374 research outputs found
Why should older people invest less in stock than younger people?
Financial planners typically advise people to shift investments away from stocks and toward bonds as they age. The planners commonly justify this advice in three ways. They argue that stocks are less risky over a young person’s long investment horizon, that stocks are often necessary for young people to meet large financial obligations (like college tuition for their children), and that younger people have more years of labor income ahead with which to recover from the potential losses associated with stock ownership. This article uses economic reasoning to evaluate these three different justifications. It finds that the first two arguments do not make economic sense. The last argument is valid—but only for people with labor income that is relatively uncorrelated with stock returns. If a person’s labor income is highly correlated with stock returns, then that investor is better off shifting investments toward stocks over time.Saving and investment ; Stock market
Why Do IPO Auctions Fail?
We document a somewhat surprising regularity: of the many countries that have used IPO auctions, virtually all have abandoned them. The common explanations given for the lack of popularity of the auction method in the US, viz., issuer reluctance to try a new experimental method, and underwriter pressure towards methods that lead to higher fees, do not fit the evidence. We examine why auctions have failed and verify, to the extent possible, that they are consistent with what academic theory predicts. Both uniform price and discriminatory auctions are plagued by unexpectedly large fluctuations in the number of participants. The free rider problem and the winner's curse hamper price discovery and discourage investors from participating in auctions. Calculating the optimal bids in large multi-unit common value auctions with endogenous entry imposes a huge computational burden. With IPOs taking place sporadically, and each firm being different, auctions are likely to end up being unstable.
The simple analytics of commodity futures markets: do they stabilize prices? Do they raise welfare?
This paper uses a simple, graphical approach to analyze what happens to commodity prices and economic welfare when futures markets are introduced into an economy. It concludes that these markets do not necessarily make prices more or less stable. It also concludes that, contrary to common belief, whatever happens to commodity prices is not necessarily related to what happens to the economic welfare of market participants: even when futures markets reduce the volatility of prices, some people can be made worse off. These conclusions come from a series of models that differ in their assumptions about the primary function of futures markets, the structure of the industries involved, and the tastes and technologies of the market participants.Futures ; Commercial products
Understanding Mutual Fund and Hedge Fund Styles Using Return Based Style Analysis
We provide an introduction to the use of return based style analysis of Sharpe (1992) in practice. We demonstrate the importance of selecting the right style benchmarks and how the use of inappropriate style benchmarks may lead to wrong conclusions. When style analysis is applied to sector oriented funds such as healthcare, precious metals, energy, technology, etc., the set of benchmarks should include sector or industry indexes. Following Glosten and Jagannathan (1994), Fung and Hsieh (2001), and Agarwal and Naik (2001), we show how to analyze the investment style of hedge fund managers by including the returns on selected option based strategies as style benchmarks. In the examples we consider, return based style analysis provides insights not available through commonly used 'peer' evaluation alone.
Collaborative Learning of Stochastic Bandits over a Social Network
We consider a collaborative online learning paradigm, wherein a group of
agents connected through a social network are engaged in playing a stochastic
multi-armed bandit game. Each time an agent takes an action, the corresponding
reward is instantaneously observed by the agent, as well as its neighbours in
the social network. We perform a regret analysis of various policies in this
collaborative learning setting. A key finding of this paper is that natural
extensions of widely-studied single agent learning policies to the network
setting need not perform well in terms of regret. In particular, we identify a
class of non-altruistic and individually consistent policies, and argue by
deriving regret lower bounds that they are liable to suffer a large regret in
the networked setting. We also show that the learning performance can be
substantially improved if the agents exploit the structure of the network, and
develop a simple learning algorithm based on dominating sets of the network.
Specifically, we first consider a star network, which is a common motif in
hierarchical social networks, and show analytically that the hub agent can be
used as an information sink to expedite learning and improve the overall
regret. We also derive networkwide regret bounds for the algorithm applied to
general networks. We conduct numerical experiments on a variety of networks to
corroborate our analytical results.Comment: 14 Pages, 6 Figure
Relationship between labor-income risk and average return: empirical evidence from the Japanese stock market
In Japan, as in the United States, stocks that are more sensitive to changes in the monthly growth rate of labor income earn a higher return on average. Whereas the stock-index beta can only explain 2 percent of the cross-sectional variation in the average return on stock portfolios, the stock-index beta and the labor-beta together explain 75 percent of the variation. We find that the labor-beta drives out the size effect but not the book-to-market-price effect that is documented in the literature. We explore the extent to which these results are an artifact of seasonal patterns in labor-income growth rates as well as asset returns. In Japan, the book-to-market-price characteristic can be adequately captured by a particular factor-beta, as suggested by Fama and French (1993). This is in contrast to the findings reported by Daniel and Titman (1997) for the United States.Labor supply ; Stock - Prices ; Japan
When Does a Mutual Fund's Trade Reveal its Skill?
We conjecture that a mutual fund manager with superior stock selection ability is more likely to benefit from trading in stocks affected by information-events. Taking the probability of informed trading (PIN, Easley, Kiefer, O'Hara, and Paperman, 1996) to measure the amount of informed trading in a stock, and inferring mutual fund trades from a large sample of mutual fund holdings, we provide empirical support for the conjecture. Funds trading high-PIN stocks exhibit superior performance on average, and superior performance that is more likely to persist. The findings are not due to price momentum or the higher returns earned by high-PIN stocks on average. Conclusions remain the same after testing for alternative measures for the amount of informed trading. Decomposing a fund's stock selection ability into "informed trading" and "liquidity provision" adds further insight into fund's underlying strengths. Impatient informed trading is a significant source of alpha for funds trading high-PIN stocks, while liquidity provision is more important as a source of alpha for funds trading low-PIN stocks.
Do Hot Hands Exist Among Hedge Fund Managers? An Empirical Evaluation
We examine whether hot hands exist among hedge fund managers. In measuring performance persistence, we use hedge fund style benchmarks. This allows us to identify managers with valuable skills, and also to control for option-like features inherent in returns from hedge fund strategies. We take into account the possibility that reported asset values may be based on stale prices. We develop a statistical model that relates a hedge fund’s performance to its decision to liquidate or close in order to infer the performance of a hedge fund that left the database. While we find significant performance persistence among superior funds we find little evidence of persistence among inferior funds.
Valuing the Reload Features of Executive Stock Options
Under Statement of Financial Accounting Standards No. 123, the grant date value of executive stock options excludes the value of any reload feature because, at the time of writing the standard in 1995, the Financial Accounting Standards Board believed it was not feasible to value a reload feature at the grant date. We show how the Binomial Option Pricing Model can be used to determine the grant date value of such options. Ignoring the reload feature can substantially understate the value of the option: the reload feature increases the value of an otherwise similar option by 24 percent in the example we consider. In view of the potential significance of the reload feature and the versatility of the Binomial Option Pricing Model, the Financial Accounting Standards Board may wish to reconsider the accounting for options with a reload feature.
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