Upper Limits on the 21 cm Power Spectrum at z = 5.9 from Quasar Absorption Line Spectroscopy

We present upper limits on the 21 cm power spectrum at $z = 5.9$ calculated from the model-independent limit on the neutral fraction of the intergalactic medium of $x_{\rm H{\small I }} < 0.06 + 0.05\ (1\sigma)$ derived from dark pixel statistics of quasar absorption spectra. Using 21CMMC, a Markov chain Monte Carlo Epoch of Reionization analysis code, we explore the probability distribution of 21 cm power spectra consistent with this constraint on the neutral fraction. We present 99 per cent confidence upper limits of $\Delta^2(k) < 10$ to $20\ {\rm mK}^2$ over a range of $k$ from 0.5 to $2.0\ h{\rm Mpc}^{-1}$, with the exact limit dependent on the sampled$k$mode. This limit can be used as a null test for 21 cm experiments: a detection of power at$z=5.9$ in excess of this value is highly suggestive of residual foreground contamination or other systematic errors affecting the analysis.Comment: 5 pages, 1 figure, accepted to MNRAS letter

Constraints on the temperature of the intergalactic medium at z=8.4 with 21-cm observations

We compute robust lower limits on the spin temperature, $T_{\rm S}$, of the $z=8.4$ intergalactic medium (IGM), implied by the upper limits on the 21-cm power spectrum recently measured by PAPER-64. Unlike previous studies which used a single epoch of reionization (EoR) model, our approach samples a large parameter space of EoR models: the dominant uncertainty when estimating constraints on $T_{\rm S}$. Allowing $T_{\rm S}$ to be a free parameter and marginalizing over EoR parameters in our Markov Chain Monte Carlo code 21CMMC, we infer $T_{\rm S}\ge3 {\rm K}$ (corresponding approximately to $1\sigma$) for a mean IGM neutral fraction of $\bar{x}_{\rm H{\scriptsize I}}\gtrsim0.1$. We further improve on these limits by folding-in additional EoR constraints based on: (i) the dark fraction in QSO spectra, which implies a strict upper limit of $\bar{x}_{\rm H{\scriptsize I}}[z=5.9]\leq 0.06+0.05 \,(1\sigma)$; and (ii) the electron scattering optical depth, $\tau_{\rm e}=0.066\pm0.016\,(1\sigma)$ measured by the Planck satellite. By restricting the allowed EoR models, these additional observations tighten the approximate $1\sigma$ lower limits on the spin temperature to $T_{\rm S} \ge 6$ K. Thus, even such preliminary 21-cm observations begin to rule out extreme scenarios such as `cold reionization', implying at least some prior heating of the IGM. The analysis framework developed here can be applied to upcoming 21-cm observations, thereby providing unique insights into the sources which heated and subsequently reionized the very early Universe.Comment: 7 pages, 1 figure, accepted to MNRAS (matches online version

A Sensitivity and Array-Configuration Study for Measuring the Power Spectrum of 21cm Emission from Reionization

Telescopes aiming to measure 21cm emission from the Epoch of Reionization must toe a careful line, balancing the need for raw sensitivity against the stringent calibration requirements for removing bright foregrounds. It is unclear what the optimal design is for achieving both of these goals. Via a pedagogical derivation of an interferometer's response to the power spectrum of 21cm reionization fluctuations, we show that even under optimistic scenarios, first-generation arrays will yield low-SNR detections, and that different compact array configurations can substantially alter sensitivity. We explore the sensitivity gains of array configurations that yield high redundancy in the uv-plane -- configurations that have been largely ignored since the advent of self-calibration for high-dynamic-range imaging. We first introduce a mathematical framework to generate optimal minimum-redundancy configurations for imaging. We contrast the sensitivity of such configurations with high-redundancy configurations, finding that high-redundancy configurations can improve power-spectrum sensitivity by more than an order of magnitude. We explore how high-redundancy array configurations can be tuned to various angular scales, enabling array sensitivity to be directed away from regions of the uv-plane (such as the origin) where foregrounds are brighter and where instrumental systematics are more problematic. We demonstrate that a 132-antenna deployment of the Precision Array for Probing the Epoch of Reionization (PAPER) observing for 120 days in a high-redundancy configuration will, under ideal conditions, have the requisite sensitivity to detect the power spectrum of the 21cm signal from reionization at a 3\sigma level at k<0.25h Mpc^{-1} in a bin of \Delta ln k=1. We discuss the tradeoffs of low- versus high-redundancy configurations.Comment: 34 pages, 5 figures, 2 appendices. Version accepted to Ap

A Bayesian approach to high fidelity interferometric calibration II: demonstration with simulated data

In a companion paper, we presented BayesCal, a mathematical formalism for mitigating sky-model incompleteness in interferometric calibration. In this paper, we demonstrate the use of BayesCal to calibrate the degenerate gain parameters of full-Stokes simulated observations with a HERA-like hexagonal close-packed redundant array, for three assumed levels of completeness of the a priori known component of the calibration sky model. We compare the BayesCal calibration solutions to those recovered by calibrating the degenerate gain parameters with only the a priori known component of the calibration sky model both with and without imposing physically motivated priors on the gain amplitude solutions and for two choices of baseline length range over which to calibrate. We find that BayesCal provides calibration solutions with up to four orders of magnitude lower power in spurious gain amplitude fluctuations than the calibration solutions derived for the same data set with the alternate approaches, and between $\sim10^7$ and $\sim10^{10}$ times smaller than in the mean degenerate gain amplitude on the full range of spectral scales accessible in the data. Additionally, we find that in the scenarios modelled only BayesCal has sufficiently high fidelity calibration solutions for unbiased recovery of the 21 cm power spectrum on large spectral scales ($k_\parallel \lesssim 0.15~h\mathrm{Mpc}^{-1}$). In all other cases, in the completeness regimes studied, those scales are contaminated

Constraining High Redshift X-ray Sources with Next Generation 21 cm Power Spectrum Measurements

We use the Fisher matrix formalism and semi-numerical simulations to derive quantitative predictions of the constraints that power spectrum measurements on next-generation interferometers, such as the Hydrogen Epoch of Reionization Array (HERA) and the Square Kilometre Array (SKA), will place on the characteristics of the X-ray sources that heated the high redshift intergalactic medium. Incorporating observations between $z=5$ and $z=25$, we find that the proposed 331 element HERA and SKA phase 1 will be capable of placing $\lesssim 10\%$ constraints on the spectral properties of these first X-ray sources, even if one is unable to perform measurements within the foreground contaminated "wedge" or the FM band. When accounting for the enhancement in power spectrum amplitude from spin temperature fluctuations, we find that the observable signatures of reionization extend well beyond the peak in the power spectrum usually associated with it. We also find that lower redshift degeneracies between the signatures of heating and reionization physics lead to errors on reionization parameters that are significantly greater than previously predicted. Observations over the heating epoch are able to break these degeneracies and improve our constraints considerably. For these two reasons, 21\,cm observations during the heating epoch significantly enhance our understanding of reionization as well.Comment: 15 pages, 10 figures, Accepted to MNRA

The Statistics of Negative Power Spectrum Systematics in some 21 cm Analyses

Through a very careful analysis Kolopanis et al. (2022) identified a negative power spectrum (PS) systematic. The 21 cm cosmology community has assumed that any observational systematics would add power, as negative PS are non-physical. In addition to the mystery of their origin, negative PS systematics raise the spectre of artificially lowering upper limits on the 21 cm PS. It appears that the source of the negative PS systematics is a subtle interaction between choices in how the PS estimate is calculated and baseline-dependent systematic power. In this paper we present a statistical model of baseline dependent systematics to explore how negative PS systematics can appear and their statistical characteristics. This leads us to recommendations on when and how to consider negative PS systematics when reporting observational 21 cm cosmology upper limit.Comment: Submitted to MNRA