The importance of being mature: the effect of demographic maturation on global per-capita GDP

Given that savings behaviour and worker productivity have strong life-cycle components and given that demographic profiles vary across countries, population age structure should be linked to differences in levels of economic development. In this paper we measure the economic importance of age structure variation for the global economy. We find that even after adjusting for country-specific effects, demographic maturation has been associated with nearly half of the evolution of global per-capita GDP since 1960. We also find that age structure differences can account for just over half of the variation in worldwide per capita GDP (i.e. the lack of sigma convergence) observed since 1960. Taken as a whole, these results complement recent theoretical and empirical work on the importance of population size and economic development and reinforce empirical work linking mature demographic age structures with faster cross-country economic growth rates. JEL Classification: J13, J22, J24, O11, O40age structure, cross-country growth, life cycle savings model

On the sustainability of the Spanish public budget performance

In this paper, we address the issue of whether the current fiscal policy in Spain is sustainable. For this purpose we apply traditional empirical tests of fiscal sustainability proposed in the literature and, in addition, we introduce a deeper univariate analysis of the series involved. Our results show that a structural break seems to have taken place gradually in the Spanish budget performance, allowing to verifying the intertemporal borrowing constraint in a «strong sense», which means that no problems in marketing public debt are expected to arise if fiscal variables follow the pattern of the past in the future. Classification-JEL : E60, F41,: Sustainability, cointegration, structural breaks, intertemporal borrowing constraint.

Post-Basel III: time for evaluation

Evento: 14th ASBA-BCBS-FSI High-level Meeting on Global and Regional Supervisory Priorities. Organizado por: Association of Supervisors of Banks of the Americas, the Basel Committee and the Financial Stability Institut

The economic situation in the euro area and the ECB’s monetary policy

Evento: Goldman Sachs virtual event. Organizado por: Goldman SachsThe war in Ukraine is severely affecting the euro area and has notably increased uncertainty. The impact of the war on the economy will depend on how the conflict evolves, on the effect of current sanctions and on possible further measures. Inflation has increased significantly and will remain high over the coming months, mainly because of the sharp rise in energy costs. Looking ahead, the calibration of our monetary policy will depend on the incoming data and our assessment of the macroeconomic outlook. In the current conditions of high uncertainty, we will maintain optionality, gradualism and flexibility in the conduct of monetary policy. We stand ready to take whatever action is needed to fulfil our mandate to maintain price stability and to contribute to safeguarding financial stability

La política monetaria en el área del euro: situación actual

Evento: 15ª reunión anual del International Forum of Sovereign Wealth Funds. Organizado por: COFIDES.La valoración anterior sugiere que los niveles actuales de los tipos de interés oficiales del BCE, mantenidos durante un período suficientemente largo, serían acordes, en líneas generales, con la consecución de nuestro objetivo de inflación del 2 % a medio plazo. La inversión refleja la convicción de los mercados de que la inflación continuará cayendo y que, a medida que la inflación retorne a su objetivo, los tipos también se ajustarán. Con la bajada de los precios energéticos, los Gobiernos deben revertir sus medidas de apoyo a la energía. Las autoridades también deberían emprender reformas estructurales para reforzar la oferta. La política fiscal para 2024 debería ser bastante restrictiva en toda el área del euro, en consonancia con la declaración del Eurogrupo de julio y las proyecciones del BCE de septiembre

Welcome address. Conference 'The New Bank Provisioning Standards: Implementation Challenges and Financial Stability Implications'

Organizado por: Banco de España, FSI and CEMF

International cooperation in a world of digitalisation

Evento: 22nd International Conference of Banking Supervisors. Organizado por: BISCentral banks and supervisory authorities have a critical role in cooperating to reap the benefits from digitalisation while mitigating risks. This year’s ICBS will be an important step in this direction

Retos actuales para la economía y las políticas del área del euro

Organizado por: College of EuropeIncluye versión en inglés: Current challenges in the Euro Area economy and policiesRetos actuales para la economía y las políticas del área del euro. El impacto de la pandemia y de las crisis energéticas sobre el crecimiento potencial. Evolución de la política monetaria en el área del euro. El papel de la política fiscal

Basel III implementation in the European Union: Introductory remarks

Evento: Basel Committee on Banking Supervisio