Kapitalizam, razvijeni i tranzicijski, kakav se razotkrio tijekom financijske krize

During the crisis, it became evident that the kind of capitalism that was becoming dominant in the developed world over the last twenty or thirty years, so-called it financial capitalism, was the cause of crisis or at least it cannot completely exculpate itself. The growth in debts, credits, finance in general, changing behaviour of financial institutions and bankers, traders, financiers, their very short-term horizon, their huge bonuses, high bank profits, for capitalism unaccepted morals are some of the things, which have come to the surface. How did the financial crisis start and spread out to the whole world; how were the transitional economies of former Yugoslavia affected; what was the theoretical or ideological foundation for the capitalism we had; what is the morality of capitalism or a market economy – these are the questions touched upon in the first chapters. At the end, and as a conclusion of the paper, there are thoughts and/or ideas about the changes in capitalism to be expected. Financial reforms are crucial for the developed world and they may trigger more profound changes. For transitional economies such reforms are neither essential nor sufficient. The financial crisis has just exposed their problems as more serious and more difficult to overcome than previously thought. Their problems are largely the problems of the real sectors of their economies.Tijekom krize, postalo je očigledno da je vrsta kapitalizma kojeg neki zovu financijski kapitalizam, a koji je postao dominantan u razvijenom svijetu tijekom posljednjih dvadeset ili trideset godina, prouzročio je tu krizu, odnosno ne može je u potpunosti prevladati ili, u najboljem slučaju, ne može je se u potpunosti osloboditi. Rast dugova, kredita, financiranja općenito, mijenjanje ponašanja financijskih institucija i bankara, trgovaca, financijera, njihovog vrlo kratkoročno usmjerenog horizonta, sa svojim ogromnim bonusima, velikom dobiti banaka, za kapitalizam neprihvaćeni moral su samo neke od stvari, koje izlaze na površinu. Kako je financijska kriza započela i proširila se na cijeli svijet; kako je to utjecalo na tranzicijska gospodarstva bivše Jugoslavije, što je teorijski ili ideološki temelj kapitalizma koji smo imali, što je moralnost kapitalizma ili tržišne ekonomije – pitanja su koja su dotaknuta u prvom dijelu ovoga rada. Na kraju, kao i u zaključku rada, tu su misli i / ili ideje o promjenama u kapitalizmu koje se mogu očekivati. Financijske reforme su ključne za razvijeni svijet i one mogu pokrenuti dublje promjene. Međutim, takve financijske reforme tranzicijskim gospodarstvima nisu ni bitne ni dovoljne, jer je upravo financijskom krizom dodatno istaknuta ozbiljnost problema s kojima su suočeni i poteškoćama u njihovu prevladavanju, daleko većim i ozbiljnijim od onoga što se prethodno mislilo. Njihovi problemi su uglavnom problemi realnog sektora njihovih gospodarstava

Keynes’ monetary theory and transition economies

After a short outline of how Keynes’ monetary theory was being accepted, read and discussed before the transition period started at early 1990s, two key issues somehow connected with Keynes are being analyzed in this paper. The first issue focuses on the problems of selling of business enterprises, i.e.their shares, in transition countries, as they had to be transformed from stately or socially owned to privately owned companies. These problems are remotely similar to problems resolved or ‘resolved’ by the Say’s Law. If the government does not enable private sector to buy companies, domestic savings and capital formation will decrease. For instance, what the government should have done in cases where businessenterprises were socially owned is being analyzed and illustrated with IS-LM diagrams for the open economy. The second issue deals with how the central bank should behave – especially if the government had not done anything to enable smooth purchases of business enterprises by the domestic private sectors. The central bank should prevent either monetary expansion or appreciation of thedomestic currency by sterilized purchases of the surpluses of foreign currencies on the foreign exchange market. Both issues are somehow connected with Keynes and/or economists whether either his followers or not

Razvojni prospekti bankarstva u novim i budućim zemljama članicama EU

Bank consolidation has substantially decreased the number of banks in European banking, which has had important implications for the banking sectors structure in all EU member countries. The consolidation processes have had a tremendous impact on the developments in banking sectors of new EU member countries, where major structural changes have been initiated mostly by new entrant banks from the old EU member countries. The future banking development in new EU member countries will very likely follow some main patterns known from the old EU members. Rather speculative conjectures, which are based on a comparison with banking sectors in other EU member countries indicate, that the total-asset-to-GDP ratio in new member countries should further improve in the future. The banking sector growth will be based mostly on the growth of the credit to non-banking sector, while banks are not expected anymore to use non-bank deposits as a predominant way of funding. Instead potentials for alternative funding possibilities should be activated. Although the non-bank financial intermediaries in new EU members represent a serious competition to banks, their relative underdevelopment prevents them from impacting the developments in banking sectors as known from old EU member countries.Konsolidacija banaka znatno je smanjila broj banaka u europskom bankarstvu, što ima značajne implikacije na bankarski sektor u svim zemljama članicama EU. Konsolidacija banaka imala je veliki utjecaj na razvoj bankarskog sektora svih novih zemalja članica, gdje su najveće strukturalne promjene inicirane stvaranjem novih banaka uz sudioništvo starih članica EU. Budući bankarski razvoj u novim zemljama članicama EU vjerojatno će se temeljiti na onom starih članica. Više spekulativna nagađanja, koja se temelje na usporedbi s bankarskim sektorima u drugim zemljama članicama, pokazuju da će se odnos kapitala prema BDP u novim zemljama članicama povećavati u budućnosti. Rast bankarskog sektora temeljit će se većim dijelom na rastu zajmova nebankarskim sektorima, a od banaka se očekuje da više ne rabe nebankarske depozite kao glavni oblik financiranja. Umjesto toga, trebaju se aktivirati mogućnosti za alternativnim financiranjem. Nebankarski financijski posrednici u novim zemljama članicama EU bankama predstavljaju ozbiljnu konkurenciju, međutim, njihova relativna nerazvijenost sprečava ih da utječu na razvoj u bankarskom sektoru kao što je to bio slučaj u starim zemljama članicama EU

Tranzicija, pretvorbe i monetarna uređenja u novonastalim državama na području nekadašnje Jugoslavije

The aim of our research was to compare the methods of privatization of social ownership and monetary system in the countries of former Yugoslavia with the privatization mode and monetary arrangement that could be considered as optimal. By applying the method of comparative analysis, it has been found out that the way of socially-owned enterprises being privatized and monetary regulations implemented had the crucial impact on the transition in the countries of former Yugoslavia. In fact, the chosen methods of privatization and monetary arrangements applied in these countries have established economies of uncompetitive enterprises. Privatization was either macro-economically harmful for the domestic savings and capital formation and / or unjust for people. In addition, our analyses have proved that the monetary regulation and foreign exchange policy were either not implemented at all or too little to neutralize the negative consequences of selling companies to foreign investors on the foreign exchange rate. The same goes for the combination of monetary policy and foreign exchange rate policy that should have been implemented so as to prevent speculative import and export of short-term capital. For the countries that have not joined the EU yet, it might be helpful to comply with the conclusions of our research and examine their path toward a market economy.Cilj našeg istraživanja je usporediti način pretvorbe društvenog vlasništva i monetarno uređenje u zemljama nekadašnje Jugoslavije s načinom pretvorbe i monetarnim uređenjem koji bi bili optimalni. Metodom komparativne analize utvrđeno je da su način ukidanja društvenoga vlasništva poduzeća i monetarno uređenje odlučujuće određivali tranziciju u tim zemljama. Rezultati istraživanja pokazali su da zbog načina privatizacije i monetarnih uređenja, koja su se de facto primjenjivala, nastala su gospodarstava s nekonkurentnim poduzećima. Pretvorba je bila makroekonomski za domaću štednju i formiranje kapitala, štetna i/ili za ljude nepravedna. Također, ustanovljeno je da se monetarno uređenje i politika deviznog tečaja uopće nisu koristili, ili su se koristili premalo za neutralizaciju negativnih posljedica prodaje poduzeća strancima. Slično vrijedi i za kombinaciju između monetarne politike i politike deviznog tečaja, da bi se sprječavao špekulativni uvoz i izvoz kratkoročnog kapitala. Za države, koje još nisu ušle u EU, vjerojatno bi bilo korisno da u skladu sa zaključcima naše rasprave preispitaju dosadašnji put prema tržišnoj ekonomiji

Analysis of characteristic values of measured discharge data

In hydrology data could be analyzed using hydrological and statistical methods to determine characteristic values, relations between those values and properties of data series or gauging stations. \ud In the theoretical part of the thesis characteristic values of measured river flows were presented. Basic statistical analysis of the sample, flow duration curve, flood frequency analysis, analysis of time series, regression line and double mass curve were described.\ud In the second part of this thesis these methods were applied on the data of the gauging station Moste on river Ljubljanica for the period 1924 to 2011 and for the gauging station Dvor on river Gradaščica for the period 1979 to 2011. Analyses showed that maximal values of discharges at both stations were part of same event. This flood event took place on September 2010. Furthermore flood frequency\ud analysis was made to determine the return period of high flows. The results of different distributions were compared. Time series analyses were made with monthly and yearly data and compared with each other. At the end also regression analysis was done which showed strong connection between flows from both gauging stations with the correlation coefficient of 0.75