Effect of inflation on the growth and development of the Pakistan economy: An empirical analysis

High and sustained economic growth with low inflation is the central objective of the macroeconomic policy makers. Therefore, inflation has been one of the most researched topics in macroeconomics for the last many years because it has serious implications for GDP growth and performance. The main aim of this empirical study to examined the relationship between inflation and Gross Domestic Product performance in Pakistan by using time series data from 2000 to 2022. The major purpose of this study is to examine the existence of inflation- growth relationship in the economy of Pakistan and to analyse the impact of inflation on GDP growth of the economy. Augmented Dickey Fuller Unit Root Test is employed to check the unit root of the time series and Auto Regressive Distributive Lag (ARDL) technique is used to estimate the long run and short run impact of inflation in the economic growth of Pakistan. The present study uses Inflation as an independent variable and Gross Domestic Product is the dependent variable. The ultimate purpose of the study is find out long-term and short term relationships between these variables and investigate the effect of Inflation over Pakistan economic growth. A negative and significant inflation growth relationship has been found to be existed in the economy of Pakistan. The results of the study show that prevailing inflation is harmful to the GDP growth of the economy after a certain threshold level. On the basis of the descriptive and econometric analysis, this research study suggest to the policy makers and the State Bank of Pakistan to restrict the inflation in minimum level and to keep it stable. So that it may exert its positive effects on economic growth of the economy. Pakistan must need inflation but in single digit of inflation stimulate the economic growth

CAPITAL MARKET INTEGRATION OF ASEAN-5 COUNTRIES : AN EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS

The financial integration of South East Asian markets has been an important research topic. Due to the recent global developments in financial markets, the behaviours of these emerging markets are gaining much interest. This research paper empirically analyzes stock market integration of international portfolio diversification across the South East Asian countries, namely Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore and Thailand. The Augmented Dickey-Fuller unit root test has been used to verify the static properties of the market return of ASEAN countries. An analysis of the co-integration among these countries' market return has been done using the Johansen Co-integration Approach. The co-movements between the ASEAN economies were analyzed through the Granger Causality test. The results of the Granger causality tests indicate the interdependence between ASEAN-5 market returns. This suggests a co-movement among ASEAN capital markets, but not all of these ASEAN capital markets were fully integrated. This study also found that the Malaysia Stock Exchange, the Stock Exchange of Thailand, the Singapore Stock Exchange and the Philippines Stock Exchange were fully integrated, but Indonesia Stock Exchange was not. Essentially, this study provides insight for policymakers, portfolio managers, domestic and international investors, risk analysts, and financial researchers to diversify their investment portfolios by combining assets from each ASEAN-5 country