Last improvements in the data assimilation scheme for the Mediterranean Analysis and Forecast system of the Copernicus Marine Service

The Mediterranean Forecasting System (MFS) is a numerical ocean prediction system that produces analyses, reanalyses and short term forecasts for the entire Mediterranean Sea and its Atlantic Ocean adjacent areas. The system is now part of the Copernicus Marine Environment Monitoring Service (CMEMS) providing regular and systematic information about the physical state and dynamics of the Mediterranean Sea through the Med-MFC (Mediterranean Monitoring and Forecasting Center). MFS has been implemented in the Mediterranean Sea with 1/16o horizontal resolution and 72 vertical levels and is composed by the hydrodynamic model NEMO (Nucleus for European Modelling of the Ocean) 2-way online coupled with the third generation wave model WaveWatchIII (Clementi et al., 2017a) and forced by ECMWF atmospheric fields at 1/8° horizontal resolution. The model solutions are corrected by the data assimilation system (3D variational scheme, Dobricic and Pinardi, 2008) with a daily assimilation cycle of along track satellite Sea Level Anomaly (SLA) and vertical profiles of Temperature and Salinity from ARGO and gliders. In this study we present a new estimate of the background error covariance matrix with vertical Empirical Orthogonal Functions (EOFs) that are defined at each grid point of the model domain in order to better account for the error covariance between temperature and salinity in the shelf and open ocean areas. Moreover the Observational error covariance matrix is z-dependent and varies in each month. This new dataset has been tested and validated for more than 2 years against a background error correlation matrix varying only seasonally and in thirteen sub-regions of the Mediterranean Sea (Dobricic et al. 2005).PublishedBergen, Norway3SR. AMBIENTE - Servizi e ricerca per la Societ

Last improvements in the data assimilation scheme for the Mediterranean Analysis and Forecast system of the Copernicus Marine Service

The Mediterranean Forecasting System (MFS) is a numerical ocean prediction system that produces analyses, reanalyses and short term forecasts for the entire Mediterranean Sea and its Atlantic Ocean adjacent areas. The system is now part of the Copernicus Marine Environment Monitoring Service (CMEMS) providing regular and systematic information about the physical state and dynamics of the Mediterranean Sea through the Med-MFC (Mediterranean Monitoring and Forecasting Center). MFS has been implemented in the Mediterranean Sea with 1/16o horizontal resolution and 72 vertical levels and is composed by the hydrodynamic model NEMO (Nucleus for European Modelling of the Ocean) 2-way online coupled with the third generation wave model WW3 (WaveWatchIII) and forced by ECMWF atmospheric fields at 1/8o horizontal resolution. The model solutions are corrected by the data assimilation system (3D variational-3Dvar scheme adapted to the oceanic assimilation problem, Dobricic and Pinardi, 2008) with a daily assimilation cycle of satellite Sea Level Anomaly (SLA) and vertical profiles of Temperature and Salinity. In this study we present a new estimate the of the background error covariance matrix with vertical Empirical Orthogonal Functions (EOFs) that are defined at each grid point of the model domain in order to better account for the error covariance between temperature and salinity in the shelf and open ocean areas. Moreover the Error covariance matrix is z-dependent and varies in each month. This new dataset has been tested and validated for more than 2 years against a background error correlation matrix varying only seasonally and in thirteen sub-regions of the Mediterranean Sea. Latest developments include the implementation of an upgraded 3Dvar (Storto et al. 2012) for a high-resolution model, 1/24o in the horizontal and 141 vertical levelsPublishedBergen, Norway3SR. AMBIENTE - Servizi e ricerca per la Societ

The Mediterranean analysis and forecasting physical system for the Copernicus Marine Service: description and skill assessment

The Mediterranean Analysis and Forecasting System is a numerical ocean prediction system that operationally produces analyses and 10 days forecasts of the main physical parameters for the entire Mediterranean Sea and its Atlantic Ocean adjacent areas. The system is composed by the hydrodynamic model NEMO (Nucleus for European Modelling of the Ocean) 2-way coupled with the third-generation wave model WW3 (WaveWatchIII) and forced by ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts) atmospheric fields. The forecast initial conditions are produced by a 3D variational data assimilation system which considers a daily assimilation cycle of Sea Level Anomaly, vertical profiles of Temperature and Salinity from ARGO and ship CTDs and heat flux corrections with satellite SST. The system has been recently upgraded in the framework of the Copernicus Marine Environment Monitoring Service (CMEMS) by increasing the grid resolution from 1/16 to 1/24 degree in the horizontal, thus becoming fully mesoscale resolving and from 72 to 141 vertical levels, by increasing the number of fresh water river inputs and by updating the data assimilation scheme. The model has a non-linear explicit free surface and the forecast is forced by surface pressure, interactive heat, momentum and water fluxes at the air-sea interface. The focus of this work is to present the latest modeling system upgrades and the related improvements achieved by showing the model skill assessment including comparison with independent (insitu coastal moorings) and quasi-independent (insitu vertical profiles and satellite) datasets.PublishedHalifax, Nova Scotia, Canada4A. Oceanografia e clim

Mediterranean Sea Analysis and Forecast (CMEMS MED-Currents 2016-2019)

INGVPublished4A. Oceanografia e clim

Mediterranean Sea Analysis and Forecast (CMEMS MED-Currents 2016-2019)

Copernicus Marine Environment Monitoring ServicePublished4A. Oceanografia e clim

A 1/24 degree resolution Mediterranean analysis and forecast modeling system for the Copernicus Marine Environment Monitoring Service

The Mediterranean Forecasting System (MFS) is a numerical ocean prediction system that operationally produces analyses, reanalyses and short-term forecasts of the main physical parameters for the entire Mediterranean Sea and its Atlantic Ocean adjacent areas. This work is specifically focused on the description and evaluation of the analysis and forecast modeling system that covers the analysis of the current situation and produces daily updates of the following 10 days forecast. The system has been recently upgraded in the framework of the Copernicus Marine Environment Monitoring Service (CMEMS) by increasing the grid resolution from 1/16o to 1/24o in the horizontal and from 72 to 141 vertical levels, by increasing the number of fresh water river inputs and by updating the data assimilation scheme. The model has a non-linear explicit free surface and it is forced by surface pressure, interactive heat, momentum and water fluxes at the air-sea interface. In order to validate the modeling system and to estimate the accuracy of the model products, a quality assessment is regularly performed including both pre-operational qualification and near real time (NRT) validation procedures. Pre-operational qualification activities focus on testing the improvements of the quality of the new system with respect to the previous version and relies on past simulation and historical data, while NRT validation activities aim at routinely and on-line providing the skill assessment of the model analysis and forecasts and relies on the NRT available observations. The focus of this work is to present the new operational modeling system and the skill assessment including comparison with independent (insitu coastal moorings) and quasi-independent (insitu vertical profiles and satellite) datasets.PublishedBergen, Norway3SR. AMBIENTE - Servizi e ricerca per la Societ

A 1/24° resolution Mediterranean physical analysis and forecasting system for the Copernicus Marine Environment Monitoring Service

This study describes a new model implementation for the Mediterranean Sea that has been achieved in the framework of the Copernicus Marine Environment Monitoring Service (CMEMS). The numerical ocean prediction system, that operationally produces analyses and forecasts of the main physical parameters for the entire Mediterranean Sea and its Atlantic Ocean adjacent areas, has been upgraded by increasing the grid resolution from 1/16o to 1/24o in the horizontal and from 72 to 141 unevenly spaced vertical levels, by increasing the number of fresh water river inputs and by updating the data assimilation scheme. The model has a non-linear explicit free surface and it is forced by surface pressure, interactive heat, momentum and water fluxes at the airsea interface. The focus of this work is to present the new modelling system which will become operational in the near future and the validation assessment including the comparison with an independent non assimilated dataset (coastal moorings) and quasi-independent (in situ vertical profiles and satellite) datasets. The results show that the higher resolution model is capable of representing most of the variability of the general circulation in the Mediterranean Sea, however some improvements need to be implemented in order to enhance the model ability in reproducing specific hydrodynamic features particularly the Sea Level Anomaly.PublishedBergen, Norway3SR. AMBIENTE - Servizi e ricerca per la Societ

Higher resolution physical numerical model of the Mediterranean Sea in the Copernicus Marine Service

INGV is responsible for the operational production of the physical component of the Mediterranean Sea Monitoring and Forecasting Centre (Med-MFC) of the Copernicus Marine Service Monitoring System (CMEMS). The system was implemented in 2000 by the INGV National Group of Operational oceanography (GNOO) and has been developed in years thanks to a number of European projects. The Med-MFC is a coupled hydrodynamic-wave model with data assimilation component with a resolution of 1/16°. The model solutions are corrected by the variational assimilation (based on a 3DVAR scheme) of Temperature and Salinity vertical profiles (from ARGO, CTD, XBT and Gliders observations) and along track satellite Sea Level Anomaly (SLA) observations. In order to meet the requirements for Copernicus Marine Service Phase I the increase of the horizontal (to 1/24°) and vertical resolution of the hydrodynamic component of Med-MFC has been planned. The major improvements expected from this development are the following: 1) to better resolve the mesoscale processes in the Mediterranean region where the Rossby radius of deformation is about 12-15 km (1/24° is about 4-5 km); 2) to resolve the tidal forcing at Gibraltar, entering from the Atlantic into the Mediterranean, known to provide about 30% amplitude of the tidal signal in the Mediterranean; 3) to better resolve vertical mixing processes.UnpublishedIstituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia. Sede Centrale. Roma3SR. AMBIENTE - Servizi e ricerca per la Societ

The Copernicus Marine Service ocean forecasting system for the Mediterranean Sea

The Mediterranean Monitoring and Forecasting Center (MED-MFC) is part of the Copernicus Marine Environment and Monitoring Service (CMEMS) and provides regular and systematic information on the time-evolving Mediterranean Sea physical (including waves) and biogeochemical state. The systems consist of 3 components: 1) Med-Physics, a numerical ocean prediction systems, based on NEMO model, that operationally produces analyses, reanalysis and short term forecasts of the main physical parameters; 2) Med-Biogeochemistry, a biogeochemical analysis, reanalysis and forecasting system based on the Biogeochemical Flux Model (BFM) which provides information on chlorophyll, phosphate, nitrate, primary productivity, oxygen, phytoplankton biomass, pH and pCO2; 3) Med-Waves based on WAM model and providing analysis, forecast and reanalysis products for waves. The systems have been recently upgraded at a resolution of 1/24 degree in the horizontal and 141 vertical levels. The Med-Physics analysis and forecasting system is composed by the hydrodynamic model NEMO 2-way coupled with the third-generation wave model WaveWatchIII and forced by ECMWF atmospheric fields. The model solutions are corrected by the 3DVAR data assimilation system (3D variational scheme adapted to the oceanic assimilation problem) with a daily assimilation cycle of sea level anomaly and vertical profiles of temperature and salinity. The model has a non-linear explicit free surface and it is forced by surface pressure, interactive heat, momentum and water fluxes at the air-sea interface. The biogeochemical analysis and forecasts are produced by means of the MedBFM v2.1 modeling system (i.e. the physical-biogeochemical OGSTM-BFM model coupled with the 3DVARBIO assimilation scheme) forced by the outputs of the Med-Physics product. Seven days of analysis/hindcast and ten days of forecast are bi-weekly produced on Wednesday and on Saturday, with the assimilation of surface chlorophyll concentration from satellite observations. In-situ data are mainly used to estimate model uncertainty at different spatial scales. The Med-Waves modelling system is based on the WAM Cycle 4.5.4 wave model code. It consists of a wave model grid covering the Mediterranean Sea at a 1/24° horizontal resolution, nested to a North Atlantic grid at a 1/6° resolution. The system is forced by ECMWF winds at 1/8°. Refraction due to surface currents is accounted by the system which assimilates altimeter along-track significant wave height observations. On a daily basis, it provides 1-day analysis and 5-day forecast hourly wave parameters. Currently, wave buoy observations of significant wave height and mean wave period along with satellite observations are used to calibrate and validate the Med-waves modelling system.PublishedHalifax, Nova Scotia, Canada4A. Oceanografia e clim

Mediterranean monitoring and forecasting operational system for Copernicus Marine Service

The MEDiterranean Monitoring and Forecasting Center (Med-MFC) is part of the Copernicus Marine Environment Monitoring Service (CMEMS, http://marine.copernicus.eu/), provided on an operational mode by Mercator Ocean in agreement with the European Commission. Specifically, Med MFC system provides regular and systematic information about the physical state of the ocean and marine ecosystems for the Mediterranean Sea. The Med-MFC service started in May 2015 from the pre-operational system developed during the MyOcean projects, consolidating the understanding of regional Mediterranean Sea dynamics, from currents to biogeochemistry to waves, interfacing with local data collection networks and guaranteeing an efficient link with other Centers in Copernicus network. The Med-MFC products include analyses, 10 days forecasts and reanalysis, describing currents, temperature, salinity, sea level and pelagic biogeochemistry. Waves products will be available in MED-MFC version in 2017. The consortium, composed of INGV (Italy), HCMR (Greece) and OGS (Italy) and coordinated by the Euro-Mediterranean Centre on Climate Change (CMCC, Italy), performs advanced R&D activities and manages the service delivery. The Med-MFC infrastructure consists of 3 Production Units (PU), for Physics, Biogechemistry and Waves, a unique Dissemination Unit (DU) and Archiving Unit (AU) and Backup Units (BU) for all principal components, guaranteeing a resilient configuration of the service and providing and efficient and robust solution for the maintenance of the service and delivery. The Med-MFC includes also an evolution plan, both in terms of research and operational activities, oriented to increase the spatial resolution of products, to start wave products dissemination, to increase temporal extent of the reanalysis products and improving ocean physical modeling for delivering new products. The scientific activities carried out in 2015 concerned some improvements in the physical, biogeochemical and wave components of the system. Regarding the currents, new grid-point EOFs have been implemented in the Med-MFC assimilation system; the climatological CMAP precipitation was replaced by the ECMWF daily precipitation; reanalysis time-series have been increased by one year. Regarding the biogeochemistry, the main scientific achievement is related to the implementation of the carbon system in the Med-MFC biogeochemistry model system already available. The new model is able to reproduce the principal spatial patterns of the carbonate system variables in the Mediterranean Sea. Further, a key result consists of the calibration of the new variables (DIC and alkalinity), which serves to the estimation of the accuracy of the new products to be released in the next version of the system (i.e. pH and pCO2 at surface). Regarding the waves, the system has been validated against in-situ and satellite observations. For example, a very good agreement between model output and in-situ observations has been obtained at offshore and/or well-exposed wave buoys in the Mediterranean Sea.PublishedVienna3SR. AMBIENTE - Servizi e ricerca per la Societ