Segmentation of the Main Himalayan Thrust Illuminated by Bayesian Inference of Interseismic Coupling

We use a recent compilation of geodetic data of surface displacements in a fully Bayesian approach to derive a probabilistic estimate of interseismic coupling along the Main Himalayan Thrust (MHT). Our probabilistic estimate of interseismic coupling highlights four large, highly coupled patches separated by three potential barriers of low coupling. Locked patches overlap with estimated rupture areas of historical large earthquakes over the past centuries. The coincident spatial variability in coupling, seismicity, and prominent active topography suggests a structural segmentation of the MHT imposed by inherited tectonic structures from the India‐Eurasia collision. This correlation implies that inherited tectonic structures may affect how stress builds up along the MHT, thereby influencing the location and size of large Himalayan earthquakes and the growth of the mountain range

Coupled Rapid Erosion and Foreland Sedimentation Control Orogenic Wedge Kinematics in the Himalayan Thrust Belt of Central Nepal

Spatial and temporal coincidence among rapid Pliocene-Holocene bedrock exhumation, development of a topographic bight, abundant monsoonal precipitation, accumulation of anomalously thick proximal foreland basin deposits, and development of an opposite-polarity salient-reentrant couple on the two most frontal major thrust faults in the Himalayan orogenic wedge of central Nepal provide a basis for a model that links these diverse phenomena and could be operating in other parts of the frontal Himalaya. Rapid bedrock erosion is documented by a concentration of young (<5 Ma) low-temperature thermochronologic ages in the Narayani River catchment basin. Where the river exits the Lesser Himalayan Zone, the Main Boundary thrust has a 15-km-amplitude reentrant. Directly south of the reentrant lies the ∼50 km wide Chitwan wedge-top basin, which is confined by a large salient on the Main Frontal thrust. Rapid erosion and sediment flux out of the Narayani catchment basin, possibly due to anomalously intense monsoonal precipitation in this topographically depressed region of central Nepal, causes greater flexural subsidence and surface aggradation in the foreland, both of which increase initial wedge taper and render this region more susceptible to anomalous forward propagation of the thrust front. Analysis of the modern and post-early Miocene taper history of the thrust belt suggests that rapid erosion hindered forward propagation of the contemporaneous Main Boundary thrust, but simultaneously produced conditions in the foreland that eventually elevated initial taper to a critical/supercritical value promoting forelandward propagation of the Main Frontal thrust. This analysis has implications for large damaging earthquakes in the Himalaya. © 2021. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved.6 month embargo; first published: 06 March 2021This item from the UA Faculty Publications collection is made available by the University of Arizona with support from the University of Arizona Libraries. If you have questions, please contact us at [email protected]