Economic Modeling of Livestock Disease Outbreaks

The paper surveys articles examining the economic impacts of a livestock disease outbreak and focuses on modeling issues. One set of papers considers setting an import barrier when there is a livestock disease risk. They show that the level of a risk-based import barrier is sensitive to the impact of disease on economic welfare. The remaining articles focus on estimates of the economic impacts. An outbreak is modeled in a U.S. agricultural sector model and shows the importance of lost exports and consumer response to the magnitude of losses. The final paper argues for de-composition of the welfare impacts. Lessons for future research include improved links to epidemiological research, improved inclusion of trade, extension to non-agricultural sectors, and knowledge of consumer response.Foot-and-mouth disease, Modeling, Trade, Livestock Production/Industries,

ECONOMICALLY DETERMINED LIVESTOCK QUARANTINE ZONES

This paper examines economic factors present when setting quarantine zones for contagious livestock diseases like foot-and-mouth disease (FMD). A conceptual model explores the trade-offs as zone size expands. One trade-off is between the cost of economic activity inside the zone and the benefits of reduced disease spread. There are also agricultural and non-agricultural price effects to consider. Two hypothetical counties are constructed to illustrate the ides. Town or city location is critical to the size. Livestock density is inversely related to zone size with low density regions able to reduce disease spread at relatively low cost.Livestock Production/Industries,

PRIORITIZATION OF THE SANITARY ISSUES LIMITING EXPORTS OF US LIVE ANIMALS AND GERMPLASM

This paper was presented at the INTERNATIONAL TRADE IN LIVESTOCK PRODUCTS SYMPOSIUM in Auckland, New Zealand, January 18-19, 2001. The Symposium was sponsored by: the International Agricultural Trade Research Consortium, the Venture Trust, Massey University, New Zealand, and the Centre for Applied Economics and Policy Studies, Massey University. Dietary changes, especially in developing countries, are driving a massive increase in demand for livestock products. The objective of this symposium was to examine the consequences of this phenomenon, which some have even called a "revolution." How are dietary patterns changing, and can increased demands for livestock products be satisfied from domestic resources? If so, at what cost? What will be the flow-on impacts, for example, in terms of increased demands for feedgrains and the pressures for change within marketing systems? A supply-side response has been the continued development of large-scale, urban-based industrial livestock production systems that in many cases give rise to environmental concerns. If additional imports seem required, where will they originate and what about food security in the importing regions? How might market access conditions be re-negotiated to make increased imports achievable? Other important issues discussed involved food safety, animal health and welfare and the adoption of biotechnology, and their interactions with the negotiation of reforms to domestic and trade policies. Individual papers from this conference are available on AgEcon Search. If you would like to see the complete agenda and set of papers from this conference, please visit the IATRC Symposium web page at: http://www1.umn.edu/iatrc.intro.ht

PRIORITIZATION OF THE SANITARY ISSUES LIMITING EXPORTS OF US LIVE ANIMALS AND GERMPLASM

This paper was presented at the INTERNATIONAL TRADE IN LIVESTOCK PRODUCTS SYMPOSIUM in Auckland, New Zealand, January 18-19, 2001. The Symposium was sponsored by: the International Agricultural Trade Research Consortium, the Venture Trust, Massey University, New Zealand, and the Centre for Applied Economics and Policy Studies, Massey University. Dietary changes, especially in developing countries, are driving a massive increase in demand for livestock products. The objective of this symposium was to examine the consequences of this phenomenon, which some have even called a "revolution." How are dietary patterns changing, and can increased demands for livestock products be satisfied from domestic resources? If so, at what cost? What will be the flow-on impacts, for example, in terms of increased demands for feedgrains and the pressures for change within marketing systems? A supply-side response has been the continued development of large-scale, urban-based industrial livestock production systems that in many cases give rise to environmental concerns. If additional imports seem required, where will they originate and what about food security in the importing regions? How might market access conditions be re-negotiated to make increased imports achievable? Other important issues discussed involved food safety, animal health and welfare and the adoption of biotechnology, and their interactions with the negotiation of reforms to domestic and trade policies. Individual papers from this conference are available on AgEcon Search. If you would like to see the complete agenda and set of papers from this conference, please visit the IATRC Symposium web page at: http://www1.umn.edu/iatrc.intro.htmInternational Relations/Trade, Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety,

A Survey of Theoretical and Empirical Literature Related to Export Assistance

The literature about export assistance divides such programs according to whether they apply to each unit of a particular commodity exported by the subsidizing country or whether they are targeted toward specific markets. These global and targeted export assistance programs are further distinguished by whether payment of the subsidies is made in cash or in kind. Traditional theory determines global cash export assistance to be welfare reducing for the exporter, while the effect of global export assistance paid in kind depends on the cost of in kind subsidies. Global cash assistance may become a rational instrument for capturing of greater market shares in the future or for satisfying influential political interest groups. Targeted assistance offers potential benefits to the exporting country by directing subsidies toward markets with greater income and substitution effects, leading to greater price responsiveness. However, empirical studies find that targeted assistance offers only small benefits in expanding exports and causes substantial disruptions in trade flows

The Export Enhancement Program: How Has It Affected Wheat Exports

The United States subsidized 50 percent of its wheat exports between 1985 and 1988 under the Export Enhancement Program (EEP) in an attempt to expand U.S. exports and counter European Community export subsidies. The Department of Agriculture uses a complex bidding process to award EEP subsidies to targeted countries. The program grew steadily from 1985 through mid-1988, with wheat accounting for over 80 percent of EEP sales value. Economic analysis indicates that the program raised U.S. wheat export volume, prices, and gross export revenues. But net export revenues rose only slightly once the value of commodities from Government inventories awarded to exporters under the EEP is taken into account

Economic Impacts of Regionalization of a Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza Outbreak in the United States

This analysis examines the economic impact of an outbreak of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) and the consequences of regionalization. The results suggest that an outbreak would have serious economic effects. Depending on the regionalization scenario, returns to capital and management in the poultry meat and egg sectors would fall between $602 million and$853 million dollars over 16 quarters. Consumers of poultry meat lose $900 million in consumer surplus in the first four quarters, a decline of 10.7%. Egg consumer surplus falls 17.1%. Regionalization lowers the economic welfare losses for producers because it dampens the export loss

ECONOMICALLY DETERMINED LIVESTOCK QUARANTINE ZONES

This paper examines economic factors present when setting quarantine zones for contagious livestock diseases like foot-and-mouth disease (FMD). A conceptual model explores the trade-offs as zone size expands. One trade-off is between the cost of economic activity inside the zone and the benefits of reduced disease spread. There are also agricultural and non-agricultural price effects to consider. Two hypothetical counties are constructed to illustrate the ides. Town or city location is critical to the size. Livestock density is inversely related to zone size with low density regions able to reduce disease spread at relatively low cost