From A to B, statistical modelling of the ecology of ants and badgers

Biological systems involve features/behaviours of individuals and populations that are influenced by a multitude of factors. To explore the dynamics of such systems, a statistical description offers the possibility of testing hypotheses, drawing predictions and more generally, assessing our understanding. In the work presented, I analyse the properties of various biological systems of two very different organisms: Pharaoh‟s ants (Monomorium pharaonis) and badgers (Meles meles). The basis of the work, in the two projects on these biological systems, relies heavily on data collection and explaining observations using quantitative methods such as statistical analysis and simulations. In the first part of this thesis, I describe animal movement in space and time using data collected on the foraging behaviour of ants. A new model is presented which appears to reflect, with a high degree of accuracy, the behaviour of real organisms. This model constitutes the basis of the second chapter in which the qualities of searching strategies are explored in the context of optimal foraging. The final chapter of first part of this thesis concludes with a detailed analysis of the rate of exploration of individuals. As an essential part of foraging, the rate of individuals leaving their nest is analysed using collected data, and contrasted with results derived from a mathematical model. The second part of this thesis focuses on badgers. A first chapter explores the significance of palate maculation that is observed in badgers and relates their symmetry to parasitic infection. I then explore the population dynamics of a population of badgers subject to natural variation in climatic conditions. A first analysis is based on local climatic conditions, while a second analysis focuses on a more general property of climate (i.e. its unpredictability) to infer population dynamics

The contribution of badgers to confirmed tuberculosis in cattle in high-incidence areas in England

The role of badgers in the transmission and maintenance of bovine tuberculosis (TB) in British cattle is widely debated as part of the wider discussions on whether badger culling and/or badger vaccination should play a role in the government’s strategy to eradicate cattle TB. The key source of information on the contribution from badgers within high-cattle-TB-incidence areas of England is the Randomised Badger Culling Trial (RBCT), with two analyses providing estimates of the average overall contribution of badgers to confirmed cattle TB in these areas. A dynamical model characterizing the association between the estimated prevalence of Mycobacterium bovis (the causative agent of bovine TB) among badgers culled in the initial RBCT proactive culls and the incidence among sympatric cattle herds prior to culling is used to estimate the average overall contribution of badgers to confirmed TB herd breakdowns among proactively culled areas. The resulting estimate based on all data (52%) has considerable uncertainty (bootstrap 95% confidence interval (CI): 9.1-100%). Separate analyses of experimental data indicated that the largest estimated reduction in confirmed cattle TB achieved inside the proactive culling areas was 54% (overdispersion-adjusted 95% CI: 38-66%), providing a lower bound for the average overall contribution of badgers to confirmed cattle TB. Thus, taking into account both results, the best estimate of the average overall contribution of badgers is roughly half, with 38% being a robustly estimated lower bound. However, the dynamical model also suggested that only 5.7% (bootstrap 95% CI: 0.9-25%) of the transmission to cattle herds is badger-to-cattle with the remainder of the average overall contribution from badgers being in the form of onward cattle-to-cattle transmission. These estimates, confirming that badgers do play a role in bovine TB transmission, inform debate even if they do not point to a single way forward

Big brother is watching - using digital disease surveillance tools for near real-time forecasting

Abstract for the International Journal of Infectious Diseases 79 (S1) (2019).https://www.ijidonline.com/article/S1201-9712(18)34659-9/abstractPublished versio

Evolution d'un taillis de formation naturelle en zone soudanienne du Burkina Faso

Un dispositif de coupe en taillis a été installé en forêt de Gonsé (25 km de Ouagadougou) en 1985 pour évaluer la dynamique de la végétation après coupe rase à 5, 10, 15 et 20 ans. Le site d'essai a été exploité en coupe rase après inventaire complet des ligneux par essences, circonférences et hauteurs. Les espèces présentes ayant des réactions différentes, ceci amène l'auteur à proposer des aménagements forestiers sélectifs moins destructifs et plus appropriés à une saine gestion des formations naturelles du pays. Outre les conséquences à tirer sur le plan des aménagements à envisager, il est urgent d'initier des recherches pluridisciplinaires sur les relations forêt-pâturage-feu comme réel support de la gestion future des formations naturelles au Burkina Fas