Assessment of the Potential Impact and Cost-effectiveness of Self-Testing for HIV in Low-Income Countries.

Studies have demonstrated that self-testing for human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) is highly acceptable among individuals and could allow cost savings, compared with provider-delivered HIV testing and counseling (PHTC), although the longer-term population-level effects are uncertain. We evaluated the cost-effectiveness of introducing self-testing in 2015 over a 20-year time frame in a country such as Zimbabwe

Opportunities for improving the efficiency of paediatric HIV treatment programmes

Objectives: To conduct two economic analyses addressing whether to: routinely monitor HIV-infected children on antiretroviral therapy (ART) clinically or with laboratory tests; continue or stop cotrimoxazole prophylaxis when children become stabilized on ART. Design and methods: The ARROW randomized trial investigated alternative strategies to deliver paediatric ART and cotrimoxazole prophylaxis in 1206 Ugandan/Zimbabwean children. Incremental cost-effectiveness and value of implementation analyses were undertaken. Scenario analyses investigated whether laboratory monitoring (CD4 tests for efficacy monitoring; haematology/biochemistry for toxicity) could be tailored and targeted to be delivered cost-effectively. Cotrimoxazole use was examined in malaria-endemic and non-endemic settings. Results: Using all trial data, clinical monitoring delivered similar health outcomes to routine laboratory monitoring, but at a reduced cost, so was cost-effective. Continuing cotrimoxazole improved health outcomes at reduced costs. Restricting routine CD4+ monitoring to after 52 weeks following ART initiation and removing toxicity testing was associated with an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of $6084 per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) across all age groups, but was much lower for older children (12+ years at initiation; incremental cost-effectiveness ratio =$769/QALY). Committing resources to improve cotrimoxazole implementation appears cost-effective. A healthcare system that could pay $600/QALY should be willing to spend up to$12.0 per patient-year to ensure continued provision of cotrimoxazole. Conclusion: Clinically driven monitoring of ART is cost-effective in most circumstances. Routine laboratory monitoring is generally not cost-effective at current prices, except possibly CD4 testing amongst adolescents initiating ART. Committing resources to ensure continued provision of cotrimoxazole in health facilities is more likely to represent an efficient use of resources

Factors associated with healthcare seeking behaviour for children in Malawi: 2016

Objective: To characterise health seeking behaviour (HSB) and determine its predictors amongst children in Malawi in 2016. Methods: We used the 2016 Malawi Integrated Household Survey data set. The outcome of interest was HSB, defined as seeking care at a health facility amongst people who reported one or more of a list of possible symptoms given on the questionnaire in the past two weeks. We fitted a multivariate logistic regression model of HSB using a forward step-wise selection method, with age, sex and symptoms entered as a priori variables. Results: Of 5350 children, 1666 (32%) had symptoms in the past two weeks. Of the 1666, 1008 (61%) sought care at health facility. The children aged 5–14 years were less likely to be taken to health facilities for health care than those aged 0–4 years. Having fever vs. not having fever and having a skin problem vs. not having skin problem were associated with increased likelihood of HSB. Having a headache vs. not having a headache was associated with lower likelihood of accessing care at health facilities (AOR = 0.50, 95% CI: 0.26–0.96, P = 0.04). Children from urban areas were more likely to be taken to health facilities for health care (AOR = 1.81, 95% CI: 1.17–2.85, P = 0.008), as were children from households with a high wealth status (AOR = 1.86, 95% CI: 1.25–2.78, P = 0.02). Conclusion: There is a need to understand and address individual, socio-economic and geographical barriers to health seeking to increase access and use of health care and fast-track progress towards Universal Health Coverage

The impact and cost-effectiveness of combined HIV prevention scenarios among transgender women sex-workers in Lima, Peru: A mathematical modelling study

Background HIV incidence remains high among transgender women in Lima, Peru, most of whom report sex work. On the basis of a stakeholder analysis and health system capacity assessment, we designed a mathematical model to guide HIV programmatic planning among transgender women sex workers (TWSW) in Lima. Methods Using a deterministic compartmental model, we modelled HIV transmission among TWSW, their stable partners, and their clients to estimate the impact and cost-effectiveness of combinations of interventions compared with the standard of care on reducing HIV incidence over a 10-year period. We simulated HIV transmission accounting for differences in sexual positioning in anal intercourse and condom use by partner type and fitted the model to HIV surveillance data using Latin hypercube sampling. The interventions we considered were 15% relative increase in condom use with clients and 10% relative increase with stable partners; increase in antiretroviral treatment (ART) coverage at CD4 count lower than 500 cells per mm3 and greater than or equal to 500 cells per mm3; and 15% pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) coverage using generic and branded formulations. We considered a basic scenario accounting for current limitations in the Peruvian HIV services and an enhanced scenario assuming achievement of the UNAIDS 90-90-90 targets and general improvements in HIV services. The 50 best fits according to log-likelihood were used to give the minimum and maximum values of intervention effect for each combination. We used disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) to measure the negative health outcomes associated with HIV infection that could be averted through the interventions investigated and calculated incremental cost-effectiveness ratios to compare their cost-effectiveness. Findings Under the basic scenario, combining the four interventions of increasing condom use with clients and stable partners, extending ART to people with CD4 count greater than or equal to 500 cells per mm3, and 15% PrEP coverage with generic drugs would avert 47% (range 27–51) of new infections in TWSW, their clients, and their stable partners over 10 years, with an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of US$509 per DALY averted. Under the enhanced scenario, this strategy would avert 61$1003 per DALY averted. Under both scenarios, implementation of this strategy approaches or surpasses the 50% incidence reduction goal and would represent a cost-effective use of country resources if generic PrEP drugs are used. The total cost of implementing this strategy under the enhanced scenario would be approximately $1·2 million per year over 10 years, corresponding to 10% of the current Global Fund's yearly contribution in Peru. Interpretation Investments in HIV services among TWSW in Lima would be cost-effective, even under stringent cost-effectiveness criteria when accounting for setting-specific resource constraints. Notable improvements in HIV testing rates, innovative interventions to increase condom use, and reduced PrEP costs will be key to achieving the 50% incidence reduction goal. Modelling studies incorporating stakeholders' perspectives and health system assessments can bring added value to HIV policy making

Analyses of the return on investment of public health interventions: a scoping review and recommendations for future studies

Return on investment (ROI) analysis is increasingly being used for evaluating the value for money of public health interventions. Given its potential role for informing health policies, it is important that there is a more comprehensive understanding of ROI analysis within the global health field. To address this gap in the literature, we conducted a scoping review of recent research articles reporting an ROI metric for a health intervention within the public sector in any country setting. The database search was limited to literature published in English and studies published between 1 January 2018 and 14 June 2021. Uses and settings where the ROI metric is being applied, key methodological features of the calculations and the types of economic benefits included were extracted. 118 relevant studies were included within this scoping review. We found that ROI analyses of health interventions differed between those that only included fiscal savings (such as prevented medical expenses) and those which incorporated a wider range of benefits (such as monetised health benefits). This highlights the variation in the definition of ROI analyses and supports the finding that ROI analyses are used for a range of different research questions/purposes within the healthcare sector. We also found that the methodologies used in ROI calculations were inconsistent and often poorly reported. This review demonstrates that there is notable variation in the methodology surrounding recent ROI calculations of healthcare interventions, as well as the definition of ROI analysis. We recommend that ROI metrics should be carefully interpreted before they are used to inform policy decisions regarding the allocation of healthcare resources. To improve the consistency of future studies, we also set out recommended use cases for ROI analysis and a reporting checklist

Integrated management of a Swiss cropland is not sufficient to preserve its soil carbon pool in the long term

Croplands are involved in the exchange of carbon dioxide (CO2) between the atmosphere and the biosphere. Furthermore, soil carbon (C) stocks play an important role in soil fertility. It is thus of great interest to know whether intensively managed croplands act as a net source or sink of atmospheric CO2 and if soil C stocks are preserved over long timescales. The FluxNet site CH-Oe2 in Oensingen, Switzerland, has been operational since the end of 2003. This cropland is managed under the Swiss framework of the Proof of Ecological Performance (PEP, a variant of integrated management) with a crop rotation centred on winter wheat, which also includes winter barley, winter rapeseed, peas, potato and intermediate cover crops. In addition to eddy covariance measurements, meteorological and soil measurements were available along with information on C imports and exports from organic fertilisation, sowing and harvesting. This study investigates cropland C budgets over 13 years and assesses whether the PEP regulations resulted in a balanced C budget. The strongest CO2 uptake was observed during cereal seasons. C export through harvest, however, offset the strong uptake of the cereal crops. The largest net CO2 emissions to the atmosphere were observed during pea and cover crop seasons. Net biome production, representing the overall C budget (assuming carbon leaching to groundwater to be negligible), typically ranged between close to C neutral to C losses of up to 407&thinsp;g&thinsp;C&thinsp;m−2 per season, with peas being the largest source. Overall, the field lost 1674&thinsp;g&thinsp;C&thinsp;m−2 over 13 years (129&thinsp;g&thinsp;C&thinsp;m−2&thinsp;yr−1), which was confirmed by soil C stock measurements at the beginning and the end of the study period. Although managing the field under the regulations of PEP did not result in an overall C sink, model simulations showed that the use of cover crops reduced the C losses compared to leaving the field bare. The use of solid manure improved the C budget by importing substantial amounts of C into the soil, while liquid manure had only a small effect. We thus conclude that additional efforts are needed to bring Swiss management practices closer to the goal of preserving soil C in the long term.</p

Program Evaluation of Population- and System-Level Policies: Evidence for Decision Making

BACKGROUND: Policy evaluations often focus on ex post estimation of causal effects on short-term surrogate outcomes. The value of such information is limited for decision making, as the failure to reflect policy-relevant outcomes and disregard for opportunity costs prohibits the assessment of value for money. Further, these evaluations do not always consider all relevant evidence, other courses of action, or decision uncertainty. METHODS: In this article, we explore how policy evaluation could better meet the needs of decision making. We begin by defining the evidence required to inform decision making. We then conduct a literature review of challenges in evaluating policies. Finally, we highlight potential methods available to help address these challenges. RESULTS: The evidence required to inform decision making includes the impacts on the policy-relevant outcomes, the costs and associated opportunity costs, and the consequences of uncertainty. Challenges in evaluating health policies are described using 8 categories: 1) valuation space; 2) comparators; 3) time of evaluation; 4) mechanisms of action; 5) effects; 6) resources, constraints, and opportunity costs; 7) fidelity, adaptation, and level of implementation; and 8) generalizability and external validity. Methods from a broad set of disciplines are available to improve policy evaluation, relating to causal inference, decision-analytic modeling, theory of change, realist evaluation, and structured expert elicitation. LIMITATIONS: The targeted review may not identify all possible challenges, and the methods covered are not exhaustive. CONCLUSIONS: Evaluations should provide appropriate evidence to inform decision making. There are challenges in evaluating policies, but methods from multiple disciplines are available to address these challenges. IMPLICATIONS: Evaluators need to carefully consider the decision being informed, the necessary evidence to inform it, and the appropriate methods.[Box: see text]

Socio-demographic factors associated with early antenatal care visits among pregnant women in Malawi: 2004-2016

INTRODUCTION: In 2016, the WHO published recommendations increasing the number of recommended antenatal care (ANC) visits per pregnancy from four to eight. Prior to the implementation of this policy, coverage of four ANC visits has been suboptimal in many low-income settings. In this study we explore socio-demographic factors associated with early initiation of first ANC contact and attending at least four ANC visits ("ANC4+") in Malawi using the Malawi Demographic and Health Survey (MDHS) data collected between 2004 and 2016, prior to the implementation of new recommendations. METHODS: We combined data from the 2004-5, 2010 and 2015-16 MDHS using Stata version 16. Participants included all women surveyed between the ages of 15-49 who had given birth in the five years preceding the survey. We conducted weighted univariate, bivariate and multivariable logistic regression analysis of the effects of each of the predictor variables on the binary endpoint of the woman attending at least four ANC visits and having the first ANC attendance within or before the four months of pregnancy (ANC4+). To determine whether a factor was included in the model, the likelihood ratio test was used with a statistical significance of P< 0.05 as the threshold. RESULTS: We evaluated data collected in surveys in 2004/5, 2010 and 2015/6 from 26386 women who had given birth in the five years before being surveyed. The median gestational age, in months, at the time of presenting for the first ANC visit was 5 (inter quartile range: 4-6). The proportion of women initiating ANC4+ increased from 21.3% in 2004-5 to 38.8% in 2015-16. From multivariate analysis, there was increasing trend in ANC4+ from women aged 20-24 years (adjusted odds ratio (aOR) = 1.27, 95%CI:1.05-1.53, P = 0.01) to women aged 45-49 years (aOR = 1.91, 95%CI:1.18-3.09, P = 0.008) compared to those aged 15-19 years. Women from richest socio-economic position ((aOR = 1.32, 95%CI:1.12-1.58, P<0.001) were more likely to demonstrate ANC4+ than those from low socio-economic position. Additionally, women who had completed secondary (aOR = 1.24, 95%CI:1.02-1.51, P = 0.03) and tertiary (aOR = 2.64, 95%CI:1.65-4.22, P<0.001) education were more likely to report having ANC4+ than those with no formal education. Conversely increasing parity was associated with a reduction in likelihood of ANC4+ with women who had previously delivered 2-3 (aOR = 0.74, 95%CI:0.63-0.86, P<0.001), 4-5 (aOR = 0.65, 95%CI:0.53-0.80, P<0.001) or greater than 6 (aOR = 0.61, 95%CI: 0.47-0.79, <0.001) children being less likely to demonstrate ANC4+. CONCLUSION: The proportion of women reporting ANC4+ and of key ANC interventions in Malawi have increased significantly since 2004. However, we found that most women did not access the recommended number of ANC visits in Malawi, prior to the 2016 WHO policy change which may mean that women are less likely to undertake the 2016 WHO recommendation of 8 contacts per pregnancy. Additionally, our results highlighted significant variation in coverage according to key socio-demographic variables which should be considered when devising national strategies to ensure that all women access the appropriate frequency of ANC visits during their pregnancy