Additional file 1 of Detection of antibiotic resistance is essential for gonorrhoea point-of-care testing: a mathematical modelling study

Full model description, model equations, figure depicting model, figure showing fraction of simulations in which gonorrhoea was eradicated, figures showing sensitivity analyses. (PDF 488 kb

Spread of antibiotic resistance in the transmission model.

<p>Ranges indicating 50% of all simulations are shown in dark color, and ranges indicating 95% of all simulations are shown in light color. The continuous lines describe the median proportion of antibiotic-resistant <i>N. gonorrhoeae</i> for all simulations. The black dotted line indicates the 5% threshold.</p

Prevalence and incidence ranges used for model calibration.

<p>Prevalence and incidence ranges used for model calibration.</p

Prior and posterior distributions of the parameters.

<p>Prior distributions (yellow) are shown together with posterior distributions for HMW (blue) and MSM (green) for (a) the sexual mixing coefficient, <i>ϵ</i>, (b) the fraction of diagnosed and treated infections, <i>ϕ</i>, (c) the average duration of infection, <i>D</i>, (d) the transmission probability within the low activity group, <i>β</i>_<i>LL</i>, and (e) the transmission probability within the high activity group, <i>β</i>_<i>HH</i>.</p

Prior distributions and posterior estimates of model parameters.

<p>Prior distributions and posterior estimates of model parameters.</p

Composite model parameters.

<p>Composite model parameters.</p

Distribution of treatment rates in HMW and MSM.

<p>Treatment rates closely approximate the rates of resistance spread. The median treatment rate was 0.88 y⁻¹ in HMW and 3.12 y⁻¹ in MSM.</p

Additional file 1: of Time-kill curve analysis and pharmacodynamic modelling for in vitro evaluation of antimicrobials against Neisseria gonorrhoeae

Figure S1. Growth curves for five WHO reference strains. WHO G (A), WHO K (B), WHO L (C), WHO M (D), WHO N (E). Data from three independent experiments are shown. CFU/ml for each time-point are shown in circles (experiment 1), triangles (experiment 2) and diamonds (experiment 3). A Gompertz growth model was fit to the data from three independent experiments (solid lane, pooled data). Individual fits from each of the experiments are shown as well in dashed lines. Growth rates were estimated in log phase between 2 and 20 h (WHO G = 0.75 [h-1], WHO K = 0.72 [h-1], WHO L = 0.57 [h-1], WHO M = 0.75 [h-1], WHO N = 0.70 [h-1]). The maximal bacterial density was estimated as upper asymptote of the Gompertz model (WHO G = 9.74*109 [CFU/ml], WHO K = 1.32*109 [CFU/ml], WHO L = 6.57*107 [CFU/ml], WHO M = 1.32*109 [CFU/ml], WHO N = 5.32*1011 [CFU/ml]). Table S1. Parameter estimates from nine different antimicrobials in DG666 and model based standard errors. Table S2. Parameter estimates from ciprofloxacin in five WHO reference strains and model based standard errors. (PDF 489 kb

Scatterplots of <i>R</i>₀ and socio-demographic exposure variables.

<p><b>A</b>. Association between <i>R</i>₀ and log-transformed population density (p/km²). <b>B</b>. Association between <i>R</i>₀ and household density (p/room). <b>C</b>. Association between <i>R</i>₀ and DHS wealth index score. <b>D</b>. Association between <i>R</i>₀ and time to water source (mins). The white line denotes the linear fit, the grey shaded area denotes the 95% CI. DHS = Demographic and Health Survey, p = persons.</p

Natural log-transformed cumulative EVD case numbers by district and country.

<p><b>A</b>. Guinea. <b>B</b>. Liberia. <b>C</b>. Sierra Leone. The red dots indicate the data points included in the mixed effects model.</p