Are we there yet? Australian road safety targets and road traffic crash fatalities

Background: Road safety targets are widely used and provide a basis for evaluating progress in road safety outcomes against a quantified goal. In Australia, a reduction in fatalities from road traffic crashes (RTCs) is a public policy objective: a national target of no more than 5.6 fatalities per 100,000 population by 2010 was set in 2001. The purpose of this paper is to examine the progress Australia and its states and territories have made in reducing RTC fatalities, and to estimate when the 2010 target may be reached by the jurisdictions. Methods. Following a descriptive analysis, univariate time-series models estimate past trends in fatality rates over recent decades. Data for differing time periods are analysed and different trend specifications estimated. Preferred models were selected on the basis of statistical criteria and the period covered by the data. The results of preferred regressions are used to determine out-of-sample forecasts of when the national target may be attained by the jurisdictions. Though there are limitations with the time series approach used, inadequate data precluded the estimation of a full causal/structural model. Results: Statistically significant reductions in fatality rates since 1971 were found for all jurisdictions with the national rate decreasing on average, 3% per year since 1992. However the gains have varied across time and space, with percent changes in fatality rates ranging from an 8% increase in New South Wales 1972-1981 to a 46% decrease in Queensland 1982-1991. Based on an estimate of past trends, it is possible that the target set for 2010 may not be reached nationally, until 2016. Unsurprisingly, the analysis indicated a range of outcomes for the respective state/territory jurisdictions though these results should be interpreted with caution due to different assumptions and length of data. Conclusions: Results indicate that while Australia has been successful over recent decades in reducing RTC mortality, an important gap between aspirations and achievements remains. Moreover, unless there are fairly radical ("trend-breaking") changes in the factors that affect the incidence of RTC fatalities, deaths from RTCs are likely to remain above the national target in some areas of Australia, for years to come

Belt use in serious impacts estimated from fatality data. Technical report.

Mode of access: Internet.COP: 2Author corporate affiliation: National Highway Traffic Safety Administration, Washington, D.C.Subject code: EFSubject code: EODSubject code: JA*JNSubject code: JLIFSubject code: JLSSubject code: LCCSubject code: PDDHSubject code: PDDSSubject code: RCBD

Lives saved by child restraints from 1982 through 1987. NHTSA technical report.

Mode of access: Internet.Author corporate affiliation: National Highway Traffic Safety Administration, National Center for Statistics and Analysis, Washington, D.C.Subject code: DGEORFSubject code: JA*JNSubject code: PDDSCSubject code: XLM

Lives saved by seat belts from 1983 through 1987.

Mode of access: Internet.COP: 2Author corporate affiliation: National Highway Traffic Safety Administration, Mathematical Analysis Division, Washington, D.C.Subject code: JA*JNSubject code: JALSubject code: PDDSSubject code: RCC

Papers on car size - safety and trends. Technical report.

Mode of access: Internet.Author corporate affiliation: National Highway Traffic Safety Administration, National Center for Statistics and Analysis, Washington, D.C.Report covers the period 1988-1989Subject code: DECDSubject code: JA*JNSubject code: JESubject code: JLIFSubject code: JLKBSubject code: NKHLSubject code: PDD

THE EFFECTIVENESS OF CHILD SAFETY SEAT LAWS IN THE FIFTY STATES

This study evaluates the effectiveness of state child safety seat laws in the United States. Data for all fifty states for the period 1975 to 1994 are used. Pooled time series analysis is employed to estimate a model of the rate of fatalities suffered by children ages 0-5 years as occupants in automobile crashes. The occupant fatality rate for children 6-11 years of age is used as a comparison group to control for other trends not introduced in the estimated models. The results show that child safety seat policies have significantly reduced fatality rates among children 0-5 years of age. For each additional year of age covered by a state statute, this fatality rate drops 4.8%. A similar reduction in the fatality rate of the older age cohort (6-11 years old) was not observed. Copyright 2001 by The Policy Studies Organization.