Age-specific vaccine effectiveness of seasonal 2010/2011 and pandemic influenza A(H1N1) 2009 vaccines in preventing influenza in the United Kingdom

An analysis was undertaken to measure age-specific vaccine effectiveness (VE) of 2010/11 trivalent seasonal influenza vaccine (TIV) and monovalent 2009 pandemic influenza vaccine (PIV) administered in 2009/2010. The test-negative case-control study design was employed based on patients consulting primary care. Overall TIV effectiveness, adjusted for age and month, against confirmed influenza A(H1N1)pdm 2009 infection was 56% (95% CI 42–66); age-specific adjusted VE was 87% (95% CI 45–97) in <5-year-olds and 84% (95% CI 27–97) in 5- to 14-year-olds. Adjusted VE for PIV was only 28% (95% CI x6 to 51) overall and 72% (95% CI 15–91) in <5-year-olds. For confirmed influenza B infection, TIV effectiveness was 57% (95% CI 42–68) and in 5- to 14-year-olds 75% (95% CI 32–91). TIV provided moderate protection against the main circulating strains in 2010/2011, with higher protection in children. PIV administered during the previous season provided residual protection after 1 year, particularly in the <5 years age group

Estimating the Population Impact of a New Pediatric Influenza Vaccination Program in England Using Social Media Content

BACKGROUND: The rollout of a new childhood live attenuated influenza vaccine program was launched in England in 2013, which consisted of a national campaign for all 2 and 3 year olds and several pilot locations offering the vaccine to primary school-age children (4-11 years of age) during the influenza season. The 2014/2015 influenza season saw the national program extended to include additional pilot regions, some of which offered the vaccine to secondary school children (11-13 years of age) as well. OBJECTIVE: We utilized social media content to obtain a complementary assessment of the population impact of the programs that were launched in England during the 2013/2014 and 2014/2015 flu seasons. The overall community-wide impact on transmission in pilot areas was estimated for the different age groups that were targeted for vaccination. METHODS: A previously developed statistical framework was applied, which consisted of a nonlinear regression model that was trained to infer influenza-like illness (ILI) rates from Twitter posts originating in pilot (school-age vaccinated) and control (unvaccinated) areas. The control areas were then used to estimate ILI rates in pilot areas, had the intervention not taken place. These predictions were compared with their corresponding Twitter-based ILI estimates. RESULTS: Results suggest a reduction in ILI rates of 14% (1-25%) and 17% (2-30%) across all ages in only the primary school-age vaccine pilot areas during the 2013/2014 and 2014/2015 influenza seasons, respectively. No significant impact was observed in areas where two age cohorts of secondary school children were vaccinated. CONCLUSIONS: These findings corroborate independent assessments from traditional surveillance data, thereby supporting the ongoing rollout of the program to primary school-age children and providing evidence of the value of social media content as an additional syndromic surveillance tool

Evaluating the next generation of RSV intervention strategies: a mathematical modelling study and cost-effectiveness analysis

© 2020, The Author(s). Background: With a suite of promising new RSV prophylactics on the horizon, including long-acting monoclonal antibodies and new vaccines, it is likely that one or more of these will replace the current monoclonal Palivizumab programme. However, choosing the optimal intervention programme will require balancing the costs of the programmes with the health benefits accrued. Methods: To compare the next generation of RSV prophylactics, we integrated a novel transmission model with an economic analysis. We estimated key epidemiological parameters by calibrating the model to 7 years of historical epidemiological data using a Bayesian approach. We determined the cost-effective and affordable maximum purchase price for a comprehensive suite of intervention programmes. Findings: Our transmission model suggests that maternal protection of infants is seasonal, with 38–62% of infants born with protection against RSV. Our economic analysis found that to cost-effectively and affordably replace the current monoclonal antibody Palivizumab programme with long-acting monoclonal antibodies, the purchase price per dose would have to be less than around £4350 but dropping to £200 for vaccinated heightened risk infants or £90 for all infants. A seasonal maternal vaccine would have to be priced less than £85 to be cost-effective and affordable. While vaccinating pre-school and school-age children is likely not cost-effective relative to elderly vaccination programmes, vaccinating the elderly is not likely to be affordable. Conversely, vaccinating infants at 2 months seasonally would be cost-effective and affordable if priced less than £80. Conclusions: In a setting with seasonal RSV epidemiology, maternal protection conferred to newborns is also seasonal, an assumption not previously incorporated in transmission models of RSV. For a country with seasonal RSV dynamics like England, seasonal programmes rather than year-round intervention programmes are always optimal

Framework for better living with HIV in England

Duration: April 2007 - May 2009 Sigma Research was funded by Terrence Higgins Trust to co-ordinate the development of a framework to address the health, social care, support and information needs of people with diagnosed HIV in England. It has now been published as the Framework for better living with HIV in England. The over-arching goal of the framework is that all people with diagnosed HIV in England "are enabled to have the maximum level of health, well-being, quality of life and social integration". In its explanation of how this should occur the document presents a road map for social care, support and information provision to people with diagnosed HIV in England. By establishing and communicating aims and objectives, the framework should build consensus and provide a means to establish how interventions could be prioritised and coordinated. The key drivers for the framework were clearly articulated ethical principles, agreed by all those who sign up to it, and an inclusive social development / health promotion approach. Sigma Research worked on the framework with a range of other organisations who sent representatives to a Framework Development Group (see below for membership). The framework is evidence-based and seeks to: Promote and protect the rights and well-being of all people with HIV in England. Maximise the capacity of individuals and groups of people with HIV to care for, advocate and represent themselves effectively. Improve and protect access to appropriate information, social support, social care and clinical services. Minimise social, economic, governmental and judicial change detrimental to the health and well being of people with HIV. Alongside the development of the framework, Sigma Research undertook a national needs assessment among people with diagnosed HIV across the UK called What do you need?. These two projects informed and supported each other. Framework Development Group included: African HV Policy Network Black Health Agency George House Trust NAM NAT (National AIDS Trust) Positively Women Terrence Higgins Trus

Antibody responses to nasopharyngeal carriage of Streptococcus pneumoniae in adults: A longitudinal household study

Background. Natural immunity to Streptococcus pneumoniae is thought to be induced by exposure to S. pneumoniae or cross-reactive antigens. No longitudinal studies of carriage of and immune responses to S. pneumoniae have been conducted using sophisticated immunological laboratory techniques.Methods. We enrolled 121 families with young children into this study. Nasopharyngeal (NP) swabs were collected monthly for 10 months from all family members and were cultured in a standard fashion. Cultured S. pneumoniae isolates were serotyped. At the beginning (month 0) and end (month 10) of the study, venous blood was collected from family members 118 years old. Serotype-specific antipolysaccharide immunoglobulin G (IgG) and functional antibody and antibodies to pneumolysin, pneumococcal surface protein A (PspA), and pneumococcal surface antigen A (PsaA) were measured in paired serum samples.Results. Levels of anticapsular IgG increased significantly after carriage of serotypes 9V, 14, 18C, 19F, and 23F by an individual or family member. For serotype 14, a higher level of anticapsular IgG at the beginning of the study was associated with reduced odds of carriage (P = .0006). There was a small (similar to 20%) but significant increase in titers of antibodies to PsaA and pneumolysin but no change in titers of antibody to PspA.Conclusions. Adults respond to NP carriage by mounting anticapsular and weak antiprotein antibody responses, and naturally induced anticapsular IgG can prevent carriage

Timing of positive blood samples does not differentiate pathogens causing healthcare-associated from community-acquired bloodstream infections in children in England: a linked retrospective cohort study.

Paediatricians recognize that using the time-dependent community-acquired vs. hospital-acquired bloodstream infection (BSI) dichotomy to guide empirical treatment no longer distinguishes between causative pathogens due to the emergence of healthcare-associated BSIs. However, paediatric epidemiological evidence of the aetiology of BSIs in relation to hospital admission in England is lacking. For 12 common BSI-causing pathogens in England, timing of laboratory reports of positive paediatric (3 months to 5 years) bacterial blood isolates were linked to in-patient hospital data and plotted in relation to hospital admission. The majority (88·6%) of linked pathogens were isolated <2 days after hospital admission, including pathogens widely regarded as hospital acquired: Enterococcus spp. (67·2%) and Klebsiella spp. (88·9%). Neisseria meningitidis, Streptococcus pneumoniae, group A streptococcus and Salmonella spp. were unlikely to cause hospital-acquired BSI. Pathogens commonly associated with hospital-acquired BSI are being isolated <2 days after hospital admission alongside pathogens commonly associated with community-acquired BSI. We confirm that timing of blood samples alone does not differentiate between bacterial pathogens. Additional factors including clinical patient characteristics and healthcare contact should be considered to help predict the causative pathogen and guide empirical antibiotic therapy

Epidemiology of laboratory-confirmed respiratory syncytial virus infection in young children in England, 2010-2014: the importance of birth month

The epidemiology of laboratory-confirmed respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) infections in young children has not recently been described in England, and is an essential step in identifying optimal target groups for future licensed RSV vaccines. We used two laboratory surveillance systems to examine the total number and number of positive RSV tests in children aged <5 years in England from 2010 to 2014. We derived odds ratios (ORs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) comparing children by birth month, using multivariable logistic regression models adjusted for age, season and sex. Forty-seven percent of RSV tests (29 851/63 827) and 57% (7405/13 034) of positive results in children aged <5 years were in infants aged <6 months. Moreover, 38% (4982/13 034) of positive results were in infants aged <3 months. Infants born in September, October and November had the highest odds of a positive RSV test during their first year of life compared to infants born in January (OR 2·1, 95% CI 1·7-2·7; OR 2·4, 95% CI 2·1-2·8; and OR 2·4, 95% CI 2·1-2·7, respectively). Our results highlight the importance of young age and birth month near the beginning of the RSV season to the risk of laboratory-confirmed RSV infection. Future control measures should consider protection for these groups

Changes in transmission of Enterovirus D68 (EV-D68) in England inferred from seroprevalence data.

The factors leading to the global emergence of Enterovirus D68 (EV-D68) in 2014 as a cause of acute flaccid myelitis (AFM) in children are unknown. To investigate potential changes in virus transmissibility or population susceptibility, we measured the seroprevalence of EV-D68-specific neutralising antibodies in serum samples collected in England in 2006, 2011, and 2017. Using catalytic mathematical models, we estimate an approximately 50% increase in the annual probability of infection over the 10-year study period, coinciding with the emergence of clade B around 2009. Despite such increase in transmission, seroprevalence data suggest that the virus was already widely circulating before the AFM outbreaks and the increase of infections by age cannot explain the observed number of AFM cases. Therefore, the acquisition of or an increase in neuropathogenicity would be additionally required to explain the emergence of outbreaks of AFM. Our results provide evidence that changes in enterovirus phenotypes cause major changes in disease epidemiology

Links between surface productivity and deep ocean particle flux at the Porcupine Abyssal Plain sustained observatory

In this study we present hydrography, biogeochemistry and sediment trap observations between 2003 and 2012 at Porcupine Abyssal Plain (PAP) sustained observatory in the Northeast Atlantic. The time series is valuable as it allows for investigation of the link between surface productivity and deep ocean carbon flux. The region is a perennial sink for CO2, with an average uptake of around 1.5 mmol m?2 day?1. The average monthly drawdowns of inorganic carbon and nitrogen were used to quantify the net community production (NCP) and new production. Seasonal NCP and new production were found to be 4.57 ± 0.85 mol C m?2 and 0.37 ± 0.14 mol N m?2, respectively. The C : N ratio was high (12) compared to the Redfield ratio (6.6), and the production calculated from carbon was higher than production calculated from nitrogen, which is indicative of carbon overconsumption. The export ratio and transfer efficiency were 16 and 4 %, respectively, and the site thereby showed high flux attenuation. Particle tracking was used to examine the source region of material in the sediment trap, and there was large variation in source regions, both between and within years. There were higher correlations between surface productivity and export flux when using the particle-tracking approach, than by comparing with the mean productivity in a 100 km box around the PAP site. However, the differences in correlation coefficients were not significant, and a longer time series is needed to draw conclusions on applying particle tracking in sediment trap analyses