The incidence and clinical burden of respiratory syncytial virus disease identified through hospital outpatient presentations in Kenyan children

There is little information that describe the burden of respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) associated disease in the tropical African outpatient setting. Methods We studied a systematic sample of children aged <5 years presenting to a rural district hospital in Kenya with acute respiratory infection (ARI) between May 2002 and April 2004. We collected clinical data and screened nasal wash samples for RSV antigen by immunofluorescence. We used a linked demographic surveillance system to estimate disease incidence. Results Among 2143 children tested, 166 (8%) were RSV positive (6% among children with upper respiratory tract infection and 12% among children with lower respiratory tract infection (LRTI). RSV was more likely in LRTI than URTI (p<0.001). 51% of RSV cases were aged 1 year or over. RSV cases represented 3.4% of hospital outpatient presentations. Relative to RSV negative cases, RSV positive cases were more likely to have crackles (RR = 1.63; 95% CI 1.34–1.97), nasal flaring (RR = 2.66; 95% CI 1.40–5.04), in-drawing (RR = 2.24; 95% CI 1.47–3.40), fast breathing for age (RR = 1.34; 95% CI 1.03–1.75) and fever (RR = 1.54; 95% CI 1.33–1.80). The estimated incidence of RSV-ARI and RSV-LRTI, per 100,000 child years, among those aged <5 years was 767 and 283, respectively. Conclusion The burden of childhood RSV-associated URTI and LRTI presenting to outpatients in this setting is considerable. The clinical features of cases associated with an RSV infection were more severe than cases without an RSV diagnosis

A cost effectiveness and capacity analysis for the introduction of universal rotavirus vaccination in Kenya : comparison between Rotarix and RotaTeq vaccines

Background Diarrhoea is an important cause of death in the developing world, and rotavirus is the single most important cause of diarrhoea associated mortality. Two vaccines (Rotarix and RotaTeq) are available to prevent rotavirus disease. This analysis was undertaken to aid the decision in Kenya as to which vaccine to choose when introducing rotavirus vaccination. Methods Cost-effectiveness modelling, using national and sentinel surveillance data, and an impact assessment on the cold chain. Results The median estimated incidence of rotavirus disease in Kenya was 3015 outpatient visits, 279 hospitalisations and 65 deaths per 100,000 children under five years of age per year. Cumulated over the first five years of life vaccination was predicted to prevent 34% of the outpatient visits, 31% of the hospitalizations and 42% of the deaths. The estimated prevented costs accumulated over five years totalled US$1,782,761 (direct and indirect costs) with an associated 48,585 DALYs. From a societal perspective Rotarix had a cost-effectiveness ratio of US$142 per DALY (US$5 for the full course of two doses) and RotaTeq US$288 per DALY ($10.5 for the full course of three doses). RotaTeq will have a bigger impact on the cold chain compared to Rotarix. Conclusion Vaccination against rotavirus disease is cost-effective for Kenya irrespective of the vaccine. Of the two vaccines Rotarix was the preferred choice due to a better cost-effectiveness ratio, the presence of a vaccine vial monitor, the requirement of fewer doses and less storage space, and proven thermo-stability

Duration of shedding of respiratory syncytial virus in a community study of Kenyan children

Background: Our understanding of the transmission dynamics of respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) infection will be better informed with improved data on the patterns of shedding in cases not limited only to hospital admissions. Methods: In a household study, children testing RSV positive by direct immunofluorescent antibody test (DFA) were enrolled. Nasal washings were scheduled right away, then every three days until day 14, every 7 days until day 28 and every 2 weeks until a maximum of 16 weeks, or until the first DFA negative RSV specimen. The relationship between host factors, illness severity and viral shedding was investigated using Cox regression methods. Results: From 151 families a total of 193 children were enrolled with a median age of 21 months (range 1-164 months), 10% infants and 46% male. The rate of recovery from infection was 0.22/person/day (95% CI 0.19-0.25) equivalent to a mean duration of shedding of 4.5 days (95%CI 4.0-5.3), with a median duration of shedding of 4 days (IQR 2-6, range 1-14). Children with a history of RSV infection had a 40% increased rate of recovery i.e. shorter duration of viral shedding (hazard ratio 1.4, 95% CI 1.01-1.86). The rate of cessation of shedding did not differ significantly between males and females, by severity of infection or by age. Conclusion: We provide evidence of a relationship between the duration of shedding and history of infection, which may have a bearing on the relative role of primary versus re-infections in RSV transmission in the community

Seroepidemiology of measles in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia: implications for control through vaccination.

We undertook a representative survey of measles antibodies in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia 1994, to characterize immunity and transmission. Specific-antibody levels (IU/l) were determined by ELISA for 4654 sera from individuals aged 0-49 years (1805 < 15 years) collected by stratified household-cluster sampling. The proportion seronegative (< 100 IU/l) was 20% (95% CI: 16-25) in children 9-59 months old, declining to 9% (7-12) in 5-9 year olds, 5% (4-7) in 10-14 year olds, and < 1% in adults. The proportion of children (< 15 years old) with low-level antibody (100-255 IU/l) was 8% (7-10). Vaccination and an absence of a history of measles illness were strongly associated with low-level antibody. History of measles vaccination in 9 months to 14-year-old children was approximately 80%. We estimate a primary vaccine failure rate of 21% (12-34) and continued high measles incidence of 22 per 100 susceptibles (19-24) per annum. Our data support the introduction of campaign vaccination in the city in 1998, although higher routine vaccine coverage is required to sustain the impact. The implications of a high prevalence of low-level antibody are discussed

The natural history of respiratory syncytial virus in a birth cohort: the influence of age and previous infection on reinfection and disease.

This study aimed to quantify the effect of age, time since last infection, and infection history on the rate of respiratory syncytial virus infection and the effect of age and infection history on the risk of respiratory syncytial virus disease. A birth cohort of 635 children in Kilifi, Kenya, was monitored for respiratory syncytial virus infections from January 31, 2002, to April 22, 2005. Predictors of infection were examined by Cox regression and disease risk by binomial regression. A total of 598 respiratory syncytial virus infections were identified (411 primary, 187 repeat), with 409 determined by antigen assay and 189 by antibody alone (using a "most pragmatic" serologic definition). The incidence decreased by 70% following a primary infection (adjusted hazard ratio = 0.30, 95% confidence interval: 0.21, 0.42; P < 0.001) and by 59% following a secondary infection (hazard ratio = 0.41, 95% confidence interval: 0.22, 0.73; P = 0.003), for a period lasting 6 months. Relative to the age group <6 months, all ages exhibited a higher incidence of infection. A lower risk of severe disease following infection was independently associated with increasing age (P < 0.001) but not reinfection. In conclusion, observed respiratory syncytial virus incidence was lowest in the first 6 months of life, immunity to reinfection was partial and short lived, and disease risk was age related

Evaluating vaccination strategies for reducing infant respiratory syncytial virus infection in low-income settings

Background: Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) is a leading cause of lower respiratory tract disease and related hospitalization of young children in least developed countries. Individuals are repeatedly infected, but it is the first exposure, often in early infancy, that results in the vast majority of severe RSV disease. Unfortunately, due to immunological immaturity, infants are a problematic RSV vaccine target. Several trials are ongoing to identify a suitable candidate vaccine and target group, but no immunization program is yet in place. Methods: In this work, an individual-based model that explicitly accounts for the socio-demographic population structure is developed to investigate RSV transmission patterns in a rural setting of Kenya and to evaluate the potential effectiveness of alternative population targets in reducing RSV infant infection. Results: We find that household transmission is responsible for 39% of infant infections and that school-age children are the main source of infection within the household, causing around 55% of cases. Moreover, assuming a vaccine-induced protection equivalent to that of natural infection, our results show that annual vaccination of students is the only alternative strategy to routine immunization of infants able to trigger a relevant and persistent reduction of infant infection (on average, of 35.6% versus 41.5% in 10 years of vaccination). Interestingly, if vaccination of pregnant women boosts maternal antibody protection in infants by an additional 4 months, RSV infant infection will be reduced by 31.5%. Conclusions: These preliminary evaluations support the efforts to develop vaccines and related strategies that go beyond targeting vaccines to those at highest risk of severe disease

Evaluating the performance of tools used to call minority variants from whole genome short-read data.

Background: High-throughput whole genome sequencing facilitates investigation of minority virus sub-populations from virus positive samples. Minority variants are useful in understanding within and between host diversity, population dynamics and can potentially assist in elucidating person-person transmission pathways. Several minority variant callers have been developed to describe low frequency sub-populations from whole genome sequence data. These callers differ based on bioinformatics and statistical methods used to discriminate sequencing errors from low-frequency variants. Methods: We evaluated the diagnostic performance and concordance between published minority variant callers used in identifying minority variants from whole-genome sequence data from virus samples. We used the ART-Illumina read simulation tool to generate three artificial short-read datasets of varying coverage and error profiles from an RSV reference genome. The datasets were spiked with nucleotide variants at predetermined positions and frequencies. Variants were called using FreeBayes, LoFreq, Vardict, and VarScan2. The variant callers' agreement in identifying known variants was quantified using two measures; concordance accuracy and the inter-caller concordance. Results: The variant callers reported differences in identifying minority variants from the datasets. Concordance accuracy and inter-caller concordance were positively correlated with sample coverage. FreeBayes identified the majority of variants although it was characterised by variable sensitivity and precision in addition to a high false positive rate relative to the other minority variant callers and which varied with sample coverage. LoFreq was the most conservative caller. Conclusions: We conducted a performance and concordance evaluation of four minority variant calling tools used to identify and quantify low frequency variants. Inconsistency in the quality of sequenced samples impacts on sensitivity and accuracy of minority variant callers. Our study suggests that combining at least three tools when identifying minority variants is useful in filtering errors when calling low frequency variants

Has oral fluid the potential to replace serum for the evaluation of population immunity levels? A study of measles, rubella and hepatitis B in rural Ethiopia.

OBJECTIVE: To assess the suitability of using oral-fluid samples for determining the prevalence of immunity to vaccine-preventable infections. METHODS: Paired blood and oral-fluid samples were obtained from 853 individuals of all ages from a rural Ethiopian community. Oral fluid around the gums was screened for measles- and rubella-specific antibodies using enhanced IgG antibody capture (GAC) enzyme-linked immunosorbent assays (ELISAs), and for anti-HBc antibodies using a prototype GACELISA. IgG antibodies in serum to measles, rubella and HBc were determined using commercial ELISAs. FINDINGS: Relative to serum, oral fluid assay sensitivity and specificity were as follows: 98% and 87% for measles, 79% and 90% for rubella, and 43% and 87% for anti-HBc. These assay characteristics yielded population prevalence estimates from oral fluid with a precision equal to that of serum for measles (all ages) and rubella (ages < 20 years). CONCLUSION: Our results suggest that oral fluid could have the potential to replace serum in IgG antibody prevalence surveys. Further progress requires assessment of variation in assay performance between populations as well as the availability of standardized, easy to use assays

Influence of age, severity of infection, and co-infection on the duration of respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) shedding.

RSV is the most important viral cause of pneumonia and bronchiolitis in children worldwide and has been associated with significant disease burden. With the renewed interest in RSV vaccines, we provide realistic estimates on duration, and influencing factors on RSV shedding which are required to better understand the impact of vaccination on the virus transmission dynamics. The data arise from a prospective study of 47 households (493 individuals) in rural Kenya, followed through a 6-month period of an RSV seasonal outbreak. Deep nasopharyngeal swabs were collected twice each week from all household members, irrespective of symptoms, and tested for RSV by multiplex PCR. The RSV G gene was sequenced. A total of 205 RSV infection episodes were detected in 179 individuals from 40 different households. The infection data were interval censored and assuming a random event time between observations, the average duration of virus shedding was 11·2 (95% confidence interval 10·1-12·3) days. The shedding durations were longer than previous estimates (3·9-7·4 days) based on immunofluorescence antigen detection or viral culture, and were shown to be strongly associated with age, severity of infection, and revealed potential interaction with other respiratory viruses. These findings are key to our understanding of the spread of this important virus and are relevant in the design of control programmes