Monitoring financial stability: a financial conditions index approach

Monitoring financial stability requires an understanding of both how traditional and evolving financial markets relate to each other and how they relate to economic conditions. This article describes two new indexes of financial conditions that aim to quantify these relationships.Financial stability ; Financial crises ; Finance

Gathering insights on the forest from the trees: a new metric for financial conditions

By incorporating the Harvey accumulator into the large approximate dynamic factor framework of Doz et al. (2006), we are able to construct a coincident index of financial conditions from a large unbalanced panel of mixed frequency financial indicators. We relate our financial conditions index, or FCI, to the concept of a "financial crisis" using Markov-switching techniques. After demonstrating the ability of the index to capture "crisis" periods in U.S. financial history, we present several policy-geared threshold rules for the FCI using Receiver Operator Characteristics (ROC) curve analysis.Financial crises ; Financial markets

Chicago Fed National Activity Index turns ten - analyzing its first decade of performance

This article discusses how the Chicago Fed National Activity Index has performed as a “real-time” indicator of economic activity and related inflationary pressure.

Cold dark matter models with high baryon content

Recent results have suggested that the density of baryons in the Universe, OmegaB, is much more uncertain than previously thought, and may be significantly higher. We demonstrate that a higher OmegaB increases the viability of critical-density cold dark matter (CDM) models. High baryon fraction offers the twin benefits of boosting the first peak in the microwave anisotropy power spectrum and of suppressing short-scale power in the matter power spectrum. These enable viable CDM models to have a larger Hubble constant than otherwise possible. We carry out a general exploration of high OmegaB CDM models, varying the Hubble constant h and the spectral index n. We confront a variety of observational constraints and discuss specific predictions. Although some observational evidence may favour baryon fractions as high as 20 per cent, we find that values around 10 to 15 per cent provide a reasonable fit to a wide range of data. We suggest that models with OmegaB in this range, with h about 0.5 and n about 0.8, are currently the best critical-density CDM models.Comment: 14 pages, LaTeX, with 9 included figures, to appear in MNRAS. Revised version includes updated references, some changes to section 4. Conclusions unchange

The oral-aboral axis of a sea urchin embryo is specified by first cleavage

Several lines of evidence suggest that the oral-aboral axis in Strongylocentrotus purpuratus embryos is specified at or before the 8-cell stage. Were the oral-aboral axis specified independently of the first cleavage plane, then a random association of this plane with the blastomeres of the four embryo quadrants in the oral-aboral plane (viz. oral, aboral, right and left) would be expected. Lineage tracer dye injection into one blastomere at the 2-cell stage and observation of the resultant labeling patterns demonstrates instead a strongly nonrandom association. In at least ninety percent of cases, the progeny of the aboral blastomeres are associated with those of the left lateral blastomeres and the progeny of the oral blastomeres with the right lateral ones, respectively. Thus, ninety percent of the time the oral pole of the future oral-aboral axis lies 45 degrees clockwise from the first cleavage plane as viewed from the animal pole. The nonrandom association of blastomeres after labeling of the 2-cell stage implies that there is a mechanistic relation between axis specification and the positioning of the first cleavage plane

Macromere cell fates during sea urchin development

This paper examines the cell lineage relationships and cell fates in embryos of the sea urchin Strongylocentrotus purpuratus leading to the various cell types derived from the definitive vegetal plate territory or the veg_2 tier of cells. These cell types are gut, pigment cells, basal cells and coelomic pouches. They are cell types that constitute embryonic structures through cellular migration or rearrangement unlike the relatively non-motile ectoderm cell types. For this analysis, we use previous knowledge of lineage to assign macromeres to one of four types: VOM, the oral macromere; VAM, the aboral macromere, right and left VLM, the lateral macromeres. Each of the four macromeres contributes progeny to all of the cell types that descend from the definitive vegetal plate. Thus in the gut each macromere contributes to the esophagus, stomach and intestine, and the stripe of labeled cells descendant from a macromere reflects the re-arrangement of cells that occurs during archenteron elongation. Pigment cell contributions exhibit no consistent pattern among the four macromeres, and are haphazardly distributed throughout the ectoderm. Gut and pigment cell contributions are thus radially symmetrical. In contrast, the VOM blastomere contributes to both of the coelomic pouches while the other three macromeres contribute to only one or the other pouch. The total of the macromere contribution amounts to 60% of the cells constituting the coelomic pouches