Detecting Turning Points with Many Predictors through Hidden Markov Models

This paper explores the American business cycle with the Hidden Markov Model (HMM) as a monitoring tool using monthly data. It exhibits ten US time series which offer reliable information to detect recessions in real time. It also proposes and assesses the performances of different and complementary “recession models” based on Markovian processes, discusses the most efficient and easiest way of encompassing information through these models and draws three main conclusions: simple HMM are decisive to monitor the business cycle and some series are proved highly reliable; more sophisticated models such as the Dynamic Factor with Markov Switching (DFMS) model or Stock and Watson’s Experimental Recession Index seem not to be more powerful than simple (univariate or pseudo-multivariate) Hidden Markov Models, which remain far more parsimonious; combining information in temporal space seems to work marginally better than in probability space for high frequency data. We conclude about leading and “real time detection” properties related to HMM and give some hints for further research.Business Cycle, Markov Switching, Dynamic Factor, Coincident Indicators

The Price of Prejudice: Labour Market Discrimination on the Grounds of Gender and Ethnicity

Despite some progress, there is still evidence of discrimination on the grounds of gender and ethnic or racial origins in OECD labour markets. Field experiments show pervasive ethnic discrimination in many countries. We show indirect cross-country/time-series evidence that, using product market regulation as an instrument, suggests that on average at least 8% of the gender employment gap and a larger proportion of the gender wage gap can be attributed to discrimination. Virtually all OECD countries have enacted anti-discrimination laws in recent decades, and evaluations as well as cross-country analysis suggest that, if well-designed, these laws can be effective in reducing disparities in labour market outcomes. However, enforcement of anti-discrimination legislation is essentially based on victims' willingness to claim their rights. Thus, public awareness of legal rules and their expected consequences (notably, victims' costs and benefits of lodging complaints) is a crucial element of an effective policy strategy to establish a culture of equal treatment. However, legal rules are likely to have more impact if the enforcement is not exclusively dependent on individuals. In this respect, specific agencies may play a key role.field experiments; employment gaps; gender gaps; anti-discrimination laws

Beltanelliformis brunsae Menner in Keller et al., 1974: an undoubted Ediacaran fossil from Neoproterozoic of Dobrogea (Romania)

International audienceEdiacaran fossils are now largely known in different parts of the world. However, some countries are poorly documented on these remains of a still enigmatic life. Thus, rare fossils from the Neoproterozoic Histria Formation of central Dobrogea (Romania) have been reported. Two specimens with discoid imprints are described here in detail and assigned to the typical Ediacaran species Beltanelliformis brunsae Menner in Keller et al., 1974. This paleontological development confirms both the large geographical distribution of this species and the Ediacaran age of the Histria Formation. KEY WORDS Flat discoid imprints, Ediacaran biota, Precambrian, Dobrogea, Romania. RÉSUMÉLes fossiles édiacariens sont maintenant largement connus à travers le monde. Cepednant, certaines régions restent peu documentées sur ces restes, témoignages d’une vie qui apparaît encore aujourd’hui assez énigmatique. Ainsi, seuls de rares fossiles provenant de la Formation Histria du Néoprotérozoïque de Dobrogea centrale (Roumanie) avaient été signalés. Deux échantillons portant des impressions discoïdes sont ici décrits en détail et attribués à l’espèce typiquement édiacarienne Beltanelliformis brunsae Menner in Keller et al., 1974. Cette identification permet de confirmer la large répartition de cette espèce et l’âge édiacarien de la Formation Histria

« Ta mère est dans tes os » : Fae Myenne Ng et Amy Tan ou le passage des savoirs entre la Chine et l’Amérique

Deux romans de jeunes Chinoises-Américaines, Bone de Fae Myenne Ng et The joy Luck Club d'Amy Tan, illustrent à merveille une nouvelle tendance de la littérature américaine : l'émergence d'un nouveau corpus d'oeuvres rédigées en anglais par des immigrants de première ou de deuxième génération. Occupées à concilier un passé chinois qu'elles ne connaissent qu'à travers les récits de leurs parents et un présent américain dans lequel elles s'inscrivent en quelque sorte de biais, les protagonistes de ces romans ont à passer de la Chine à l'Amérique, du chinois à l'anglais, de l'oral à l'écrit. Il est également question de la manière dont le rapport à l'héritage chinois (et à la mère qui en est l'emblème) donne lieu à une construction identitaire complexe et mobile, le tout imprimant au roman sa forme particulière.Two novels by young Chinese-American women - Bone, by Fae Myenne Ng and The joy Luck Club, by Amy Tan -illustrate a new trend in American literature : writing in English by first and second-generation immigrants. Trying to make sense of a Chinese heritage known to them only at second hand and of an American present in which they are somewhat marginalized, they move from China to America, Chinese to English, oral to written forms. The article also considers how the relationship between the authors' Chinese heritage (and the mothers who exemplify that heritage) gives rise to a complex and ever-shifting identity, thus determining the form of the novel which records the process