Unemployment expectations across heterogeneous groups

Relying on ISAE Italian data on consumers' unemployment expectations, we analyse the process of unemployment expectations formation across different socio-economic groups, distinguished according to their working condition. We find that employees are unable to correctly incorporate the effects of the Biagi Law. This evidence seems to show that these agents do not consider the new forms of temporary job, resulting from the application of Biagi Law, as proper “employment†and hence do not correctly interpreted them as a reduction in the unemployment trend. This aspect may provide some preliminary explanations for the evidence of Italian consumers'' pessimism about the dynamics of the labour market, despite the falling of the unemployment rate occurred in Italy during the last years.

Further Evidence on Convergence across Italian Regions

In the last decade the issue of convergence across states and regions has received a great deal of attention both on the theoretical and empirical ground. On the empirical ground different specifications lead to different results and their robustness is also questioned. We review both neoclassical and endogenous growth theories and the evidence on international and Italian data. We use a methodology that enhances the power of the estimates proposed by Evans and Karras (Journal of Monetary Economics, 1996) that uses panel data and test for their stochastic properties. Data cover the time-span 1951-1998. We find evidence of conditional convergence.

A note on openness and economic growth in Italy, 1861-1994

'This paper analyzes the long-run relationship between trade (exports, imports and their sum) and growth for Italy using a nonparametric cointegration approach, which is less demanding than conventional methods in terms of assumptions on the data generating process. The authors find a positive correlation between these variables. They relate this result with historical developments.' (author's abstract

Further Evidence on Convergence across Italian Regions

In the last decade the issue of convergence across states and regions has received a great deal of attention both on the theoretical and empirical ground. On the empirical ground different specifications lead to different results and their robustness is also questioned. We review both neoclassical and endogenous growth theories and the evidence on international and Italian data. We use a methodology that enhances the power of the estimates proposed by Evans and Karras (Journal of Monetary Economics, 1996) that uses panel data and test for their stochastic properties. Data cover the time-span 1951-1998. We find evidence of conditional convergence

Time Series Estimates of the Italian Consumer Confidence Indicator

This work shows that Italian consumer confidence indicator (CCI) is non-stationary and, therefore, can be estimated with the time series methods. It is found that a long-run relationship exists between CCI, short-term interest rate, industrial production index and the difference between perceived and measured inflation. The use of time series methods to estimate CCI for Italy is a novelty in the literature.Consumer confidence indicator, Short-term interest rate, Perceived rate of inflation, Cointegration.

Psychology, consumer sentiment and household expenditures: a disaggregated analysis

The aim of the paper is to assess the role of the Italian Consumer Sentiment Index (CSI) as an autonomous driving force of consumption decisions. We test for the presence of “rule of thumb” consumers as originally proposed by Cambell and Mankiw (1991), using sentiment measures distinguished by working condition of the household. Consumption data are disaggregated according to durability. The role of sentiment results to be stronger for service expenditures. Psychological motives of employees are found to have a particularly significant influence on consumption decisions. Moreover, CSI can not be explained by economic fundamentals alone, capturing also the effects of the political cycle and exceptional circumstances

Access to credit for Italian firms: new evidence from the ISTAT confidence business surveys

The paper aims at investigating on the credit conditions experienced by Italian firms during the recent business cycle. In doing so, we use a novel dataset on firms’ opinions derived from the ISTAT Business Confidence surveys. The dataset allows us to add to existing literature in three different ways: first of all, the availability of a very rich set of information on firms' perceptions enables us to study a number of factors possibly influencing credit conditions at the firm level; secondly, the analysis may be extended beyond the Manufacturing sector, considering also the Construction, Retail and Services sectors; thirdly, the high frequency of the data helps in shedding light into the most recent period following the sovereign debt crisis, for which available evidence is still scarce. Starting from these considerations, three different panel data model are estimated, relating the probability of being credit constrained to various individual characteristics of the firms and of the sector in which they operate. Obtaining credit for Italian firms results to be easier in the North and being a Medium-Large firm. Moreover, access to credit is also found to crucially depend on individual credit worthiness; in Manufacturing, productive internationalization is found to have a negative effect on access to credit. Over time, credit conditions are particularly negative during the financial crisis, progressively recovering in 2009-2010. A new deterioration has been perceived by Italian firms since mid-2011, with the emerging of the sovereign debt crisis; this assessment is progressively translating into an effective credit rationing towards the end of last year and in the first months of 2012

An Indicator of Credit Crunch using Italian Business Surveys

This paper presents a two-step procedure to derive a credit crunch indicator for the Italian manufacturing sector. Using qualitative firm-level data over the years 2008-2018, nonlinear discrete panel data techniques are first applied in order to identify the loan supply curve controlling for firm-specific observable characteristics. In the subsequent step, the variation of the estimated supply curve that cannot be explained by proxies for loan demand is interpreted as the degree of credit squeeze prevailing in the economy at a given point in time. The empirical evidence shows that credit crunch episodes are less likely to occur during periods of sustained economic growth, or when credit availability for the manufacturing sector is relatively abundant. In contrast, a tight monetary policy stance or a worsening of the quality of banking balance sheets tend to increase the likelihood of experiencing a credit squeez

Time Series Estimates of the Italian Consumer Confidence Indicator

This work shows that Italian consumer confidence indicator (CCI) is non-stationary and, therefore, can be estimated with the time series methods. It is found that a long-run relationship exists between CCI, short-term interest rate, industrial production index and the difference between perceived and measured inflation. The use of time series methods to estimate CCI for Italy is a novelty in the literature