Transition from Inflation to Price Stability

This paper provides a detailed discussion of the real phenomena that materialized in the stabilization period which followed the German hyper-inflation. Significant real dislocations arose after the monetary reform; and these can be attributed to a government policy which subsidized heavy industry through the inflation tax proceeds. The "credibility problem" appears not to have been a significant factor in the post-reform dislocation.

Transición a una red funcional de seguridad financiera en América Latina

(Disponible en idioma inglés únicamente) La arquitectura básica de la red de seguridad financiera mundial permite la existencia de u sistema de instituciones afines: un prestamista de última instancia, garantía de depósitos y regulación prudencial. En países cuyos sistemas bancarios adolecen de graves posiciones negativas de capital y de exceso de intermediación bancaria, tales como algunos mercados latinoamericanos, las redes de seguridad y los mecanismos detallados de su funcionamiento pueden no ser funcionales para reducir el exceso de riesgo a asumir. Ofrecen a los bancos sólidos incentivos para duplicar sus posibilidades de supervivencia. Así, las posiciones negativas de capital de los bancos quedan eliminadas con inyecciones de capital, liquidaciones y fusiones.

Banks in the Market for Liquidity

Banks are unique among financial institutions because they are the cheapest source of liquidity in the economy. Banks choose to hold reserves to facilitate settlement of end-of-day net due to positions arising from payments operations. Money market substitutes for bank liabilities do not escape from the cost of reserves since their issuers lean on banks to provide liquidity. Since the cost of reserves falls on all issuers of less liquid liabilities seeking access to payment services, including non-bank intermediaries, reserves cannot represent a tax on the banking system alone.

Is It 1958 or 1968? Three Notes on the Longevity of the Revived Bretton Woods System

This paper examines the durability of what we have elsewhere called the Revived Bretton Woods system. We show that the recent behavior of long-term interest rates is consistent with market expectations that the system will last for a considerable period. We also show that emerging economies with chronic current account surpluses have not experienced the financial crises that many have predicted will trigger the system’s breakdown. Unusually long episodes of current account surpluses and reserve accumulations have been followed by real depreciation and capital gains on reserves, with little or no disruption of economic activity. We argue that, under the original Bretton Woods system, the definition of the balance of payments considered relevant was based on the assumption that collateral, not trust, supports international capital flows. We view the current system as likewise supported by collateral, in the form of goods already produced and delivered to the United States.macroeconomics, 1958, 1968, Longevity, Revived Bretton Woods System

The Linkage Between Speculative Attack and Target Zone Models of Exchange Rates

In this paper we generalize the target zone exchange rate as model formalized by Krugman (1988b) to include finite-sized interventions in defense of the zone. The main contributions of these pages consist of linking the recent developments in the theory of target zones to the mirror-image theory of speculative attacks on asset price fixing regimes and in using aspects of that linkage to give an intuitive interpretation to the smooth pasting" condition usually invoked as a terminal condition.

A Systematic Banking Collapse in a Perfect Foresight World

In this paper we present a model in which a systematic banking collapse is possible in a perfect foresight, general equilibrium context. Our aim is to determine con3itions under which a collapse will eventually occur and the timing of such a collapse. The collapse can occur endogenously, driven by market fundamentals. Alternatively, it can be caused by a mass hysteria which generates itself in reality. Vie also compare the assumptions and implications of our model to the observable phenomena of the 1930's.

Process Consistency and Monetary Reform: Further Evidence and Implications

In this paper we provide additional evidence that process consistency may have materialized as a restrictive constraint on the money generation process. In addition to recomputing the time series of process consistency probabilities using new data from the German case, we also supply our empirical technique to the data from the other hyperinflations studied by Cagan. We interpret our results as evidence hearing on the type of transversality condition studied by Brock or by Brock and Scheinkman as a sufficient condition to insure a unique equilibrium in optimizing models with perfect foresight and money.

Bank Runs in Open Economies and The International Transmission of Panics

In this paper, we extend the bank run literature to an open economy model. We show that a foreign banking system, by raising deposit rates in the presence of a domestic banking panic, may generate sufficient liquid resources to acquire assets sold by the domestic banking system at bargain prices. In this case, foreign depositors will benefit from the domestic panic. We also show that our simple model is able to generate the spreading of panics. Perhaps not surprisingly, the crucial element in determining the propagation of financial crises is the effect of interest rates on savings decisions.