Movement Restrictions, Agricultural Trade and Price Transmission between Israel and the West Bank

Imposing military security measures as a consequence of violent conflict may lead to depressing economic effects for all parties involved. One implication is the limited ability to conduct trade, which in turn brings about welfare losses to the economic agents involved and may threat livelihoods and food security. This paper focuses on the consequences of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, as a prominent example, on bilateral agricultural trade and price dynamics. For this purpose, we consider high-frequency wholesale price data and data on movement restrictions (complete closures) which were imposed by the Israeli Defense Forces in the West Bank between May 2007 and December 2008. In particular, we study the price dynamics of cucumbers and apples, two crops which play an important role for bilateral trade. The spatial and temporal price relationships are assessed using a cointegration framework. Specifically, we use a novel multivariate exogenous regime-switching vector error correction model and employ a recently developed extension of Johansen’s cointegration estimation method. We find the wholesale markets of cucumbers and apples in Hebron and Tel Aviv to be integrated. For both products, the price differentials between both markets quickly adjust to short run deviations from the long-run price equilibria. The regime-dependent model suggests that the movement restrictions effectively cut off both markets from each other temporarily.Agricultural trade, cointegration, Israel, regime-dependent error correction, price transmission, Palestinian territories., International Relations/Trade, Marketing, Political Economy,

ASSESSING THE RESPONSE OF FARM HOUSEHOLDS TO DAIRY POLICY REFORM IN ISRAEL

After nearly fifty years of stability and stagnation of dairy market regulations in Israel, a dramatic policy reform has been enacted in 1999. The reform enabled farm households, for the first time, to trade production quotas. In addition, the reform signaled to farmers that milk prices will gradually go down in real terms, and therefore only producers who expand and become more efficient will prevail. The reform allowed for generous financial support for investment in expansion, but also required the adoption of environmental regulations which could be costly to many farm families. This paper uses data from a census of small family-operated dairy enterprises that was conducted in 2001, in order to analyze the response of farm households to the reform. The results imply that the reform was particularly attractive for already strong producers. Weaker producers are less attracted by the reform and will likely fade away by default in the long run. Another finding is that intergenerational succession is an important element of decision making of milk producers. Hence, the response of farm households to changes in the economic environment cannot be disentangled from the occupational decisions of their offspring. These findings imply that the desired structural change in the family-farm milk production sector will take much longer than expected, essentially as long as the current generation of producers is around. This requires, perhaps, an extension of the reform period or a change in incentives in favor of the smaller and older producers.milk policy reform, technology adoption, intergenerational succession, Agricultural and Food Policy, Livestock Production/Industries,

Greenhouse Gas Impacts of Ethanol from Iowa Corn: Life Cycle Analysis versus System-wide Accounting

Life cycle analysis (LCA) is the standard approach used to evaluate the greenhouse gas (GHG) benefits of biofuels. However, it is increasingly recognized that LCA results do not account for some impacts including land use changes that have important implications on GHGs. Thus, an alternative accounting system that goes beyond LCA is needed. In this paper, we contribute to the literature by laying out the basics of a system-wide accounting (SWA) method that takes into account all potential changes in GHGs resulting from biofuel expansion. We applied both LCA and SWA to assess the GHG impacts of ethanol based on Iowa corn. Growing corn in rotation with soybeans generated 35% less GHG emissions than growing corn after corn. Based on average corn production, ethanol's GHG benefits were lower in 2007 than in 2006 because of an increase in continuous corn in 2007. When only additional corn was considered, ethanol emitted about 22% less GHGs than gasoline. Results from SWA varied with the choice of baseline and the definition of geographical boundaries. Using 2006 as a baseline and 2007 as a scenario, corn ethanol's benefits were about 20% of the emissions of gasoline. If we expand geographical limits beyond Iowa, but assume the same emission rates for soybean production and land use changes as those in Iowa, then corn ethanol generated more GHG emissions than gasoline. These results highlight the importance of boundary definition for both LCA and SWAbiofuels, corn ethanol, greenhouse gas, life cycle analysis, system-wide accounting, Research Methods/ Statistical Methods, Resource /Energy Economics and Policy,

Assessing the response of farm households to dairy policy reform in Israel

After nearly fifty years of stability and stagnation of dairy market regulations in Israel, a dramatic policy reform has been enacted in 1999. The reform enabled farm households, for the first time, to trade production quotas. In addition, the reform signaled to farmers that milk prices will gradually go down in real terms, and therefore only producers who expand and become more efficient will prevail. The reform allowed for generous financial support for investment in expansion, but also required the adoption of environmental regulations which could be costly to many farm families. This paper uses data from a census of small family-operated dairy enterprises that was conducted in 2001, in order to analyze the response of farm households to the reform. The results imply that the reform was particularly attractive for already strong producers. Weaker producers are less attracted by the reform and will likely fade away by default in the long run. Another finding is that intergenerational succession is an important element of decision making of milk producers. Hence, the response of farm households to changes in the economic environment cannot be disentangled from the occupational decisions of their offspring. These findings imply that the desired structural change in the family-farm milk production sector will take much longer than expected, essentially as long as the current generation of producers is around. This requires, perhaps, an extension of the reform period or a change in incentives in favor of the smaller and older producers

Greenhouse gas impacts of ethanol from Iowa corn: Life cycle assessment versus system wide approach

Life cycle assessment (LCA) is the standard approach used to evaluate the greenhouse gas (GHG) benefits of biofuels. However, the need for the appropriate use of LCA in policy contexts is highlighted by recent findings that corn-based ethanol may actually increase GHG emissions. This is in contrary to most existing LCA results. LCA estimates can vary across studies due to heterogeneities in inputs and production technology. Whether marginal or average impacts are considered can matter as well. Most important of all, LCA is product-centered. The determination of the impact of biofuels expansion requires a system wide approach (SWA) that accounts for impacts on all affected products and processes. This paper presents both LCA and SWA for ethanol based on Iowa corn. LCA was conducted in several different ways. Growing corn in rotation with soybean generates 35% less GHG emissions than growing corn after corn. Based on average corn production, ethanol\u27s GHG benefits were lower in 2007 than in 2006 because of an increase in continuous corn in 2007. When only additional corn was considered, ethanol emitted about 22% less GHGs than gasoline. SWA was applied to two simple cases. Using 2006 as a baseline and 2007 as a scenario, corn ethanol\u27s benefits were about 20% of the emissions of gasoline. If geographical limits are expanded beyond Iowa, then corn ethanol could generate more GHG emissions than gasoline. These results highlight the importance of boundary definition for both LCA and SWA

Implied Objectives of U.S. Biofuel Subsidies

Biofuel subsidies in the United States have been justified on the following grounds: energy independence, a reduction in greenhouse gas emissions, improvements in rural development related to biofuel plants, and farm income support. The 2007 energy act emphasizes the first two objectives. In this study, we quantify the costs and benefits that different biofuels provide. We consider the first two objectives separately and show that each can be achieved with a lower social cost than that of the current policy. Then, we show that there is no evidence to disprove that the primary objective of biofuel policy is to support farm income. Current policy favors corn production and the construction of corn-based ethanol plants. We find that favoring corn happens to be the best way to remove land from food and feed production, thus providing higher commodity prices and income to farmers and landowners. Next, we calculate two sets of alternative biofuel subsidies that are targeted to meeting income transfer objectives and either greenhouse gas emission reductions or fuel energy reductions. The first of these assumes that greenhouse gas emissions and high crop prices are joint objectives, and the second assumes that fuel independence and high crop prices are the joint objectives. Finally, we infer the social willingness to pay for biofuel services. This, in turn, allows us to propose a subsidy schedule that maintains (inferred) social preferences and provides a higher incentive for farmers to choose production of cellulosic materials. This is particularly relevant since the 2007 energy act sets a renewable fuels standard that relies heavily on cellulosic biofuel but does not specify a higher per gallon incentive to producers

Measuring Temporal Dimensions of the Intensity of Violent Political Conflict

Violent political conflict shows patterns of varied intensity and persistence. These patterns may induce changes in human behavior in various temporal dimensions. In order to study these effects, empirical research needs a suitable way to measure conflict intensity. This paper suggests and illustrates a method of aggregating raw data on violence incidence into complementary temporal categories, in order to enrich empirical insights. We construct short-, medium-, and long-term measures based on daily fatality counts in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict between 1997 and 2011. We show that these dimensions, although constructed from the same set of raw data, contain complementary information since they are only weakly correlated. As an example, we illustrate how several such categories can be useful in modeling the dynamics of food prices. This demonstrates that such aggregations provide complementary temporal perspectives. They therefore can potentially enrich the analysis of the effects of conflict on human behavior beyond commonly employed measurements of daily or yearly frequency

Movement Restrictions, Agricultural Trade and Price Transmission between Israel and the West Bank

Imposing military security measures as a consequence of violent conflict may lead to depressing economic effects for all parties involved. One implication is the limited ability to conduct trade, which in turn brings about welfare losses to the economic agents involved and may threat livelihoods and food security. This paper focuses on the consequences of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, as a prominent example, on bilateral agricultural trade and price dynamics. For this purpose, we consider high-frequency wholesale price data and data on movement restrictions (complete closures) which were imposed by the Israeli Defense Forces in the West Bank between May 2007 and December 2008. In particular, we study the price dynamics of cucumbers and apples, two crops which play an important role for bilateral trade. The spatial and temporal price relationships are assessed using a cointegration framework. Specifically, we use a novel multivariate exogenous regime-switching vector error correction model and employ a recently developed extension of Johansen’s cointegration estimation method. We find the wholesale markets of cucumbers and apples in Hebron and Tel Aviv to be integrated. For both products, the price differentials between both markets quickly adjust to short run deviations from the long-run price equilibria. The regime-dependent model suggests that the movement restrictions effectively cut off both markets from each other temporarily

Price Transmission Subject to Security‐based Trade Barriers in the Context of the Israeli‐Palestinian Conflict

Israel’s imposition of military security measures in the Palestinian territories as a consequence of the long-lasting violent conflict yields depressing economic effects to all parties involved. One crucial implication is the limited ability to carry out trade which brings about welfare losses. This paper assesses the consequences of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict on price dynamics of agricultural trade between Israel and the West Bank by analyzing daily wholesale prices subject to movement restrictions. An exogenous regime switching cointegration model is estimated using a novel extension of the Johansen estimation method. We find Hebron and Tel Aviv wholesale markets to be integrated for the main trading products. Deviations from price equilibrium are quickly adjusted for. The model suggests that the movement restrictions temporarily cut off both markets from each other. Welfare implications of the closures depend on the direction of trade, harming both Palestinian and Israeli consumers