Social influences, peer delinquency, and low self-control: An examination of time-varying and reciprocal effects on delinquency over adolescence

We examine an integrated dynamic model of social influences and internal controls on delinquency in adolescence. We assessed to what extent parental bonds, peer delinquency, and self-control were reciprocally related to delinquency throughout adolescence, and whether their effects were time varying. We applied cross-lagged panel models to analyze these relationships using three waves of data from a sample of Swiss youth at ages 13 to 17. Results suggest that self-control is a strong predictor for future delinquent behavior. Moreover, social influences affect self-control into adolescence, contributing to a growing area of research on the dynamic properties of self-control over the life course. Social influences, in particular peer delinquency, are also reciprocally related to delinquency, implying that delinquency can lead to cumulative disadvantages that further entrench individuals in antisocial pathways over the life course.</jats:p

Beyond crime statistics: the construction and application of a criminogenity monitor in Amsterdam

Criminologists have devoted a great deal of attention to risk factors - also called criminogenic factors - leading to criminal offending. This paper presents a criminogenity monitor which includes 19 risk factors that underlie crime. These factors do not themselves cause criminal behaviour; rather, they must be seen as signals that crimes may be committed. After discussing how the criminogenity monitor was constructed, we apply the risk factors we examined to the situation in Amsterdam, capital city of the Netherlands. The monitor is intended to function particularly as an instrument to rationalise policy-makers' work in targeting and preventing symptoms of crime at three geographical levels: the entire city, its boroughs and its neighbourhoods. © 2012 The Author(s)

Daily Deviations in Anger, Guilt, and Sympathy: A Developmental Diary Study of Aggression

With a diary study of 4- and 8-year-olds, we tested the association between daily deviations in anger and aggressive behavior, and whether this link was moderated by feelings of guilt and sympathy. Caregivers reported their children’s anger and aggression for 10 consecutive days (470 records; N = 80, 53 % girls). To calculate daily anger deviations from average anger levels, we subtracted each child’s average anger score (i.e., across 10 days) from his/her daily anger scores. Children reported their guilty feelings in response to vignettes depicting intentional harm, as well as their dispositional sympathy levels. Multilevel modeling indicated that within-child spikes in daily anger were associated with more aggression, above and beyond between-child differences in average anger levels. However, this association was weaker for children who reported higher levels of guilt. Sympathy did not moderate the anger-aggression link. We discuss potential implications for affective-developmental models of aggression and interventions that target anger-related aggressio

A global analysis of the impact of COVID-19 stay at home restrictions on crime

Abstract: The stay at home restrictions to control the spread of COVID-19 led to unparalleled sudden change in daily life, but it is unclear how they affected urban crime globally. We collected data on daily counts of crime in 26 cities across 22 countries in the Americas, Europe, the Middle East and Asia. We conducted interrupted time series analyses to assess the impact of stay at home restrictions on different types of crime in each city. Our findings show that the stay at home policies were associated with a considerable drop in urban crime, but with substantial variation across cities and types of crime. Meta-regression results showed that more stringent restrictions over movement in public space were predictive of larger declines in crime

A global analysis of the impact of COVID-19 stay at home restrictions on crime

Abstract: The stay at home restrictions to control the spread of COVID-19 led to unparalleled sudden change in daily life, but it is unclear how they affected urban crime globally. We collected data on daily counts of crime in 26 cities across 22 countries in the Americas, Europe, the Middle East and Asia. We conducted interrupted time series analyses to assess the impact of stay at home restrictions on different types of crime in each city. Our findings show that the stay at home policies were associated with a considerable drop in urban crime, but with substantial variation across cities and types of crime. Meta-regression results showed that more stringent restrictions over movement in public space were predictive of larger declines in crime

The heterogeneous effects of COVID-19 lockdowns on crime across the world

Acknowledgements: Thanks to two anonymous reviewers and to the Reading Sessions in Quantitative Criminology (RESQUANT) group of the University of Manchester for their comments.AbstractThere is a vast literature evaluating the empirical association between stay-at-home policies and crime during the COVID-19 pandemic. However, these academic efforts have primarily focused on the effects within specific cities or regions rather than adopting a cross-national comparative approach. Moreover, this body of literature not only generally lacks causal estimates but also has overlooked possible heterogeneities across different levels of stringency in mobility restrictions. This paper exploits the spatial and temporal variation of government responses to the pandemic in 45 cities across five continents to identify the causal impact of strict lockdown policies on the number of offenses reported to local police. We find that cities that implemented strict lockdowns experienced larger declines in some crime types (robbery, burglary, vehicle theft) but not others (assault, theft, homicide). This decline in crime rates attributed to more stringent policy responses represents only a small proportion of the effects documented in the literature.</jats:p

The heterogeneous effects of COVID-19 lockdowns on crime across the world

Acknowledgements: Thanks to two anonymous reviewers and to the Reading Sessions in Quantitative Criminology (RESQUANT) group of the University of Manchester for their comments.AbstractThere is a vast literature evaluating the empirical association between stay-at-home policies and crime during the COVID-19 pandemic. However, these academic efforts have primarily focused on the effects within specific cities or regions rather than adopting a cross-national comparative approach. Moreover, this body of literature not only generally lacks causal estimates but also has overlooked possible heterogeneities across different levels of stringency in mobility restrictions. This paper exploits the spatial and temporal variation of government responses to the pandemic in 45 cities across five continents to identify the causal impact of strict lockdown policies on the number of offenses reported to local police. We find that cities that implemented strict lockdowns experienced larger declines in some crime types (robbery, burglary, vehicle theft) but not others (assault, theft, homicide). This decline in crime rates attributed to more stringent policy responses represents only a small proportion of the effects documented in the literature.</jats:p