Population growth in a wild bird is buffered against phenological mismatch

road-scale environmental changes are altering patterns of natural selection in the wild, but few empirical studies have quantified the demographic cost of sustained directional selection in response to these changes. We tested whether population growth in a wild bird is negatively affected by climate change–induced phenological mismatch, using almost four decades of individual-level life-history data from a great tit population. In this population, warmer springs have generated a mismatch between the annual breeding time and the seasonal food peak, intensifying directional selection for earlier laying dates. Interannual variation in population mismatch has not, however, affected population growth. We demonstrated a mechanism contributing to this uncoupling, whereby fitness losses associated with mismatch are counteracted by fitness gains due to relaxed competition. These findings imply that natural populations may be able to tolerate considerable maladaptation driven by shifting climatic conditions without undergoing immediate declines

Reproductive allocation in pulsed-resource environments: a comparative study in two populations of wild boar

International audienc

The contributions of age and sex to variation in common tern population growth rate

The decomposition of population growth rate into contributions from different demographic rates has many applications, ranging from evolutionary biology to conservation and management. Demographic rates with low variance may be pivotal for population persistence, but variable rates can have a dramatic influence on population growth rate.In this study, the mean and variance in population growth rate (?) is decomposed into contributions from different ages and demographic rates using prospective and retrospective matrix analyses for male and female components of an increasing common tern (Sterna hirundo) population.Three main results emerged: (1) subadult return was highly influential in prospective and retrospective analyses; (2) different age-classes made different contributions to variation in ?: older age classes consistently produced offspring whereas young adults performed well only in high quality years; and (3) demographic rate covariation explained a significant proportion of variation in both sexes. A large contribution to ? did not imply a large contribution to its variation.This decomposition strengthens the argument that the relationship between variation in demographic rates and variation in ? is complex. Understanding this relationship and its consequences for population persistence and evolutionary change demands closer examination of the lives, and deaths, of the individuals within populations within species

Age-dependent genetic variance in a life-history trait in the mute swan

Genetic variance in characters under natural selection in natural populations determines the way those populations respond to that selection. Whether populations show temporal and/or spatial constancy in patterns of genetic variance and covariance is regularly considered, as this will determine whether selection responses are constant over space and time. Much less often considered is whether characters show differing amounts of genetic variance over the life-history of individuals. Such age-specific variation, if present, has important potential consequences for the force of natural selection and for understanding the causes of variation in quantitative characters. Using data from a long-term study of the mute swan Cygnus olor, we report the partitioning of phenotypic variance in timing of breeding (subject to strong natural selection) into component parts over 12 different age classes. We show that the additive genetic variance and heritability of this trait are strongly age-dependent, with higher additive genetic variance present in young and, particularly, old birds, but little evidence of any genetic variance for birds of intermediate ages. These results demonstrate that age can have a very important influence on the components of variation of characters in natural populations, and consequently that separate age classes cannot be assumed to be equivalent, either with respect to their evolutionary potential or response

On the stability of populations of mammals, birds, fish and insects

A key concern for conservation biologists is whether populations of plants and animals are likely to fluctuate widely in number or remain relatively stable around some steady-state value. In our study of 634 populations of mammals, birds, fish and insects, we find that most can be expected to remain stable despite year to year fluctuations caused by environmental factors. Mean return rates were generally around one but were higher in insects (1.09 +/- 0.02 SE) and declined with body size in mammals. In general, this is good news for conservation, as stable populations are less likely to go extinct. However, the lower return rates of the large mammals may make them more vulnerable to extinction. Our estimates of return rates were generally well below the threshold for chaos, which makes it unlikely that chaotic dynamics occur in natural populations - one of ecology's key unanswered questions