Management of Disease-triggered Shocks in Complex Value Chains: An Ex Ante Analysis of Market Effects of HPAI Control in the Dutch Egg Supply Chain

External shocks, such as disease occurrence, can be very disruptive in complex food producing value chains. To analyze this, a vertically linked dynamic partial equilibrium model was used to analyze market effects of outbreaks of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI) in The Netherlands. Various shock inducing scenarios were analyzed, e.g control strategy, demand shocks and trade bans. The results showed that in densely populated poultry areas (1) market effects usually outweigh direct control costs, (2) vaccination could help mitigating total disease costs,particularly if (3) channeling to industrial processing is included. Moreover, large, and in some cases opposing differences in market effects between the various stakeholders could be observed. The result suggest a number ofimportant policy factors that should be considered in HPAI control, e.g. the poultry density, the production structure and differentiation of stakeholders, the dependency on international trade and the potential capacity ofindustrial processing of eggs. General implications for other food producing value chains are discussed

A Systematic Evaluation of Measures Against Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI) in Indonesia

Over the past years, many different control measures have been implemented to prevent HPAI infection. The national plan with numerous measures lead to problems in terms of prioritization and budget allocation. Our study objectives are to (i) establish an inventory of measures on HPAI control in Indonesia since the first actions were taken in 2004, (ii) evaluate preferences for different HPAI control measures applied in the West Java province at the district level during 2013–2017, and (iii) establish a basis for further qualitative and quantitative research to improve control for an endemic HPAI in Indonesia. This research was carried out according to the following five steps (i) development of an HPAI management framework for an endemic state, (ii) inventorization of measures directed at HPAI and description of the development of HPAI in Indonesia, (iii) development of a questionnaire for the experts involved, (iv) systematic evaluation of preferences for short- and long-term HPAI strategies and measures applied in the West Java Province based on expert opinion, and (v) data analysis. The study systematically evaluated in total 27 measures. The results of this study show that the animal disease management framework is helpful as a systematic structure to distinguish and evaluate strategies and measures. In our framework, we defined the following strategies: prevention, monitoring, control, mitigation, eradication, and human protection. The findings of our research show that the primary aims of the government were to safeguard humans from HPAI transmission by mitigating HPAI disease in livestock. The measures with the highest priority were preventive vaccination of poultry, biosecurity, and stamping-out infected flocks. This showed that the government predominantly chose a vaccination-based HPAI mitigation strategy. However, the chosen strategy has a low implementation feasibility. A collaboration between the responsible stakeholders farmers may increase the feasibility of the chosen strategy in the future. Furthermore, our findings provide a basis for research into the motivation of farmers to implement different measures as well as into the expected impact of different measures to develop an effective and efficient mitigation approach

Evaluation of foot and mouth disease control measures: Simulating two endemic areas of Thailand

Foot and mouth disease (FMD) is an important livestock disease in Thailand, with outbreaks occurring every year. However, the effects of FMD control measures in Thailand have received little research attention. Epidemiological models have been widely used to evaluate FMD outbreak control, but such a model has never been developed for Thailand. We constructed a stochastic between-farm transmission model to evaluate FMD control measures. The epidemiological unit of the model was the farm, which could be in different states: susceptible, latent, undetected infectious, detected infectious and recovered. The between-farm transmission was calculated by the sum of distance-dependent transmission and trade network transmission using parameters derived from FMD outbreaks in 2016–2017. We used this model to simulate the outbreaks with and without the implementation of the following control measures: culling all animals on infected farms, ring vaccination, animal movement restrictions and isolation of infected farms. The control measures were evaluated by estimating the number of secondarily infected farms and the outbreak duration for each scenario. The model was simulated in two study areas located in the Lamphaya Klang subdistrict (high farm density) and the Bo Phloi district (low farm density). The effects of control measures differed between the two study areas. When farm density was high, rigid control measures were required to prevent a major outbreak. Among all options, culling the animals on infected farms resulted in the lowest number of infected farms and the shortest outbreak duration. In contrast, for an area with a low farm density, less stringent control measures were sufficient to control the usually minor outbreaks. The results indicate that different areas require a different approach to control an outbreak of FMD

Financial Evaluation of Different Vaccination Strategies for Controlling the Bluetongue Virus Serotype 8 Epidemic in the Netherlands in 2008

Background: Bluetongue (BT) is a vector-borne disease of ruminants caused by bluetongue virus that is transmitted by biting midges (Culicoides spp.). In 2006, the introduction of BTV serotype 8 (BTV-8) caused a severe epidemic in Western and Central Europe. The principal effective veterinary measure in response to BT was believed to be vaccination accompanied by other measures such as movement restrictions and surveillance. As the number of vaccine doses available at the start of the vaccination campaign was rather uncertain, the Dutch Ministry of Agriculture, Nature and Food Quality and the Dutch agricultural industry wanted to evaluate several different vaccination strategies. This study aimed to rank eight vaccination strategies based on their efficiency (i.e. net costs in relation to prevented losses or benefits) for controlling the bluetongue virus serotype 8 epidemic in 2008 Methodology/Principal Findings: An economic model was developed that included the Dutch professional cattle, sheep and goat sectors together with the hobby farms. Strategies were evaluated based on the least cost - highest benefit frontier, the benefit-cost ratio and the total net returns. Strategy F, where all adult sheep at professional farms in the Netherlands would be vaccinated was very efficient at lowest costs, whereas strategy D, where additional to all adult sheep at professional farms also all adult cattle in the four Northern provinces would be vaccinated, was also very efficient but at a little higher costs. Strategy C, where all adult sheep and cattle at professional farms in the whole of the Netherlands would be vaccinated was also efficient but again at higher costs. Conclusions/Significance: This study demonstrates that a financial analysis differentiates between vaccination strategies and indicates important decision rules based on efficienc

Understanding the Motivation of Western Java Smallholder Broiler Farmers to Uptake Measures Against Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI)

Understanding broiler farmers' intention toward highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) control is important to design successful HPAI control programs. We used Theory of Planned Behavior (TPB) to identify factors (i.e., attitude, subjective norm, and perceived behavioral control) associated with the intentions of Western-Java small-scale broiler farmers toward implementing cleaning and disinfection (C&D), vaccination, reporting, and stamping-out without or with 50% compensation. For this, 203 Western-Java farmers were interviewed. The majority of the farmers had a positive intention to implement C&D (89%), reporting (88%), and vaccination (80%). A lower number had a positive intention to join stamping-out both with 50% compensation (67%) and without any compensation (53%). Farmers had a more positive attitude and subjective norm, but lower perceived behavioral control toward one or more of the intentions to implement measures. Attitude was positively associated with intentions to implement C&D and vaccination. Subjective norm of veterinarians of integrated companies was positively associated with intentions to implement vaccination. Perceived behavioral control (i.e., money and time) was positively associated with intentions to implement C&D, vaccination, and stamping-out without any compensation. Results suggest that farmers are in favor of implementing preventive measures (i.e., C&D and vaccination) on HPAI control over facing the consequences of control measures (i.e., stamping-out), and HPAI control programs should primarily focus on incentivizing farmers complemented by programs aiming to improve farmers' attitude. Thus, policy should be emphasized to preventive measures rather than control measures. Financial incentive-based instruments (e.g., price and performance bonus) can be used to increase the intention of farmers to implement C&D and vaccination. Trained vaccinators might help to save the time needed to vaccinate the entire flock can increase the intention of farmers to vaccinate their chickens. Also, informational instruments (e.g., education and communication) can be used to change and to improve the attitude of farmers to implement both measures.</p

A systematic evaluation of measures against highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) in Indonesia

Over the past years, many different control measures have been implemented to prevent HPAI infection. The national plan with numerous measures lead to problems in terms of prioritization and budget allocation. Our study objectives are to (i) establish an inventory of measures on HPAI control in Indonesia since the first actions were taken in 2004, (ii) evaluate preferences for different HPAI control measures applied in the West Java province at the district level during 2013-2017, and (iii) establish a basis for further qualitative and quantitative research to improve control for an endemic HPAI in Indonesia. This research was carried out according to the following five steps (i) development of an HPAI management framework for an endemic state, (ii) inventorization of measures directed at HPAI and description of the development of HPAI in Indonesia, (iii) development of a questionnaire for the experts involved, (iv) systematic evaluation of preferences for short- and long-term HPAI strategies and measures applied in the West Java Province based on expert opinion, and (v) data analysis. The study systematically evaluated in total 27 measures. The results of this study show that the animal disease management framework is helpful as a systematic structure to distinguish and evaluate strategies and measures. In our framework, we defined the following strategies: prevention, monitoring, control, mitigation, eradication, and human protection. The findings of our research show that the primary aims of the government were to safeguard humans from HPAI transmission by mitigating HPAI disease in livestock. The measures with the highest priority were preventive vaccination of poultry, biosecurity, and stamping-out infected flocks. This showed that the government predominantly chose a vaccination-based HPAI mitigation strategy. However, the chosen strategy has a low implementation feasibility. A collaboration between the responsible stakeholders farmers may increase the feasibility of the chosen strategy in the future. Furthermore, our findings provide a basis for research into the motivation of farmers to implement different measures as well as into the expected impact of different measures to develop an effective and efficient mitigation approach.</p

Smallholder Broiler Farmers' Characteristics to Uptake Measures Against Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza in Western Java

Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI) H5N1 remains endemic in the Western Java smallholder broiler farms. This study aims to identify farmers and farm characteristics associated with farmers' motivations toward five different measures directed to HPAI: cleaning and disinfection (C&D), vaccination, reporting, and stamping-out with and without compensation. Through multi-stage sampling and a questionnaire, we collected data from 199 farmers in Western Java and applied descriptive analysis and logistic regression to evaluate the data. Most smallholder broiler farms had a production contract with a poultry company. Unexpectedly, we identified subtypes of price-contract (i.e., revenues based on contract selling price and live bird weight) and makloon-contract (i.e., revenues based on management fee per bird) schemes. We identified these new subtypes as extended price-contract and extended makloon-contract schemes. These extended subtypes included issues related to animal health management and payment schemes. The results show that most of the farmers in both extended types were highly motivated to implement C&D and vaccination. Business types and farmers' awareness of HPAI were significantly associated with a farmer's motivation to implement C&D. Farmers who had an awareness of HPAI were more likely to implement C&D. Although our models were insufficient to model the association of farmers' motivation to uptake preventive measures against HPAI in Western Java, this study identified significant characteristics that help improve HPAI control policy in Western Java. Our study suggests that farm business types and incentives through payment schemes and training may increase the uptake of preventive measures by farmers

Comparison of Chinese broiler production systems in economic performance and animal welfare

Both proper animal welfare and economic benefit are important to the broiler industry, so it is better to consider these two factors together. The purpose of this study was to investigate the relationship between economic benefit and animal welfare in different production systems of white-feathered broilers in China. Based on the Welfare Quality Assessment (WQA) protocol for poultry, the authors compared and evaluated the results of the Welfare Quality model (WQM) and the deterministic model. The present study conducted welfare evaluations and investigations on 66 broiler chicken flocks on 52 farms in China. These flocks included three types: the net floor system (NFS), the normal cage system (NCS), and the high standard cage system (HCS). In terms of economy, the results were in line with high economic input, high output, and high profit. In terms of animal welfare assessment, the authors calculated the welfare scores per measure and the attributional WQ scores and WQ index scores of each production systems. The results showed that nine welfare measures from four welfare criteria presented different trends in the three production systems. WQ index scores were 778.24 ± 29.45, 691.09 ± 32.97, and 669.82 ± 22.79, respectively. According to Chow test results, significant differences were found between WQ index scores and total cost and profit (all p < 0.01). In conclusion, with the development of white-feathered broiler production in China, from the conventional system to the latest system, both cost and economic profit have been increased, but the welfare score has been decreased.</p

Exploring the performance of system changes in Dutch broiler production to balance animal welfare, ammonia emissions and particulate matter emissions with farm profitability

CONTEXT: In response to societal concerns, the European Union set up goals to address the negative impact of intensive broiler production on animal welfare, the environment and human health. OBJECTIVE: This paper aimed to 1) explore combinations of system changes that perform best in terms of farm income, animal welfare, emissions of ammonia (NH3) and particulate matter (PM10) and 2) are robust to changes in society's expectations relating to animal welfare and environmental sustainability. METHODS: The prevailing system in the Dutch broiler market was used as a baseline for evaluating system changes. Animal welfare, NH3 emissions and PM10 emissions were the three external factors chosen for this evaluation. Farm income was quantified by the net return to labor and management (NRLM). Expert knowledge elicitation was used to identify system changes that were likely to be implemented in the baseline system. Combinations were made by selecting system changes from each of the chosen external factors. A deterministic model was used to calculate the effect of each combination of system changes on net return to labor and management. The performance of each combination was evaluated by estimating a benefit-of-the-doubt composite indicator. RESULTS AND CONCLUSIONS: Results show that 8 out of 70 combinations indicated a better outcome and were more robust to potential changes in society's expectations relating to animal welfare and environmental sustainability. These combinations included two or more of the following system changes: ‘lower density’ (30 kg/m2), ‘2 types of enrichment’, and ‘daylight’. Furthermore, these combinations included ‘tube heaters’ for the abatement of NH3 emissions, and ‘negative air ionization system’ or ‘ionization filter’ for the abatement of PM10 emissions. To compensate for the decrease in NRLM associated with these practices and abatement techniques, a price premium was required that ranged between 4.8 and 18.5 eurocents/broiler. We conclude that combinations including animal welfare related system changes (lower density, enrichment and/or daylight), tube heaters and an ionization technique performed best and were robust to changes of societal expectations of these external factors. SIGNIFICANCE: The insights obtained from this paper can support decision making in improving the sustainability of current broiler production systems

Analysis of synergies and trade-offs between animal welfare, ammonia emission, particulate matter emission and antibiotic use in Dutch broiler production systems

Context: Intensive broiler production systems are criticized by EU citizens because of their negative impact on animal welfare, the environment and human health. Objective: To inform the development of sustainable broiler production systems, this paper provides insight in the synergies and trade-offs between different external factors originating from broiler production systems by developing a new analysis approach. Methods: The approach was applied to the Dutch conventional, New Dutch Retail Standard and Extensive Indoor+ systems. The latter two systems have more stringent standards on animal welfare relative to the conventional system. Four external factors were considered, i.e. animal welfare (indicated by Welfare Quality Index score), ammonia emission (kg NH3/animal place/year), particulate matter emission (g PM10/animal place/year) and antibiotic use (defined daily doses animal). Results and conclusions: Results show that the shift from a fast-growing breed towards a slower-growing breed caused synergy by improving animal welfare and lowering antibiotic use. Furthermore, the reduction in protein content of the feed, and possibly the reduction in stocking density, caused synergy by enhancing animal welfare and lowering ammonia emission. System changes that stimulated activity, such as the reduction in stocking density, enhanced animal welfare but caused a trade-off with particulate matter emission. Although the New Dutch Retail Standard and Extensive Indoor+ system were characterized by a higher ammonia and particulate matter emission per animal place per year relative to the conventional system, experts estimated that these emissions were partially (New Dutch Retail Standard) or fully (Extensive Indoor+) offset at farm level via a lower stocking density. Overall, we conclude that future development of broiler production systems can exploit the synergy between animal welfare, antibiotic use, and ammonia emission and minimize the trade-off between animal welfare and particulate matter emission. Significance: The insights obtained from this paper can support the development of sustainable broiler production systems that minimize external factors originating from these systems.</p