Asymptotics of empirical copula processes under non-restrictive smoothness assumptions

Weak convergence of the empirical copula process is shown to hold under the assumption that the first-order partial derivatives of the copula exist and are continuous on certain subsets of the unit hypercube. The assumption is non-restrictive in the sense that it is needed anyway to ensure that the candidate limiting process exists and has continuous trajectories. In addition, resampling methods based on the multiplier central limit theorem, which require consistent estimation of the first-order derivatives, continue to be valid. Under certain growth conditions on the second-order partial derivatives that allow for explosive behavior near the boundaries, the almost sure rate in Stute's representation of the empirical copula process can be recovered. The conditions are verified, for instance, in the case of the Gaussian copula with full-rank correlation matrix, many Archimedean copulas, and many extreme-value copulas.Comment: Published in at http://dx.doi.org/10.3150/11-BEJ387 the Bernoulli (http://isi.cbs.nl/bernoulli/) by the International Statistical Institute/Bernoulli Society (http://isi.cbs.nl/BS/bshome.htm

Hybrid Copula Estimators

An extension of the empirical copula is considered by combining an estimator of a multivariate cumulative distribution function with estimators of the marginal cumulative distribution functions for marginal estimators that are not necessarily equal to the margins of the joint estimator. Such a hybrid estimator may be reasonable when there is additional information available for some margins in the form of additional data or stronger modelling assumptions. A functional central limit theorem is established and some examples are developed.Comment: 17 page

Max-stable models for multivariate extremes

Multivariate extreme-value analysis is concerned with the extremes in a multivariate random sample, that is, points of which at least some components have exceptionally large values. Mathematical theory suggests the use of max-stable models for univariate and multivariate extremes. A comprehensive account is given of the various ways in which max-stable models are described. Furthermore, a construction device is proposed for generating parametric families of max-stable distributions. Although the device is not new, its role as a model generator seems not yet to have been fully exploited.Comment: Invited paper for RevStat Statistical Journal. 22 pages, 3 figure

Rank-based inference for bivariate extreme-value copulas

Consider a continuous random pair $(X,Y)$ whose dependence is characterized by an extreme-value copula with Pickands dependence function $A$. When the marginal distributions of $X$ and $Y$ are known, several consistent estimators of $A$ are available. Most of them are variants of the estimators due to Pickands [Bull. Inst. Internat. Statist. 49 (1981) 859--878] and Cap\'{e}ra\`{a}, Foug\`{e}res and Genest [Biometrika 84 (1997) 567--577]. In this paper, rank-based versions of these estimators are proposed for the more common case where the margins of $X$ and $Y$ are unknown. Results on the limit behavior of a class of weighted bivariate empirical processes are used to show the consistency and asymptotic normality of these rank-based estimators. Their finite- and large-sample performance is then compared to that of their known-margin analogues, as well as with endpoint-corrected versions thereof. Explicit formulas and consistent estimates for their asymptotic variances are also given.Comment: Published in at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/08-AOS672 the Annals of Statistics (http://www.imstat.org/aos/) by the Institute of Mathematical Statistics (http://www.imstat.org

Rare Events, Temporal Dependence and the Extremal Index

AMS classifications: 60G70; 62G32;block maximum;exceedance;extremal index;failure set;mixing condition;M4 process;rare event;stationary sequence

Regularly varying time series in Banach spaces

When a spatial process is recorded over time and the observation at a given time instant is viewed as a point in a function space, the result is a time series taking values in a Banach space. To study the spatio-temporal extremal dynamics of such a time series, the latter is assumed to be jointly regularly varying. This assumption is shown to be equivalent to convergence in distribution of the rescaled time series conditionally on the event that at a given moment in time it is far away from the origin. The limit is called the tail process or the spectral process depending on the way of rescaling. These processes provide convenient starting points to study, for instance, joint survival functions, tail dependence coefficients, extremograms, extremal indices, and point processes of extremes. The theory applies to linear processes composed of infinite sums of linearly transformed independent random elements whose common distribution is regularly varying.Comment: 36 page