A Solar Constant Model for Sun-climate Studies: 1600-2000AD

Discussed here is the solar constant model published recently (Schatten, 1988), but with a modified phasing and amplitude. This model enables the known solar constant variations to be calculated from known active region and quiet region solar parameters. The features which can be modelled are sunspots and faculae, the only two features which mark the photospheric continuum with their unusual contrast behavior. They include both the active region features (sunspots and faculae) and the quiet region features (global faculae). Although the direct influences of sunspots upon the solar constant leads to short term decreases, an opposite, nearly in phase, 11 year variation in the solar constant is modelled, thereby agreeing with the Active Cavity Radiometer Irradiance Monitor (ACRIM) and Earth Radiation Budget (ERB) secular trends observed. This opposite behavior results primarily from global faculae (polar, network, and active region). The main contributors to the global behavior are the network faculae. The model attributes the observed variations in the solar constant entirely to magnetic features in the solar atmosphere. The present model serves purely to model the secular (long term) trend in the solar constant. The model suggests a change of approx. 0.5 W/sq m for the differences between the late twentieth century solar constant and the 17th century solar constant. This supports Eddy's view that this difference could give rise to the glacial increase during the little ice age of the 17th century. Important for present day climate studies, is that it shows the recent peak activity (peaking in 1958) is associated with an atypically high value of the solar constant, with respect to the past few hundred years

Phlegethon flow: A proposed origin for spicules and coronal heating

A model was develped for the mass, energy, and magnetic field transport into the corona. The focus is on the flow below the photosphere which allows the energy to pass into, and be dissipated within, the solar atmosphere. The high flow velocities observed in spicules are explained. A treatment following the work of Bailyn et al. (1985) is examined. It was concluded that within the framework of the model, energy may dissipate at a temperature comparable to the temperature where the waves originated, allowing for an equipartition solution of atmospheric flow, departing the sun at velocities approaching the maximum Alfven speed

Climate Impact of Solar Variability

The conference on The Climate Impact of Solar Variability, was held at Goddard Space Flight Center from April 24 to 27, 1990. In recent years they developed a renewed interest in the potential effects of increasing greenhouse gases on climate. Carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide, and the chlorofluorocarbons have been increasing at rates that could significantly change climate. There is considerable uncertainty over the magnitude of this anthropogenic change. The climate system is very complex, with feedback processes that are not fully understood. Moreover, there are two sources of natural climate variability (volcanic aerosols and solar variability) added to the anthropogenic changes which may confuse our interpretation of the observed temperature record. Thus, if we could understand the climatic impact of the natural variability, it would aid our interpretation and understanding of man-made climate changes

An Early Prediction of the Amplitude of Solar Cycle 25

A Solar Dynamo (SODA) Index prediction of the amplitude of Solar Cycle 25 is described. The SODA Index combines values of the solar polar magnetic field and the solar spectral irradiance at 10.7 cm to create a precursor of future solar activity. The result is an envelope of solar activity that minimizes the 11-year period of the sunspot cycle. We show that the variation in time of the SODA Index is similar to several wavelet transforms of the solar spectral irradiance at 10.7 cm. Polar field predictions for Solar Cycles 21 24 are used to show the success of the polar field precursor in previous sunspot cycles. Using the present value of the SODA index, we estimate that the next cycles smoothed peak activity will be about 140 30 solar flux units for the 10.7 cm radio flux and a Version 2 sunspot number of 135 25. This suggests that Solar Cycle 25 will be comparable to Solar Cycle 24. The estimated peak is expected to occur near 2025.2 1.5 year. Because the current approach uses data prior to solar minimum, these estimates may improve as the upcoming solar minimum draws closer

Non-Newtonian gravity or gravity anomalies?

Geophysical measurements of G differ from laboratory values, indicating that gravity may be non-Newtonian. A spherical harmonic formulation is presented for the variation of (Newtonian) gravity inside the Earth. Using the GEM-10B Earth Gravitational Field Model, it is shown that long-wavelength gravity anomalies, if not corrected, may masquerade as non-Newtonian gravity by providing significant influences on experimental observation of delta g/delta r and G. An apparent contradiction in other studies is also resolved: i.e., local densities appear in equations when average densities of layers seem to be called for

Solar Field Mapping and Dynamo Behavior

We discuss the importance of the Sun’s large-scale magnetic field to the Sun-Planetary environment. This paper narrows its focus down to the motion and evolution of the photospheric large-scale magnetic field which affects many environments throughout this region. For this purpose we utilize a newly developed Netlogo cellular automata model. The domain of this algorithmic model is the Sun’s photosphere. Within this computational space are placed two types of entities or agents; one may refer to them as bluebirds and cardinals; the former carries outward magnetic flux and the latter carries out inward magnetic flux. One may simply call them blue and red agents. The agents provide a granularity with discrete changes not present in smooth MHD models; they undergo three processes: birth, motion, and death within the photospheric domain. We discuss these processes, as well as how we are able to develop a model that restricts its domain to the photosphere and allows the deeper layers to be considered only through boundary conditions. We show the model’s ability to mimic a number of photospheric magnetic phenomena: the solar cycle (11-year) oscillations, the Waldmeier effect, unipolar magnetic regions (e.g. sectors and coronal holes), Maunder minima, and the march/rush to the poles involving the geometry of magnetic field reversals. We also discuss why the Sun sometimes appears as a magnetic monopole, which of course requires no alteration of Maxwell’s equations