Change in minimum and maximum temperatures (mean ± SD) between current (2013) and future (2055) climatic conditions on selected locations along the Kilimanjaro transect.

<p>The current temperatures were recorded using iButtons Hygrochron data loggers in the selected locations and future temperatures obtained from AFRICLIM 3.0 climatic projections of RCP 4.5 scenario.</p

Location of the study transect over an elevation gradient on the south-eastern slope of Mount Kilimanjaro, in Moshi district, Tanzania.

<p>The transect delimited in pink is approximately 11 km-long and 2 km-wide with a total surface area of around 22.2 km².</p

Change in risk indices for <i>A</i>. <i>thunbergii</i> populations of Kilimanjaro transect between current (2013) and future (2055) temperature conditions, plotted against elevations.

<p>(A) Establishment risk index (ERI), (B) generation index (GI), (C) activity index (AI). * = <i>P</i> < 0.05, ** = <i>P</i> < 0.001, *** = <i>P</i> < 0.0001.</p

Distribution of <i>Antestiopsis thunbergii</i> populations (mean density per tree) over the elevation transect on Kilimanjaro, for the different evaluation periods.

<p>(A) June 2014, cool dry season, (B) October 2014, short rainy season, (C) January 2015, warm dry season, (D) June 2015, cool dry season.</p

Distribution of establishment risk index (ERI), generation index (GI) and activity index (AI) of <i>A</i>. <i>thunbergii</i> on Kilimanjaro elevation transect calculated from the temperature dependent-development models under current (2013) and future (2055) temperature conditions.

<p>(A) ERI, (B) GI and (C) AI under current temperature; (D) ERI, (E) GI and (F) AI under future temperature projections; (G) ERI, (H) GI and (I) AI absolute difference between future and current temperature conditions.</p

S1 Data set -

Gryllus bimaculatus (Orthoptera: Gryllidae) is widely considered an excellent nutrient source for food and feed. Despite its economic importance, there is limited information on the impact of temperature on the bionomics of this cricket to guide its effective and sustainable mass production in its geographical range. The biological parameters of G. bimaculatus were investigated at eight different temperatures ranging from 20–40˚C. The Insect Life-Cycle Modelling (ILCYM) program was used to fit linear and non-linear functions to the data to describe the influence of temperature on life history parameters and its farmability under the current and projected climate for 2050. Our results revealed that G. bimaculatus was able to complete its lifecycle in the temperature range of 20°C to 37°C with a maximum finite rate of population increase (= 1.14) at 35°C. The developmental time of G. bimaculatus decreased with increasing temperature. The least developmental time and mortality were attained at 32°C. The highest wet length and mass of G. bimaculatus occurred at 32°C. The lowest temperature threshold for G. bimaculatus egg and nymph development was approximated using linear regression functions to be at 15.9°C and 16.2°C with a temperature constant of 108.7 and 555.6 degree days. The maximum fecundity (2301.98 eggs per female), net reproductive rate (988.42 daughters/ generation), and intrinsic rate of natural increase (0.134 days) were recorded at 32°C and the shortest doubling of 5.2 days was observed at 35°C. Based on our findings G. bimaculatus can be farmed in countries with temperatures ranging between 20 and 37°C around the globe. These findings will help the cricket farmers understand and project the cricket population dynamics around the world as influenced by temperature, and as such, will contribute to more efficient farming.</div

Fig 1 -

Relationship between temperature and developmental rate of Gryllus bimaculatus at the egg stage (A) and nymphal stage (B). The blue points are the observed values with bars representing the standard deviation. Fitted models are the dashed straight lines for linear models and solid lines for the Logan 1 model. Dashed lines in blue above and below represent the upper and lower 95% confidence interval.</p

Fig 6 -

Current (A) and projected (B) generation index mapping of Gryllus bimaculatus farmability according to ILCYM model prediction in the globe.</p

Fig 5 -

The Establishment Index (EI) for Gryllus bimaculatus modelled using CLIMEX in the A present time and CSIRO-Mk3.0 GCM running the SRES A2 scenario for 2050 B. The projections show a decrease in suitability around the equator and an increase in suitability in northern Europe and the Americas in 2050.</p

Fig 2 -

Relationship between temperature and the mortality rate of Gryllus bimaculatus egg (A) and nymph (B). Blue points are observed values. Solid red lines are fitted models, with a polynomial function of degree 4 for the egg, and a polynomial function of degree 12 for the nymph. Dashed lines in blue above and below represent the upper and lower 95% confidence interval.</p