3 research outputs found
Analysis of Family Building Patterns in Kenya when Fertility has Stalled
The absence of any further fertility decline in Kenya in recent past has alarmed the demographic community. While such phenomenon is not new, it is also possible that the observed fertility as measured by TFR may be due to flaws in the in distortion of TFR from changes in the timing of childbearing. On the other handWhile, there may have been a real reversal in fertility decline that could arise from change in fertility preferences. However, tracing fertility trends by traditional measures (such as TFR) in early stages of demographic transition is speculative and uncertain even if data is of good quality. This study uses birth history data from the 1998 and 2003 KDHS to examine trends in family building patterns. The main conclusion is that fertility rates increased among women in their middle age (25-34) for those in parities 4 and 5 but declined for both younger and older women. From a methodological perspectives, the use of parity progression ratios uncovers patterns that may be difficult with the use of age-specific fertility rates. Parity-specific analysis is consistent with the sequential nature of childbearing and approximates the family-building behaviour of real cohorts
An Event History Analysis of Factors Influencing Entry into Parenthood In Nairobi
In this study, we use data from the Urban Integration Survey conducted
in 2001 in Nairobi, following the standard that has been adapted in
several cities in Africa (Dakar, 1989; Bamako, 1992; Yaounde, 1996 and
Antananarivo, 1998), to examine the underlying factors influencing
entry into parenthood for men and women during the period of economic
crisis. The analysis uses event history methods, specifically the Cox
Proportional Hazards Regression model, stratified by generational age
and run separately by sex. The results show that the majority of the
migrants to Nairobi began childbearing in Nairobi, with migration
status having no effect on entry into parenthood when other factors are
controlled for. What seems important in delaying entry into union is
some form of economic security, while social and economic contexts
appeared weak for both men and women. One intriguing result was that
there is an almost monotonic increase on the likelihood of entry into
motherhood with increase in the level of education
Analysis of Family Building Patterns in Kenya when Fertility has Stalled
The absence of any further fertility decline in Kenya in recent past
has alarmed the demographic community. While such phenomenon is not
new, it is also possible that the observed fertility as measured by TFR
may be due to flaws in the in distortion of TFR from changes in the
timing of childbearing. On the other handWhile, there may have been a
real reversal in fertility decline that could arise from change in
fertility preferences. However, tracing fertility trends by traditional
measures (such as TFR) in early stages of demographic transition is
speculative and uncertain even if data is of good quality. This study
uses birth history data from the 1998 and 2003 KDHS to examine trends
in family building patterns. The main conclusion is that fertility
rates increased among women in their middle age (25-34) for those in
parities 4 and 5 but declined for both younger and older women. From a
methodological perspectives, the use of parity progression ratios
uncovers patterns that may be difficult with the use of age- specific
fertility rates. Parity Parity-specific analysis is consistent with the
sequential nature of childbearing and approximates the family-building
behaviour of real cohorts.L'arrêt du déclin de la fécondité ces
dernières années au Kenya alarme la communauté des
démographes. Bien que ce phénomène ne soit pas nouveau,
il est aussi possible que les tendances de fécondité telle
que mesurée par l'indice conjoncturel de fécondité (ICF)
soit affectées par des distorsions dans le calendrier des
grossesses. Bien qu'il soit possible que le renversement de tendance
soit dû à un changement réel des préférences
en matière de fécondité, repérer les tendances de
la fécondité par des indices classiques (tel que l'ICF) dans
les premiers stades de la transition démographique est un exercice
spéculatif et incertain, même si les données sont de
bonne qualité. La présente étude utilise les histoires
génésiques recueillies par les EDS du Kenya en 1998 et 2003
pour examiner les tendances de formation de la famille. La principale
conclusion est que les taux de fécondité ont augmenté
parmi les femmes d'âge moyen (25-34 ans) qui avaient
déjà 4 ou 5 enfants mais a diminué pour les femmes plus
jeunes et plus âgées. D'un point de vue méthodologique,
l'utilisation des probabilités d'agrandissement de la famille
dévoile des comportements qu'il est difficile d'identifier avec
les taux de fécondité par âge. L'analyse des
probabilités d'agrandissement est cohérente avec la nature
séquentielle des grossesses et approche au mieux le processus de
formation des familles dans chaque génération.
génération