collective work which founded the key role in determining generic skills in Islam. This article is based on textual analysis of selected issues mainly in the Qur’an, sunnah of the Prophet Muhammad (pbuh) and other relevant sources in Islam. Overall, the findings show that personality development could be built up through physical training by merging their diet and nutrition with exercise, through spiritual training by purifying their soul via “tahajjud” and mental training by participating in “usrah” and acquainting with the reality of current society. For collective work, ta’aruf and tafahum, as the pre-requisites, should be practiced via ta’awun and takaful which could generate the multiple efforts of many people. This article is expected to highlight the Qur’anic guidelines for personality development and collective work in order to provide guidance to the Muslim especially graduates and employee

Global, regional, and national burden of disorders affecting the nervous system, 1990-2021:a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND: Disorders affecting the nervous system are diverse and include neurodevelopmental disorders, late-life neurodegeneration, and newly emergent conditions, such as cognitive impairment following COVID-19. Previous publications from the Global Burden of Disease, Injuries, and Risk Factor Study estimated the burden of 15 neurological conditions in 2015 and 2016, but these analyses did not include neurodevelopmental disorders, as defined by the International Classification of Diseases (ICD)-11, or a subset of cases of congenital, neonatal, and infectious conditions that cause neurological damage. Here, we estimate nervous system health loss caused by 37 unique conditions and their associated risk factors globally, regionally, and nationally from 1990 to 2021. METHODS: We estimated mortality, prevalence, years lived with disability (YLDs), years of life lost (YLLs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), with corresponding 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs), by age and sex in 204 countries and territories, from 1990 to 2021. We included morbidity and deaths due to neurological conditions, for which health loss is directly due to damage to the CNS or peripheral nervous system. We also isolated neurological health loss from conditions for which nervous system morbidity is a consequence, but not the primary feature, including a subset of congenital conditions (ie, chromosomal anomalies and congenital birth defects), neonatal conditions (ie, jaundice, preterm birth, and sepsis), infectious diseases (ie, COVID-19, cystic echinococcosis, malaria, syphilis, and Zika virus disease), and diabetic neuropathy. By conducting a sequela-level analysis of the health outcomes for these conditions, only cases where nervous system damage occurred were included, and YLDs were recalculated to isolate the non-fatal burden directly attributable to nervous system health loss. A comorbidity correction was used to calculate total prevalence of all conditions that affect the nervous system combined. FINDINGS: Globally, the 37 conditions affecting the nervous system were collectively ranked as the leading group cause of DALYs in 2021 (443 million, 95% UI 378-521), affecting 3·40 billion (3·20-3·62) individuals (43·1%, 40·5-45·9 of the global population); global DALY counts attributed to these conditions increased by 18·2% (8·7-26·7) between 1990 and 2021. Age-standardised rates of deaths per 100 000 people attributed to these conditions decreased from 1990 to 2021 by 33·6% (27·6-38·8), and age-standardised rates of DALYs attributed to these conditions decreased by 27·0% (21·5-32·4). Age-standardised prevalence was almost stable, with a change of 1·5% (0·7-2·4). The ten conditions with the highest age-standardised DALYs in 2021 were stroke, neonatal encephalopathy, migraine, Alzheimer's disease and other dementias, diabetic neuropathy, meningitis, epilepsy, neurological complications due to preterm birth, autism spectrum disorder, and nervous system cancer. INTERPRETATION: As the leading cause of overall disease burden in the world, with increasing global DALY counts, effective prevention, treatment, and rehabilitation strategies for disorders affecting the nervous system are needed. FUNDING: Bill &amp; Melinda Gates Foundation.</p

Global, regional, and national burden of disorders affecting the nervous system, 1990-2021:a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND: Disorders affecting the nervous system are diverse and include neurodevelopmental disorders, late-life neurodegeneration, and newly emergent conditions, such as cognitive impairment following COVID-19. Previous publications from the Global Burden of Disease, Injuries, and Risk Factor Study estimated the burden of 15 neurological conditions in 2015 and 2016, but these analyses did not include neurodevelopmental disorders, as defined by the International Classification of Diseases (ICD)-11, or a subset of cases of congenital, neonatal, and infectious conditions that cause neurological damage. Here, we estimate nervous system health loss caused by 37 unique conditions and their associated risk factors globally, regionally, and nationally from 1990 to 2021. METHODS: We estimated mortality, prevalence, years lived with disability (YLDs), years of life lost (YLLs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), with corresponding 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs), by age and sex in 204 countries and territories, from 1990 to 2021. We included morbidity and deaths due to neurological conditions, for which health loss is directly due to damage to the CNS or peripheral nervous system. We also isolated neurological health loss from conditions for which nervous system morbidity is a consequence, but not the primary feature, including a subset of congenital conditions (ie, chromosomal anomalies and congenital birth defects), neonatal conditions (ie, jaundice, preterm birth, and sepsis), infectious diseases (ie, COVID-19, cystic echinococcosis, malaria, syphilis, and Zika virus disease), and diabetic neuropathy. By conducting a sequela-level analysis of the health outcomes for these conditions, only cases where nervous system damage occurred were included, and YLDs were recalculated to isolate the non-fatal burden directly attributable to nervous system health loss. A comorbidity correction was used to calculate total prevalence of all conditions that affect the nervous system combined. FINDINGS: Globally, the 37 conditions affecting the nervous system were collectively ranked as the leading group cause of DALYs in 2021 (443 million, 95% UI 378-521), affecting 3·40 billion (3·20-3·62) individuals (43·1%, 40·5-45·9 of the global population); global DALY counts attributed to these conditions increased by 18·2% (8·7-26·7) between 1990 and 2021. Age-standardised rates of deaths per 100 000 people attributed to these conditions decreased from 1990 to 2021 by 33·6% (27·6-38·8), and age-standardised rates of DALYs attributed to these conditions decreased by 27·0% (21·5-32·4). Age-standardised prevalence was almost stable, with a change of 1·5% (0·7-2·4). The ten conditions with the highest age-standardised DALYs in 2021 were stroke, neonatal encephalopathy, migraine, Alzheimer's disease and other dementias, diabetic neuropathy, meningitis, epilepsy, neurological complications due to preterm birth, autism spectrum disorder, and nervous system cancer. INTERPRETATION: As the leading cause of overall disease burden in the world, with increasing global DALY counts, effective prevention, treatment, and rehabilitation strategies for disorders affecting the nervous system are needed. FUNDING: Bill &amp; Melinda Gates Foundation.</p

Improved computations of the voltage collapse point using the P-index

Online voltage stability assessment of power system is important to ensure reliability and security. Over the years, many voltage monitoring indices have been documented in the literature. These indices are designed to quantify proximity to voltage collapse. However, they all have inaccuracies when predicting the voltage collapse point. A recent research project resulted in a new robust voltage stability monitoring tool called the P-index. A method that utilizes linear approximation of Voltage-Load relationship was introduced alongside the P-index, providing enhanced precision compared to most recognized indices. However, this method generates a high level of inaccuracy because the actual Voltage-Load behavior in general is non-linear, but rather more complex. This study proposed two new models that take into account the nonlinearity of Voltage-Load relationship, providing an enhanced representation of its complexity. Moreover, these models have a higher accuracy in predicting voltage collapse points than the linear method

A Simplified P-Delta Second Order Numerical Analysis of High Rise Buildings: Formulation and Validation

In this paper, a simplified numerical method of global and local second order P-Delta 2D and 3D analysis of tall buildings subjected to vertical and horizontal loads is presented. The method was based on developing the moment transformation (MT) and the moment-force transformation (MFT) methods those are formulated using the moment distribution methods and have been successfully used in linear analysis of tall buildings neglecting and/or taking into account axial deformation in vertical members. The method was developed to include second order effects, by coupling the axial force and the bending moments in each of the vertical members with large lateral displacements at floor levels. Validity of the method was established by comparing the results of two 2D and 3D problems with those resulted from a reliable finite element approach. The comparisons show that, the results are in good agreement thus verifying the accuracy of the proposed metho

The Effectiveness and Applicability of Amphibians as Indicator Species for Long-Term Monitoring of Ecological Changes in New England Forests

The objective of this study is to assess the potential of two amphibians species, Eastern Red-backed Salamander (Plethodon cinereus (Green)) and Eastern Red-spotted Newt (Notopthalmus viridescens viridescens Rafinesque), as indicator species of forest disturbances at Harvard Forest, located in Petersham, Massachusetts, United States. Specifically, I 1) assess the impacts of these focal species to decline of hemlock forests in Harvard Forest; 2) calibrate abundance indices of P. cinereus based on artificial and natural objects surveys with a population size estimator based on depletion sampling; and 3) assess the potential of these salamanders as indicator species by developing an objective and multimetric method. My results showed that decline of Eastern Hemlock (Tsuga canadensis) forests due to invasive insects has increased the occupancy of P. cinereus but significantly reduced its estimated abundance and detection probability. Similarly, the estimated abundance of N. v. viridescens also declined dramatically after hemlock decline. The anticipated transition from forests dominated by T. canadensis to mixed-hardwood may alter the abundance and detection probability of both salamander species by up to 50%. Abundance indices based on both cover board and natural object surveys were able to be calibrated using density estimates of P. cinereus derived from depletion (removal) surveys. The cover-board abundance index was eight times higher than the estimated density of P. cinereus, whereas the natural object survey was half the size of the density estimator. I introduced the Indicator Species Potential (ISP) index – a multi-metric method to quantify the efficacy of indicator species in classifying sites, monitoring ecological changes, and assessing desired management conditions. When applied to salamanders as potential indicators of changes in forests in Massachusetts, the ISP suggests that P. cinereus is a reasonable indicator for ecological change in hemlock stands whereas N. viridescens is a potential IS in mixed hardwoods. Overall, the ISP shows promise as a method for summarizing ecological and statistical information about potential IS in a single value