Forecasting Population Changes and Service Requirements in the Regions: A Study of Two Regional Councils in Queensland, Australia

Forecasting population growth to meet the service needs of a growing population is a vexed issue. The task of providing essential services becomes even more difficult when future population growth forecasts are unavailable or unreliable. The aim of this paper is to identify the main methods used in population forecasting and thereby select an approach to demonstrate that such forecasting can be undertaken with certainly and transparency, barring exogenous events. We then use the population forecasts to plan for service needs that arise from changes in population in the future. Interestingly, although there are techniques available to forecast such future population changes and much of this forecasting occurs, such work remains somewhat clouded in mystery. We strive to rectify this situation by applying an approach that is verifiable, transparent, and easy to comprehend. For this purpose we select two regional councils in Queensland, Australia. The experience derived from forecasting shows that forecasts for service needs of larger populations are more easily and accurately derived than for smaller populations. Hence, there is some evidence, at least from a service provision point of view, to justify the benefits of council/municipality amalgamation in recent times in Australia and elsewhere. The methodology used in this paper for population forecasting and the provision of service needs based on such forecasts will be of particular interest to policy decision-makers and planners.Regional Population forecasting, service provision, Box-Jenkins model

Forecasting population changes and service requirements in the regions: a study of two regional councils in Queensland, Australia

Forecasting population growth to meet the service needs of a growing population is a vexed issue. The task of providing essential services becomes even more difficult when future population growth forecasts are unavailable or unreliable. The aim of this paper is to identify the main methods used in population forecasting and thereby select an approach to demonstrate that such forecasting can be undertaken with certainly and transparency, barring exogenous events. We then use the population forecasts to plan for service needs that arise from changes in population in the future. Interestingly, although there are techniques available to forecast such future population changes and much of this forecasting occurs, such work remains somewhat clouded in mystery. We strive to rectify this situation by applying an approach that is verifiable, transparent, and easy to comprehend. For this purpose we select two regional councils in Queensland, Australia. The experience derived from forecasting shows that forecasts for service needs of larger populations are more easily and accurately derived than for smaller populations. Hence, there is some evidence, at least from a service provision point of view, to justify the benefits of council/ municipality amalgamation in recent times in Australia and elsewhere. The methodology used in this paper for population forecasting and the provision of service needs based on such forecasts will be of particular interest to policy decisionmakers and planners.Regional Population forecasting, service provision, Box-Jenkins model

Development of a guayule production system for low-allergenic rubber in Australia

Guayule (Parthenium argentatum Gray) produces high quality, low-allergenic rubber that\ua0provides, potential for the crop to be commercialised. Previous intermittent attempts to\ua0commercialise guayule in the USA and Australia highlighted the need for further research to\ua0increase rubber yields and decrease production costs. Recently, considerable progress has\ua0been made in the USA with the release of high yielding lines.The broad objective of this research was to investigate the commercial potential of guayule\ua0in Australia. Experiments were conducted with three specific objectives. Firstly, to evaluate\ua0the performance of new guayule lines under different environmental conditions; germplasm\ua0trials were conducted at two sites in Southeast Queensland over nearly three years and\ua0involved testing USDA lines (AZ-1 to AZ-6) against two older lines (N 565 and 11591).\ua0Secondly, to gain greater understanding of mechanisms affecting dormancy, studies on the\ua0effects of promoters, inhibitors, light quality and seed coat on germination were undertaken.\ua0The third objective was to investigate the effects of seed and planting treatments on crop\ua0establishment at Gatton.Germplasm evaluation trials confirmed that both Chinchilla and Gatton were suitable for\ua0guayule production. Environmental conditions at Gatton, with clay soils rich in nutrients\ua0and a comparatively narrow temperature range were better than at Chinchilla. However, at\ua0Gatton, the high clay content which results in slow drainage after heavy summer rains, leads\ua0to water logging and may result in crop death due to soil borne diseases such as Rhizoctonia\ua0solani.Overall performance for plant growth and yields of dry matter, rubber and resin of the new\ua0lines, AZ-1 to AZ-6, was generally better than the old lines. AZ-1 and KL-2 maintained the\ua0best combinations of desirable traits, including plant uniformity, early vigorous growth,\ua0increased dry matter, and increased rubber and resin yields. Of these two, AZ-2 was better\ua0than AZ-1 due to its comparatively more uniform plant growth.AZ-1 and AZ-2 produced rubber yields of 567 kg/ha and 611 kg/ha respectively in the\ua0second year (17 months) at Gatton; rubber yields were 48% to 61% higher than those of the\ua0old lines. They produced rubber yields of 789 kg/ha and 771 kg/ha, respectively, at 32\ua0months at Gatton; rubber yields were 14% to 25% higher than those of the old lines. AtChinchilla, when plants were 33 months old, AZ-1 and AZ-2 produced rubber yields of 717\ua0kg/ha and 787 kg/ha, respectively; the yield increase over the old lines was between 86% and\ua0107%. Thus AZ-1 and AZ-2 were consistent performers at both sites, largely due to higher\ua0biomass; rubber content was intermediate in value.AZ-1 and AZ-2 also produced resin yields of 752 kg/ha and 663 kg/ha, respectively, at 17\ua0months. Resin yields of these two lines at 32 months were 1158 kg/ha and 1115 kg/ha\ua0respectively. At Chinchilla, AZ-1 (1318 kg/ha) and AZ-2 (1476 kg/ha) produced high resin\ua0yields. Thus resin yields of AZ-1 and AZ-2 were consistently high across sites. At both\ua0sites, resin yields were higher than rubber yields.Harvesting season affected rubber content. At Gatton, in spring, 17 month old plants\ua0produced a mean rubber content of 7.7%, while, in summer, when the plants were 32 month\ua0old, rubber content dropped to 6.4%. At Chinchilla, 33-month-old plants harvested in spring\ua0produced a rubber content of 7.4%, similar to the spring value at Gatton. By contrast, resin\ua0content appeared to be little affected by the season.A series of experiments was performed on both whole seed and naked embryo, under light\ua0and complete darkness, to gain a greater understanding of dormancy mechanisms. Both seed\ua0coat and light had significant effects on germination of guayule seed which varied in age\ua0from 19 day old to 8 month old. The seed coat had a much smaller effect on germination\ua0under light (up to 16%) than under dark conditions (25-26%). More rapid germination for\ua0embryo may indicate that the seed coat acts as a mechanical barrier to radicle emergence or\ua0to gas exchange, although this could be equally well explained by lower concentration of\ua0inhibitor in the embryo being more quickly overcome by light; the latter would support the\ua0promoter/inhibitor hypothesis of dormancy.This study provided evidence to suggest that seed dormancy/germination in guayule isregulated by the balance of germination promoters and inhibitors.\ua0 \ua0 \ua0 ....................

Positive melioidosis serology in a patient with adult onset Still’s disease: a case report of a diagnostic dilemma

Abstract Background Autoimmune disorders are known to produce false positives in serological tests for infections. Aetiological association between infections and autoimmunity, increased susceptibility to infectious and autoimmune disorders with immune dysregulation and non-specific polyclonal expansion of B cells with autoimmunity may cause confusion in diagnosis and patient management. We report a patient with Adult Onset Still’s Disease (AOSD) presenting with rising melioidosis antibody titres that caused diagnostic confusion. Case presentation A forty-nine-year-old female presented with prolonged fever, sore-throat, large joint arthritis, lymphadenopathy, hepatomegaly and transient rash. She had elevated inflammatory markers and a rising melioidosis antibody titre. The patient responded poorly to prolonged course of appropriate antimicrobials but showed rapid and sustained improvement with glucocorticoids. Conclusion Positive melioidosis serology could have been due to a co-infection or false positive antibody reaction due to non-specific B cell expansion or an indicator of true infection that triggered the immune dysregulation to develop AOSD

Forecasting population changes and service requirements in the regions: A study of two regional councils in Queensland, Australia

Forecasting population growth to meet the service needs of a growing population is a vexed issue. The task of providing essential services becomes even more difficult when future population growth forecasts are unavailable or unreliable. The aim of this paper is to identify the main methods used in population forecasting and thereby select an approach to demonstrate that such forecasting can be undertaken with certainly and transparency, barring exogenous events. We then use the population forecasts to plan for service needs that arise from changes in population in the future. Interestingly, although there are techniques available to forecast such future population changes and much of this forecasting occurs, such work remains somewhat clouded in mystery. We strive to rectify this situation by applying an approach that is verifiable, transparent, and easy to comprehend. For this purpose we select two regional councils in Queensland, Australia. The experience derived from forecasting shows that forecasts for service needs of larger populations are more easily and accurately derived than for smaller populations. Hence, there is some evidence, at least from a service provision point of view, to justify the benefits of council/municipality amalgamation in recent times in Australia and elsewhere. The methodology used in this paper for population forecasting and the provision of service needs based on such forecasts will be of particular interest to policy decision-makers and planners