Peer Effects in Sexual Initiation: Separating Demand and Supply Mechanisms

<p>Most work on social interactions studies a single, composite effect of interactions within a group. Yet in the case of sexual initiation there are two distinct social mechanisms— peer-group norms and partner availability—with separate effects and different potential interventions. Here I develop an equilibrium search and matching model for first sexual partners that specifies distinct roles for these two mechanisms as part of demand and supply. I estimate the model using a national sample of high school students, with data over time on individual virginity status. The results indicate that peer-group norms have a large effect on the timing of sexual initiation for both boys and girls. Changes in opposite-gender search behavior (i.e., partner availability) also have a large impact on initiation rates for boys, but not for girls.</p

Contagion in the European Sovereign Debt Crisis

<p>We use a network model of credit risk to measure market expectations of the potential spillovers from a sovereign default. Specifically, we develop an empirical model, based on the recent theoretical literature on contagion in financial networks, and estimate it with data on sovereign credit default swap spreads and the detailed structure of financial linkages among thirteen European sovereigns from 2005 to 2011. Simulations from the estimated model show that a sovereign default generates only small spillovers to other sovereigns. These results imply that credit markets do not demand a significant premium for the interconnectedness of sovereign debt in Europe.</p

Testing for changes in the SES-mortality gradient when the distribution of education changes too

<p>We develop a flexible test for changes in the SES-mortality gradient over time that accounts for how education, commonly used as the primary marker of SES, is distributed in the population. We implement the test for the period between 1984 and 2006 using microdata from the Census, CPS, and NHIS linked to death records. Using our flexible test, we find that the evidence for a change in the education-mortality gradient is not as strong and universal as previous research has suggested. Our results indicate that the gradient increased for females during this time period, but we cannot rule out that the gradient among males has not changed. Informally, the results suggest that the changes for females are mainly driven by the bottom of the education distribution.</p

Identification of Preferences in Network Formation Games

Given data on a large network, this paper provides a framework for identification of preferences under the assumption of pairwise stability of network links. Network data present difficulties for identification, especially when one allows for links between nodes in a network to be interdependent; e.g., where friends of friends matter. Given a preference specification, we use the observed proportions of various possible payoff-relevant local network structures to learn about the underlying parameters. We show how one can map the observed proportions of these local structures to sets of parameters that are consistent with the model and the data. Our main result provides necessary conditions for a set of parameters to contain the identified set, under general specifications of preferences. We also provide sufficient conditions—and hence a characterization of the identified set—for two empirically relevant classes of specifications. The paper then provides a quadratic programming algorithm that can be used to construct the identified sets. This algorithm is illustrated in a set of Monte Carlo experiments.</p

Health and Work Capacity of Older Adults: Estimates and Implications for Social Security Policy

<p>The simultaneous growth in longevity and mounting budget deficits in the U.S. have increased interest in raising the age of eligibility for public health and retirement benefits. The consequences of this policy depend on the health of the near elderly, and on the distribution of health by demographic group. We simulate the work capacity and likely disability experience of near elderly individuals (62-64 year-olds) based on the work, disability, and retirement status of slightly younger people. Our estimates, from two distinct data sets, indicate that work capacity is substantial at this age. Because health deteriorates very slowly from ages 60-65, labor force participation could rise by 15-20 percent for all demographic groups, while overall disability rates would change very little. However, less advantaged groups would face challenges in the labor market. The expected earnings of current non-workers without any college education are lower than similar workers, by 15 to 25 percent, indicating the uneven burden of changes in the age of eligibility</p