Trade and Unemployment: What do the data say?

This paper documents a robust empirical regularity: in the long-run, higher trade openness is causally associated to a lower structural rate of unemployment. We es- tablish this fact using: (i) panel data from 20 OECD countries, (ii) cross-sectional data on a larger set of countries. The time structure of the panel data allows to deal with endogeneity concerns, whereas cross-sectional data make it possible to instru- ment openness by its geographical component. In both setups, we carefully purge the data from business cycle effects, include a host of institutional and geographical variables, and control for within-country trade. Our main finding is robust to various definitions of unemployment rates and openness measures. The preferred specification suggests that a 10 percent increase in total trade openness reduces unemployment by about one percentage point. Moreover, we show that openness affects unemployment mainly through its effect on TFP and that labor market institutions do not appear to condition the effect of openness.international trade, real openness, unemployment, GMM models, IV esti- mation.

Cosmological lensing ratios with DES Y1, SPT, and Planck

Correlations between tracers of the matter density field and gravitational lensing are sensitive to the evolution of the matter power spectrum and the expansion rate across cosmic time. Appropriately defined ratios of such correlation functions, on the other hand, depend only on the angular diameter distances to the tracer objects and to the gravitational lensing source planes. Because of their simple cosmological dependence, such ratios can exploit available signal-to-noise ratio down to small angular scales, even where directly modelling the correlation functions is difficult. We present a measurement of lensing ratios using galaxy position and lensing data from the Dark Energy Survey, and CMB lensing data from the South Pole Telescope and Planck, obtaining the highest precision lensing ratio measurements to date. Relative to the concordance ΛCDM model, we find a best-fitting lensing ratio amplitude of A = 1.1 ± 0.1. We use the ratio measurements to generate cosmological constraints, focusing on the curvature parameter. We demonstrate that photometrically selected galaxies can be used to measure lensing ratios, and argue that future lensing ratio measurements with data from a combination of LSST and Stage-4 CMB experiments can be used to place interesting cosmological constraints, even after considering the systematic uncertainties associated with photometric redshift and galaxy shear estimation

Dark Energy Survey year 1 results: Galaxy-galaxy lensing

We present galaxy-galaxy lensing measurements from 1321 sq. deg. of the Dark Energy Survey (DES) Year 1 (Y1) data. The lens sample consists of a selection of 660,000 red galaxies with high-precision photometric redshifts, known as redMaGiC, split into five tomographic bins in the redshift range 0.15 < z < 0.9. We use two different source samples, obtained from the Metacalibration (26 million galaxies) and im3shape (18 million galaxies) shear estimation codes, which are split into four photometric redshift bins in the range 0.2 < z < 1.3. We perform extensive testing of potential systematic effects that can bias the galaxy-galaxy lensing signal, including those from shear estimation, photometric redshifts, and observational properties. Covariances are obtained from jackknife subsamples of the data and validated with a suite of log-normal simulations. We use the shear-ratio geometric test to obtain independent constraints on the mean of the source redshift distributions, providing validation of those obtained from other photo-z studies with the same data. We find consistency between the galaxy bias estimates obtained from our galaxy-galaxy lensing measurements and from galaxy clustering, therefore showing the galaxy-matter cross-correlation coefficient r to be consistent with one, measured over the scales used for the cosmological analysis. The results in this work present one of the three two-point correlation functions, along with galaxy clustering and cosmic shear, used in the DES cosmological analysis of Y1 data, and hence the methodology and the systematics tests presented here provide a critical input for that study as well as for future cosmological analyses in DES and other photometric galaxy surveys

Developing a novel approach to analyse the regimes of temporary streams and their controls on aquatic biota

Temporary streams are those water courses that undergo the recurrent cessation of flow or the complete drying of their channel. The biological communities in temporary stream reaches are strongly dependent on the temporal changes of the aquatic habitats determined by the hydrological conditions. The use of the aquatic fauna structural and functional characteristics to assess the ecological quality of a temporary stream reach can not therefore be made without taking into account the controls imposed by the hydrological regime. This paper develops some methods for analysing temporary streams' aquatic regimes, based on the definition of six aquatic states that summarize the sets of mesohabitats occurring on a given reach at a particular moment, depending on the hydrological conditions: flood, riffles, connected, pools, dry and arid. We used the water discharge records from gauging stations or simulations using rainfall-runoff models to infer the temporal patterns of occurrence of these states using the developed aquatic states frequency graph. The visual analysis of this graph is complemented by the development of two metrics based on the permanence of flow and the seasonal predictability of zero flow periods. Finally, a classification of the aquatic regimes of temporary streams in terms of their influence over the development of aquatic life is put forward, defining Permanent, Temporary-pools, Temporary-dry and Episodic regime types. All these methods were tested with data from eight temporary streams around the Mediterranean from MIRAGE project and its application was a precondition to assess the ecological quality of these streams using the current methods prescribed in the European Water Framework Directive for macroinvertebrate communities