Model-Specific Radiative Kernels for Calculating Cloud and Noncloud Climate Feedbacks

Radiative kernels have become a common tool for evaluating and comparing radiative feedbacks to climate change in different general circulation models. However, kernel feedback calculations are inaccurate for simulations where the atmosphere is significantly perturbed from its base state, such as for very large forcing or perturbed physics simulations. In addition, past analyses have not produced kernels relating to prognostic cloud variables because of strong nonlinearities in their relationship to radiative forcing. A new methodology is presented that allows for fast statistical optimizing of existing kernels such that accuracy is increased for significantly altered climatologies. International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project (ISCCP) simulator output is used to relate changes in cloud-type histograms to radiative fluxes. With minimal additional computation, an individual set of kernels is created for each climate experiment such that climate feedbacks can be reliably estimated even in significantly perturbed climates. This methodology is applied to successive generations of the Community Atmosphere Model (CAM). Increased climate sensitivity in CAM5 is shown to be due to reduced negative stratus and stratocumulus feedbacks in the tropics and midlatitudes, strong positive stratus feedbacks in the southern oceans, and a strengthened positive longwave cirrus feedback. Results also suggest that CAM5 exhibits a stronger surface albedo feedback than its predecessors, a feature not apparent when using a single kernel. Optimized kernels for CAM5 suggest weaker global-mean shortwave cloud feedback than one would infer from using the original kernels and an adjusted cloud radiative forcing methodology.Keywords: Clouds, Optimization, Cloud retrieval, Statistical techniques, Climate models, Climate sensitivit

Projected drought risk in 1.5°C and 2°C warmer climates

The large socioeconomic costs of droughts make them a crucial target for impact assessments of climate change scenarios. Using multiple drought metrics and a set of simulations with the Community Earth System Model targeting 1.5°C and 2°C above preindustrial global mean temperatures, we investigate changes in aridity and the risk of consecutive drought years. If warming is limited to 2°C, these simulations suggest little change in drought risk for the U.S. Southwest and Central Plains compared to present day. In the Mediterranean and central Europe, however, drought risk increases significantly for both 1.5°C and 2°C warming targets, and the additional 0.5°C of the 2°C climate leads to significantly higher drought risk. Our study suggests that limiting anthropogenic warming to 1.5°C rather than 2°C, as aspired to by the Paris Climate Agreement, may have benefits for future drought risk but that such benefits may be regional and in some cases highly uncertain

Climate Feedbacks in CCSM3 under Changing CO2 Forcing. Part II: Variation of Climate Feedbacks and Sensitivity with Forcing

Are equilibrium climate sensitivity and the associated radiative feedbacks a constant property of the climate system, or do they change with forcing magnitude and base climate? Using the radiative kernel technique, feedbacks and climate sensitivity are evaluated in a fully coupled general circulation model (GCM) for three successive doublings of carbon dioxide starting from present-day concentrations. Climate sensitivity increases by 23% between the first and third CO₂ doublings. Increases in the positive water vapor and cloud feedbacks are partially balanced by a decrease in the positive surface albedo feedback and an increase in the negative lapse rate feedback. Feedbacks can be decomposed into a radiative flux change and a climate variable response to temperature change. The changes in water vapor and Planck feedbacks are due largely to changes in the radiative response with climate state. Higher concentrations of greenhouse gases and higher temperatures lead to more absorption and emission of longwave radiation. Changes in cloud feedbacks are dominated by the climate response to temperature change, while the lapse rate and albedo feedbacks combine elements of both. Simulations with a slab ocean model (SOM) version of the GCM are used to verify whether an SOM-GCM accurately reproduces the behavior of the fully coupled model. Although feedbacks differ in magnitude between model configurations (with differences as large as those between CO₂ doublings for some feedbacks), changes in feedbacks between CO₂ doublings are consistent in sign and magnitude in the SOM-GCM and the fully coupled model.Keywords: Cloud Feedback, Ocean Model, General circulation model, Radiative kernel techniqu

Climate Feedbacks in CCSM3 under Changing CO₂ Forcing. Part I: Adapting the Linear Radiative Kernel Technique to Feedback Calculations for a Broad Range of Forcings

Climate feedbacks vary strongly among climate models and continue to represent a major source of uncertainty in estimates of the response of climate to anthropogenic forcings. One method to evaluate feedbacks in global climate models is the radiative kernel technique, which is well suited for model intercomparison studies because of its computational efficiency. However, the usefulness of this technique is predicated on the assumption of linearity between top-of-atmosphere (TOA) radiative fluxes and feedback variables, limiting its application to simulations of small climate perturbations, where nonlinearities can be neglected. This paper presents an extension of the utility of this linear technique to large forcings, using global climate model simulations forced with CO₂ concentrations ranging from 2 to 8 times present-day values. Radiative kernels depend on the model’s radiative transfer algorithm and climate base state. For large warming, kernels based on the present-day climate significantly underestimate longwave TOA flux changes and somewhat overestimate shortwave TOA flux changes. These biases translate to inaccurate feedback estimates. It is shown that a combination of present-day kernels and kernels computed using a large forcing climate base state leads to significant improvement in the approximation of TOA flux changes and increased reliability of feedback estimates. While using present-day kernels results in a climate sensitivity that remains constant, using the new kernels shows that sensitivity increases significantly with each successive doubling of CO₂ concentrations.This is the publisher’s final pdf. The published article is copyrighted by the American Meteorological Society and can be found at: http://journals.ametsoc.org/loi/clim

An apicoplast-resident folate transporter is essential for sporogony of malaria parasites

Malaria parasites are fast replicating unicellular organisms and require substantial amounts of folate for DNA synthesis. Despite the central role of this critical co-factor for parasite survival, only little is known about intraparasitic folate trafficking in Plasmodium. Here, we report on the expression, subcellular localisation and function of the parasite's folate transporter 2 (FT2) during life cycle progression in the murine malaria parasite Plasmodium berghei. Using live fluorescence microscopy of genetically engineered parasites, we demonstrate that FT2 localises to the apicoplast. In invasive P. berghei stages, a fraction of FT2 is also observed at the apical end. Upon genetic disruption of FT2, blood and liver infection, gametocyte production and mosquito colonisation remain unaltered. But in the Anopheles vector, FT2 deficient parasites develop inflated oocysts with unusual pulp formation consisting of numerous single-membrane vesicles, which ultimately fuse to form large cavities. Ultrastructural analysis suggests that this defect reflects aberrant sporoblast formation caused by abnormal vesicular traffic. Complete sporogony in FT2-deficient oocysts is very rare, and mutant sporozoites fail to establish hepatocyte infection, resulting in a complete block of parasite transmission. Our findings reveal a previously unrecognised organellar folate transporter that exerts critical roles for pathogen maturation in the arthropod vector.Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft, Grant/ Award Numbers: 419345764, IRTG2290; Francis Crick Institute, Grant/Award Number: FC001043; Wellcome Trust, Grant/Award Number: 210918/Z/18/

Locomotor adaptability in persons with unilateral transtibial amputation

Background Locomotor adaptation enables walkers to modify strategies when faced with challenging walking conditions. While a variety of neurological injuries can impair locomotor adaptability, the effect of a lower extremity amputation on adaptability is poorly understood. Objective Determine if locomotor adaptability is impaired in persons with unilateral transtibial amputation (TTA). Methods The locomotor adaptability of 10 persons with a TTA and 8 persons without an amputation was tested while walking on a split-belt treadmill with the parallel belts running at the same (tied) or different (split) speeds. In the split condition, participants walked for 15 minutes with the respective belts moving at 0.5 m/s and 1.5 m/s. Temporal spatial symmetry measures were used to evaluate reactive accommodations to the perturbation, and the adaptive/de-adaptive response. Results Persons with TTA and the reference group of persons without amputation both demonstrated highly symmetric walking at baseline. During the split adaptation and tied post-adaptation walking both groups responded with the expected reactive accommodations. Likewise, adaptive and de-adaptive responses were observed. The magnitude and rate of change in the adaptive and de-adaptive responses were similar for persons with TTA and those without an amputation. Furthermore, adaptability was no different based on belt assignment for the prosthetic limb during split adaptation walking. Conclusions Reactive changes and locomotor adaptation in response to a challenging and novel walking condition were similar in persons with TTA to those without an amputation. Results suggest persons with TTA have the capacity to modify locomotor strategies to meet the demands of most walking conditions despite challenges imposed by an amputation and use of a prosthetic limb