An Update on Experimental Climate Prediction and Analysis Products Being Developed at NASA's Global Modeling and Assimilation Office

The Global Modeling and Assimilation Office at NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center is developing a number of experimental prediction and analysis products suitable for research and applications. The prediction products include a large suite of subseasonal and seasonal hindcasts and forecasts (as a contribution to the US National MME), a suite of decadal (10-year) hindcasts (as a contribution to the IPCC decadal prediction project), and a series of large ensemble and high resolution simulations of selected extreme events, including the 2010 Russian and 2011 US heat waves. The analysis products include an experimental atlas of climate (in particular drought) and weather extremes. This talk will provide an update on those activities, and discuss recent efforts by WCRP to leverage off these and similar efforts at other institutions throughout the world to develop an experimental global drought early warning system

Drought Predictability and Prediction in a Changing Climate: Assessing Current Predictive Knowledge and Capabilities, User Requirements and Research Priorities

Drought is fundamentally the result of an extended period of reduced precipitation lasting anywhere from a few weeks to decades and even longer. As such, addressing drought predictability and prediction in a changing climate requires foremost that we make progress on the ability to predict precipitation anomalies on subseasonal and longer time scales. From the perspective of the users of drought forecasts and information, drought is however most directly viewed through its impacts (e.g., on soil moisture, streamflow, crop yields). As such, the question of the predictability of drought must extend to those quantities as well. In order to make progress on these issues, the WCRP drought information group (DIG), with the support of WCRP, the Catalan Institute of Climate Sciences, the La Caixa Foundation, the National Aeronautics and Space Administration, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, and the National Science Foundation, has organized a workshop to focus on: 1. User requirements for drought prediction information on sub-seasonal to centennial time scales 2. Current understanding of the mechanisms and predictability of drought on sub-seasonal to centennial time scales 3. Current drought prediction/projection capabilities on sub-seasonal to centennial time scales 4. Advancing regional drought prediction capabilities for variables and scales most relevant to user needs on sub-seasonal to centennial time scales. This introductory talk provides an overview of these goals, and outlines the occurrence and mechanisms of drought world-wide

An analysis of tropopause pressure and total ozone correlations

A study of the relationship between total ozone and tropopause pressure was carried out using Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer (TOMS) data and National Meteorological Center (NMC) global analyses. The medium scales generally show correlations greater than 0.6 throughout the middle latitudes of both hemispheres with some regions exceeding 0.8. The areas of highest correlations seem to be associated with the storm track regions of both the Northern and Southern Hemispheres. A detailed spectral analysis is performed for the medium scales on five pairs of time series of area averaged tropopause pressure and total ozone. In middle latitudes, total ozone and tropopause pressure exhibit generally similar distributions in the power spectrum. In the subtropics and tropics the power in ozone drops off more rapidly with increasing frequency than the power in tropopause pressure. Only in the Northern Hemisphere middle latitudes does one find a clear association between increased power in ozone and tropopause pressure and maxima in the coherency spectrum. Results for large scales are more complicated, showing generally positive correlations at middle latitudes

Designing an Optimal Ensemble Strategy for GMAO S2S Forecast System

The NASA Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO) Sub-seasonal to Seasonal (S2S) prediction system is being readied for a major upgrade. An important factor in successful extended range forecasting is the definition of the ensemble. Our overall strategy is to run a relatively large ensemble of about 40 members up to 3 months (focusing on the sub-seasonal forecast problem), after which we sub-sample the ensemble, and continue the forecast with about 10 members (up to 12 months). Here we present the results of our testing of various ways to generate the initial perturbations and the validation of a stratified sampling approach for choosing the members of the smaller ensemble. For the initialization of the ensemble we propose a combination of lagged and burst initial conditions. To generate perturbations for the burst ensemble members we used scaled differences of pairs of analysis states (chosen randomly from the corresponding season) separated by 1-10 days. We consider perturbing separately the atmosphere and the ocean, or both. By varying the separation times between the analysis states, we are able to produce perturbations that resemble well-known modes of variability. Focusing on the ENSO SST indices, we found that all types of perturbations are important for the ensemble spread with, however, considerable differences in the timing of the impacts on spread for the atmospheric and oceanic perturbations.Our initial (larger) ensemble size was determined so as to maximize the skill of predicting some of the leading modes of boreal winter atmospheric modes (namely the NAO, PNA and AO). Since it is not feasible for us to run with the larger ensemble beyond about 3 months, we employ a stratified sampling procedure that identifies the emerging directions of error growth to subset the ensemble. By comparing the results from the stratified ensemble with that of the randomly sampled ensemble of the same size, we find that the former provides substantially better estimates the mean of the original large ensemble

Prediction Activities at NASA's Global Modeling and Assimilation Office

The Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO) is a core NASA resource for the development and use of satellite observations through the integrating tools of models and assimilation systems. Global ocean, atmosphere and land surface models are developed as components of assimilation and forecast systems that are used for addressing the weather and climate research questions identified in NASA's science mission. In fact, the GMAO is actively engaged in addressing one of NASA's science mission s key questions concerning how well transient climate variations can be understood and predicted. At weather time scales the GMAO is developing ultra-high resolution global climate models capable of resolving high impact weather systems such as hurricanes. The ability to resolve the detailed characteristics of weather systems within a global framework greatly facilitates addressing fundamental questions concerning the link between weather and climate variability. At sub-seasonal time scales, the GMAO is engaged in research and development to improve the use of land information (especially soil moisture), and in the improved representation and initialization of various sub-seasonal atmospheric variability (such as the MJO) that evolves on time scales longer than weather and involves exchanges with both the land and ocean The GMAO has a long history of development for advancing the seasonal-to-interannual (S-I) prediction problem using an older version of the coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model (AOGCM). This includes the development of an Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF) to facilitate the multivariate assimilation of ocean surface altimetry, and an EnKF developed for the highly inhomogeneous nature of the errors in land surface models, as well as the multivariate assimilation needed to take advantage of surface soil moisture and snow observations. The importance of decadal variability, especially that associated with long-term droughts is well recognized by the climate community. An improved understanding of the nature of decadal variability and its predictability has important implications for efforts to assess the impacts of global change in the coming decades. In fact, the GMAO has taken on the challenge of carrying out experimental decadal predictions in support of the IPCC AR5 effort

Workshop on the Development of an Experimental Global Drought Information System (GDIS): Overview of Workshop Goals

Among the key recommendations of a recent WCRP Workshop on Drought Predictability and Prediction in a Changing Climate is the development of an experimental global drought information system (GDIS). The timeliness of such an effort is evidenced by the wide aITay of relevant ongoing national and international (as well as regional and continental scale) efforts to provide drought information, including the US and North American drought monitors, and various integrating activities such as GEO and the Global Drought Portal. The workshop will review current capabilities and needs, and focus on the steps necessary to develop a GDIS that will build upon the extensive worldwide investments that have already been made in developing drought monitoring (including new space-based observations), drought risk management, and climate prediction capahilities

Designing an Optimal Ensemble Strategy for GMAO S2S Forecast System

GMAO Sub/Seasonal prediction system (S2S) is being readied for a major upgrade to GEOS-S2S Version 3. An important factor in successful extended range forecast is the definition of an ensemble For initialization of the ensemble we propose a combination of lagged and burst initial conditions. We plan to run a relatively large ensemble of 40 members for sub-seasonal forecast (up to 3 months), at which point we sub-sample the ensemble, and continue the forecast with 10 members (up to 12 months). Here we present the results of the extensive testing of various ways to generate the perturbations to the initial conditions and the validation of the stratified sampling strategy we chose.To generate perturbations for the burst ensemble members we used scaled differences of pairs of analysis states separated by 1-10 days, randomly chosen from a corresponding season. We considered perturbing separately only the atmospheric fields or only the ocean or both of the forecast initial conditions. Considering varying separation times between the analysis states, we were able to produce perturbations sampling various modes of variability. Focusing on the ENSO SST indices, we found that all types of perturbations are important for the ensemble spread.Our ensemble size for sub-seasonal forecasts was determined as to maximize the skill of predicting some of the leading modes of boreal winter atmospheric modes, NAO, PNA and AO. It is not feasible to run equally large ensemble for seasonal forecasts. Using a stratified sampling procedure we can identify the emerging directions of error growth. By comparing the stratified ensemble with randomly sampled ensemble of the same size, we were able to show that the former better estimates the mean of the original large ensemble

Phase Locking of the Boreal Summer Atmospheric Response to Dry Land Surface Anomalies in the Northern Hemisphere

Past modeling simulations, supported by observational composites, indicate that during boreal summer, dry soil moisture anomalies in very different locations within the United States continental interior tend to induce the same upper-tropospheric circulation pattern: a high anomaly forms over west-central North America and a low anomaly forms to the east. The present study investigates the causes of this apparent phase locking of the upper-level circulation response and extends the investigation to other land regions in the Northern Hemisphere. The phase locking over North America is found to be induced by zonal asymmetries in the local basic state originating from North American orography. Specifically, orography-induced zonal variations of air temperature, those in the lower troposphere in particular, and surface pressure play a dominant role in placing the soil moisture-forced negative Rossby wave source (dominated by upper-level divergence anomalies) over the eastern leeside of the Western Cordillera, which subsequently produces an upper-level high anomaly over west-central North America, with the downstream anomalous circulation responses phase-locked by continuity. The zonal variations of the local climatological atmospheric circulation, manifested as a climatological high over central North America, help shape the spatial pattern of the upper-level circulation responses. Considering the rest of the Northern Hemisphere, the northern Middle East exhibits similar phase locking, also induced by local orography. The Middle Eastern phase locking, however, is not as pronounced as that over North America; North America is where soil moisture anomalies have the greatest impact on the upper-tropospheric circulation

The Precipitation Response Over the Continental United States to Cold Tropical Pacific Sea Surface Temperatures

The dominant pattern of annual mean SST variability in the Pacific (in its cold phase) produces pronounced precipitation deficits over the continental United States (U.S.) throughout the annual cycle. This study investigates the physical and dynamical processes through which the cold Pacific pattern affects the U.S. precipitation, particularly the causes for the peak dry impacts in fall, as well as the nature of the differences between the summer and fall responses. Results, based on observations and reanalyses, show that the peak precipitation deficit over the U.S. during fall is primarily due to reduced atmospheric moisture transport from the Gulf of Mexico into the central and eastern U.S., and secondarily due to a reduction in local evaporation from land-atmosphere feedback. The former is associated with a strong and systematic low-level northeasterly flow anomaly over the southeastern U.S. that counteracts the northwest branch of the climatological flow associated with the north Atlantic subtropical high. The above northeasterly anomaly is maintained by both diabatic heating anomalies in the nearby Intra-American Seas and diabatic cooling anomalies in the tropical Pacific. In contrast, the modest summertime precipitation deficit over the U.S. is mainly the result of local land-atmosphere feedback; the rather weak and disorganized atmospheric circulation anomalies over and to the south of the U.S. make little contribution. An evaluation of NSIPP-1 AGCM simulations shows it to be deficient in simulating the warm season tropical convection responses over the Intra-American Seas to the cold Pacific pattern and thereby the precipitation responses over the U.S., a problem that appears to be common to many AGCMs

Causes of the Extreme Dry Conditions Over California During Early 2013

The 2013 SST anomalies produced a predilection for California drought, whereas the long-term warming trend appears to make no appreciable contribution because of the counteraction between its dynamical and thermodynamic effects