An aggregate model of petroleum production capacity and supply forecasting

This paper presents a complete discussion and documentation of the M.I.T. World Oil Project Aggregate Supply Model. First, the theoretical development and methodology are presented. The relationships between geologic and economic characteristics are analyzed and a system of equations representing the inertial process model are derived. Next, the construction of the data is described and the data, by country segment, is presented in detail. Methods of bridging the many gaps in the data are discussed. Finally, the simulation forecasts of the model are presented through 1990. *This research has been supported by the National Science Foundation under Grant No. DAR 78-19044. However, any opinions, findings, conclusions or recommendations expressed herein are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of NSF. The work also is supported by the M.I.T. Center for Energy Policy Research. We wish to thank the following individuals for their comments on earlier drafts: P. Eckbo, H. Jacoby, R. Pindyck, J. Smith, and M. Zimmerman. Also, for research assistance and help in data analysis we thank J. Carson, W. Christian, D. McDonald, H. Owsley, G. Ward, and, in particular, A. Sterling. For editing and typing we are grateful to S. Mehta and A. Sanderson.NSF grant no. DAR 78-19044

Supply instability and oil market behavior

This paper analyzes the disruption in world oil markets which was triggered by the 1978-79 Iranian revolution. The resultant price rises are explored in the context of the behavior of the spot market and key OPEC countries. In particular, the economic and political roles of excess oil supply in the Persian Gulf nations are discussed. Conclusions for the likely future are presented, along with the implications for United States policy.NSF grant no. DAR 78-19044

Financial markets and the adjustment to higher oil prices

A great deal has been written on the actual and potential effects of the oil price increase on world financial markets, but relatively little emphasis has been placed on the role played by financial markets in the adjustment of the energy markets themselves. This paper explores the linkages betwee

The international finance aspects of OPEC : an informational note

National Science Foundation Grant no. SIA75-0073

Therapygenetics: using genetic markers to predict response to psychological treatment for mood and anxiety disorders

Considerable variation is evident in response to psychological therapies for mood and anxiety disorders. Genetic factors alongside environmental variables and gene-environment interactions are implicated in the etiology of these disorders and it is plausible that these same factors may also be important in predicting individual differences in response to psychological treatment. In this article, we review the evidence that genetic variation influences psychological treatment outcomes with a primary focus on mood and anxiety disorders. Unlike most past work, which has considered prediction of response to pharmacotherapy, this article reviews recent work in the field of therapygenetics, namely the role of genes in predicting psychological treatment response. As this is a field in its infancy, methodological recommendations are made and opportunities for future research are identified

Analysis of over 10,000 cases finds no association between previously reported candidate polymorphisms and ovarian cancer outcome

Background: Ovarian cancer is a leading cause of cancer-related death among women. In an effort to understand contributors to disease outcome, we evaluated single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNP) previously associated with ovarian cancer recurrence or survival, specifically in angiogenesis, inflammation, mitosis, and drug disposition genes.<p></p> Methods: Twenty-seven SNPs in <i>VHL, HGF, IL18, PRKACB, ABCB1, CYP2C8, ERCC2</i>, and <i>ERCC1</i> previously associated with ovarian cancer outcome were genotyped in 10,084 invasive cases from 28 studies from the Ovarian Cancer Association Consortium with over 37,000-observed person-years and 4,478 deaths. Cox proportional hazards models were used to examine the association between candidate SNPs and ovarian cancer recurrence or survival with and without adjustment for key covariates.<p></p> Results: We observed no association between genotype and ovarian cancer recurrence or survival for any of the SNPs examined.<p></p> Conclusions: These results refute prior associations between these SNPs and ovarian cancer outcome and underscore the importance of maximally powered genetic association studies. Impact: These variants should not be used in prognostic models. Alternate approaches to uncovering inherited prognostic factors, if they exist, are needed.<p></p&gt

Variation in NF-κB signaling pathways and survival in invasive epithelial ovarian cancer.

Survival in epithelial ovarian cancer (EOC) is influenced by the host immune response, yet the key genetic determinants of inflammation and immunity that affect prognosis are not known. The nuclear factor-κB (NF-κB) transcription factor family plays an important role in many immune and inflammatory responses, including the response to cancer. We studied common inherited variation in 210 genes in the NF-κB family in 10,084 patients with invasive EOC (5,248 high-grade serous, 1,452 endometrioid, 795 clear cell, and 661 mucinous) from the Ovarian Cancer Association Consortium. Associations between genotype and overall survival were assessed using Cox regression for all patients and by major histology, adjusting for known prognostic factors and correcting for multiple testing (threshold for statistical significance, P < 2.5 × 10(-5)). Results were statistically significant when assessed for patients of a single histology. Key associations were with caspase recruitment domain family, member 11 (CARD11) rs41324349 in patients with mucinous EOC [HR, 1.82; 95% confidence interval (CI), 1.41-2.35; P = 4.13 × 10(-6)] and tumor necrosis factor receptor superfamily, member 13B (TNFRSF13B) rs7501462 in patients with endometrioid EOC (HR, 0.68; 95% CI, 0.56-0.82; P = 2.33 × 10(-5)). Other associations of note included TNF receptor-associated factor 2 (TRAF2) rs17250239 in patients with high-grade serous EOC (HR, 0.84; 95% CI, 0.77-0.92; P = 6.49 × 10(-5)) and phospholipase C, gamma 1 (PLCG1) rs11696662 in patients with clear cell EOC (HR, 0.43; 95% CI, 0.26-0.73; P = 4.56 × 10(-4)). These associations highlight the potential importance of genes associated with host inflammation and immunity in modulating clinical outcomes in distinct EOC histologies

Variation in NF-κB signaling pathways and survival in invasive epithelial ovarian cancer.

Survival in epithelial ovarian cancer (EOC) is influenced by the host immune response, yet the key genetic determinants of inflammation and immunity that affect prognosis are not known. The nuclear factor-κB (NF-κB) transcription factor family plays an important role in many immune and inflammatory responses, including the response to cancer. We studied common inherited variation in 210 genes in the NF-κB family in 10,084 patients with invasive EOC (5,248 high-grade serous, 1,452 endometrioid, 795 clear cell, and 661 mucinous) from the Ovarian Cancer Association Consortium. Associations between genotype and overall survival were assessed using Cox regression for all patients and by major histology, adjusting for known prognostic factors and correcting for multiple testing (threshold for statistical significance, P < 2.5 × 10(-5)). Results were statistically significant when assessed for patients of a single histology. Key associations were with caspase recruitment domain family, member 11 (CARD11) rs41324349 in patients with mucinous EOC [HR, 1.82; 95% confidence interval (CI), 1.41-2.35; P = 4.13 × 10(-6)] and tumor necrosis factor receptor superfamily, member 13B (TNFRSF13B) rs7501462 in patients with endometrioid EOC (HR, 0.68; 95% CI, 0.56-0.82; P = 2.33 × 10(-5)). Other associations of note included TNF receptor-associated factor 2 (TRAF2) rs17250239 in patients with high-grade serous EOC (HR, 0.84; 95% CI, 0.77-0.92; P = 6.49 × 10(-5)) and phospholipase C, gamma 1 (PLCG1) rs11696662 in patients with clear cell EOC (HR, 0.43; 95% CI, 0.26-0.73; P = 4.56 × 10(-4)). These associations highlight the potential importance of genes associated with host inflammation and immunity in modulating clinical outcomes in distinct EOC histologies

Large-scale evaluation of common variation in regulatory T cell-related genes and ovarian cancer outcome.

The presence of regulatory T cells (Treg) in solid tumors is known to play a role in patient survival in ovarian cancer and other malignancies. We assessed inherited genetic variations via 749 tag single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNP) in 25 Treg-associated genes (CD28, CTLA4, FOXP3, IDO1, IL10, IL10RA, IL15, 1L17RA, IL23A, IL23R, IL2RA, IL6, IL6R, IL8, LGALS1, LGALS9, MAP3K8, STAT5A, STAT5B, TGFB1, TGFB2, TGFB3, TGFBR1, TGRBR2, and TGFBR3) in relation to ovarian cancer survival. We analyzed genotype and overall survival in 10,084 women with invasive epithelial ovarian cancer, including 5,248 high-grade serous, 1,452 endometrioid, 795 clear cell, and 661 mucinous carcinoma cases of European descent across 28 studies from the Ovarian Cancer Association Consortium (OCAC). The strongest associations were found for endometrioid carcinoma and IL2RA SNPs rs11256497 [HR, 1.42; 95% confidence interval (CI), 1.22-1.64; P = 5.7 × 10(-6)], rs791587 (HR, 1.36; 95% CI, 1.17-1.57; P = 6.2 × 10(-5)), rs2476491 (HR, = 1.40; 95% CI, 1.19-1.64; P = 5.6 × 10(-5)), and rs10795763 (HR, 1.35; 95% CI, 1.17-1.57; P = 7.9 × 10(-5)), and for clear cell carcinoma and CTLA4 SNP rs231775 (HR, 0.67; 95% CI, 0.54-0.82; P = 9.3 × 10(-5)) after adjustment for age, study site, population stratification, stage, grade, and oral contraceptive use. The rs231775 allele associated with improved survival in our study also results in an amino acid change in CTLA4 and previously has been reported to be associated with autoimmune conditions. Thus, we found evidence that SNPs in genes related to Tregs seem to play a role in ovarian cancer survival, particularly in patients with clear cell and endometrioid epithelial ovarian cancer

Large-Scale Evaluation of Common Variation in Regulatory T Cell–Related Genes and Ovarian Cancer Outcome

The presence of regulatory T cells (Tregs) in solid tumors is known to play a role in patient survival in ovarian cancer and other malignancies. We assessed inherited genetic variations via 749 tag SNPs in 25 Treg-associated genes (CD28, CTLA4, FOXP3, IDO1, IL10, IL10RA, IL15, 1L17RA, IL23A, IL23R, IL2RA, IL6, IL6R, IL8, LGALS1, LGALS9, MAP3K8, STAT5A, STAT5B, TGFB1, TGFB2, TGFB3, TGFBR1, TGRBR2, and TGFBR3) in relation to ovarian cancer survival. We analyzed genotype and overall survival in 10,084 women with invasive epithelial ovarian cancer, including 5,248 high-grade serous, 1,452 endometrioid, 795 clear cell, and 661 mucinous carcinoma cases of European descent across 28 studies from the Ovarian Cancer Association Consortium (OCAC). The strongest associations were found for endometrioid carcinoma and IL2RA SNPs rs11256497 [HR=1.42, 95% CI: 1.22–1.64; p=5.7 × 10(−6)], rs791587 [HR=1.36, 95% CI:1.17–1.57; p=6.2 × 10(−5)], rs2476491 [HR=1.40, 95% CI: 1.191.64; p=5.6 × 10(−5)], and rs10795763 [HR=1.35, 95% CI: 1.17–1.57; p=7.9 × 10(−5)], and for clear cell carcinoma and CTLA4 SNP rs231775 [HR=0.67, 95% CI: 0.54–0.82; p=9.3 × 10(−5)] after adjustment for age, study site, population stratification, stage, grade, and oral contraceptive use. The rs231775 allele associated with improved survival in our study also results in an amino acid change in CTLA4 and previously has been reported to be associated with autoimmune conditions. Thus, we found evidence that SNPs in genes related to Tregs appear to play a role in ovarian cancer survival, particularly in patients with clear cell and endometrioid EOC