Testing for Moral Hazard and Ranking Farms by Their Inclination to Collect Crop Damage Compensations

This paper tests for the extent of moral hazard problem within a Crop Damage Compensation (CDC) program that is similar to traditional multi peril crop insurances but is publicly funded and openly accessible for all farmers in Finland. We further estimate the potential of using the observed farmer and farm characteristics in ranking and classifying farms according to their incidence towards losses when they are protected. The data are the claimed and granted indemnity payments for each farm over the fifteen year period of 1995-2009. These data are complemented by data on total farm population in 2005. The data suggest that most of the farmers (60%) have not made any claims in the CDC program over the 15 year period. Those farms that claimed compensation did so typically either once or twice within the 15 year period. Nevertheless, a substantial number of farmers have claimed and also granted indemnity payments more regularly than can be justified by the exogenous (aggregate level) yield distributions. Based on the logit models, farmers and farms with certain observed characteristics are more inclined to the losses than the others. In general presence of animals declines the probability of crop damage. However, the existence of different animals on the farm classifies the farms by their inclination to collect crop damage compensations. In addition, the fixed municipality effects are significant indicating that the persons in charge for appraising the losses implement different standardsFarm Management, Risk and Uncertainty,

Rural Investment and the Cost of Income Uncertainty

This paper studies optimal investment decision in agriculture under diminishing income expectations. The goal is to study the cost of income uncertainty and its implications to the efficiency of investment subsidies. Investment decision is modelled as a Markov decision process, extended to account for risk. Applying a stochastic programming approach, the cost of imperfect information is evaluated as the difference between the profitability of investment under stable income and under uncertain income. Computational experiments demonstrate that the cost of imperfect information can be high, deteriorating the efficiency of investment subsidies. Also, examples suggest that the optimal timing of the investment can be sensitive to risk.

Investment and the Dynamic Cost of Income Uncertainty: the Case of Diminishing Expectations in Agriculture

This paper studies optimal investment and the dynamic cost of income uncertainty, applying a stochastic programming approach. The motivation is given by a case study in Finnish agriculture. Investment decision is modelled as a Markov decision process, extended to account for risk. A numerical framework for studying the dynamic uncertainty cost is presented, modifying the classical expected value of perfect information to a dynamic setting. The uncertainty cost depends on the volatility of income; e.g. with stationary income, the dynamic uncertainty cost corresponds to a dynamic option value of postponing investment. The numerical investment model also yields the optimal investment behavior of a representative farm. The model can be applied e.g. in planning investment subsidies for maintaining target investments. In the case study, the investment decision is sensitive to risk.Financial Economics,

Dynamics of Phosphorus Fertilization and Liming Under Land Tenure Insecurity

This article solves and characterizes optimal decision rules to invest in irreversible land improvements conditional on land tenure insecurity. Economic model is a normative dynamic programming model with known parameter for the one period returns and transition equations. The decision rules are solved numerically conditional on alternative scenarios on the likelihood that the lease contract and, thus, farmer access to land is either renewed or expires. The model parameters represent Finnish soil quality and production conditions. The results suggest that irreversible land improvements decrease quickly and the yields decline gradually when the farmer is confronted with land tenure insecurity caused by uncertain renewal of the lease contract.agriculture, dynamic programming, Land Economics/Use, Q15, Q21,

Forward Hedging Under Price and Production Risk of Wheat

This paper estimates optimal hedging ratios for a Finnish spring wheat producer under price and yield risk. The forward contract available for hedging fixes the price and quantity at the time of sowing for a delivery at harvest. Autoregressive models are used to obtain point forecasts for the conditional mean price and price volatility at harvest. Expected yield and yield volatility are estimated from the field experiment data. A range of coefficients of absolute risk aversion are used in the computations. The results suggest that yield volatility is large and it dominates the price volatility in the optimal hedging decisions of the Finnish wheat producers. Nevertheless, a potential for large negative correlation between the price and the yield decreases the optimal hedging ratio since the Finnish farmers do not have access to selling put options when they enter in a forward contract.hedging ratio, risk, forward contract, Financial Economics, Risk and Uncertainty, Q14,

Land Improvements Under Land Tenure Insecurity: The Case of Liming in Finland

This article solves and characterizes optimal decision rules to invest in irreversible land improvements conditional on land tenure insecurity. Economic model is a normative dynamic programming model with known parameters for the one period returns and transition equations. The optimal decision rules for liming are solved numerically, conditional on alternative scenarios on the likelihood that the lease contract and, thus, farmer access to land is either renewed or expired. The model parameters represent Finnish soil quality and production conditions. The results suggest that irreversible liming decreases quickly and the yields decline gradually, when the farmer is confronted with land tenure insecurity caused by uncertain renewal of the lease contract. The results are confirmed via empirical results.Land tenure, Liming, Land Economics/Use,

Semi-Parametric Modeling of Investments in Energy Installations

This paper applies a semi-parametric approach to estimating a generalised model of investments in energy installations. The model accounts for irreversibility and lumpiness of investments by linking a parametric specification of the unobservable dynamic shadow price to observed investment behaviour using a non-parametric specification of the adjustment cost function. The results suggest that marginal costs of investments in energy installations increase quickly at small investment levels, whereas the increase slows down at higher investment levels. Therefore, standard parametric adjustment cost models are likely biased such that they over-estimate small investments and under-estimate large investments.Investments, horticulture, semi-parametric estimation, Resource /Energy Economics and Policy,