Demand Uncertainty: Exporting Delays and Exporting Failures

This paper presents a model of trade that explains why firms wait to export and why many exporters fail. Firms face uncertain demands that are only realized after the firm enters the destination. The model retools the timing of uncertainty resolution found in productivity heterogeneity models. This retooling addresses several shortcomings. First, the imperfect correlation of demands reconciles the sales variation observed in and across destinations. Second, since demands for the firm's output are correlated across destinations, a firm can use previously realized demands to forecast unknown demands in untested destinations. The option to forecast demands causes firms to delay exporting in order to gather more information about foreign demand. Third, since uncertainty is resolved after entry, many firms enter a destination and then exit after learning that they cannot profit. This prediction reconciles the high rate of exit seen in the first years of exporting. Finally, when faced with multiple countries in which to export, some firms will choose to sequentially export in order to slowly learn more about its chances for success in untested markets.firm heterogeneity; exporting; trade failures; trade delay

Hidden Markov Model Identifiability via Tensors

The prevalence of hidden Markov models (HMMs) in various applications of statistical signal processing and communications is a testament to the power and flexibility of the model. In this paper, we link the identifiability problem with tensor decomposition, in particular, the Canonical Polyadic decomposition. Using recent results in deriving uniqueness conditions for tensor decomposition, we are able to provide a necessary and sufficient condition for the identification of the parameters of discrete time finite alphabet HMMs. This result resolves a long standing open problem regarding the derivation of a necessary and sufficient condition for uniquely identifying an HMM. We then further extend recent preliminary work on the identification of HMMs with multiple observers by deriving necessary and sufficient conditions for identifiability in this setting.Comment: Accepted to ISIT 2013. 5 pages, no figure

The Desire for (Danish) Quality in High and Low Income Countries

We estimate the correlation between firm prices and sales within a CN8 product-country-year market. We do this for every market to which at least 16 different Danish firms exported between 1999 and 2006. Approximately 60% of Danish exports are to markets in which the price is negatively correlated with sales. These correlations are significantly different across destination countries within product categories, but across years for a given product-destination pair. While some existing theories perform better than others at predicting these patterns, none can reconcile the variation across countries. To fully explain the patterns, We introduce a model in which the price-sales correlation can be interpreted as the market's desire for high quality goods over low cost substitutes. We discover an inverted U shaped relation between a country's desire for quality and its per capita GDP, which we term a Quality Kuznets Curve. This curve has a turning point around 10 000 Euros for Danish exports. The Quality Kuznets Curve appears both when looking across products and within products.exports; firm heterogeneity; quality; productivity; Kuznets

A Distinct Mechanism to Achieve Efficient Signal Recognition Particle (SRP)-SRP Receptor Interaction by the Chloroplast SRP Pathway

Cotranslational protein targeting by the signal recognition particle (SRP) requires the SRP RNA, which accelerates the interaction between the SRP and SRP receptor 200-fold. This otherwise universally conserved SRP RNA is missing in the chloroplast SRP (cpSRP) pathway. Instead, the cpSRP and cpSRP receptor (cpFtsY) by themselves can interact 200-fold faster than their bacterial homologues. Here, cross-complementation analyses revealed the molecular origin underlying their efficient interaction. We found that cpFtsY is 5- to 10-fold more efficient than Escherichia coli FtsY at interacting with the GTPase domain of SRP from both chloroplast and bacteria, suggesting that cpFtsY is preorganized into a conformation more conducive to complex formation. Furthermore, the cargo-binding M-domain of cpSRP provides an additional 100-fold acceleration for the interaction between the chloroplast GTPases, functionally mimicking the effect of the SRP RNA in the cotranslational targeting pathway. The stimulatory effect of the SRP RNA or the M-domain of cpSRP is specific to the homologous SRP receptor in each pathway. These results strongly suggest that the M-domain of SRP actively communicates with the SRP and SR GTPases and that the cytosolic and chloroplast SRP pathways have evolved distinct molecular mechanisms (RNA vs. protein) to mediate this communication

The role of dwelling type when estimating the effect of magnetic fields on childhood leukemia in the California Power Line Study (CAPS).

PurposeThe type of dwelling where a child lives is an important factor when considering residential exposure to environmental agents. In this paper, we explore its role when estimating the potential effects of magnetic fields (MF) on leukemia using data from the California Power Line Study (CAPS). In this context, dwelling type could be a risk factor, a proxy for other risk factors, a cause of MF exposure, a confounder, an effect-measure modifier, or some combination.MethodsWe obtained information on type of dwelling at birth on over 2,000 subjects. Using multivariable-adjusted logistic regression, we assessed whether dwelling type was a risk factor for childhood leukemia, which covariates and MF exposures were associated with dwelling type, and whether dwelling type was a potential confounder or an effect-measure modifier in the MF-leukemia relationship under the assumption of no-uncontrolled confounding.ResultsA majority of children lived in single-family homes or duplexes (70%). Dwelling type was associated with race/ethnicity and socioeconomic status but not with childhood leukemia risk, after other adjustments, and did not alter the MF-leukemia relationship upon adjustment as a potential confounder. Stratification revealed potential effect-measure modification by dwelling type on the multiplicative scale.ConclusionDwelling type does not appear to play a significant role in the MF-leukemia relationship in the CAPS dataset as a leukemia risk factor or confounder. Future research should explore the role of dwelling as an effect-measure modifier of the MF-leukemia association

Cost Linkages Transmit Volatility Across Markets

We present and test a model relating a firm's idiosyncratic cost, its exporting status, and the volatilities of its domestic and export sales. In prior models of trade, supply costs for domestic and exports were linear and thus additively separable. We introduce a nonlinear cost function in order to link the domestic and export supply costs. This theoretical contribution has two new implications for the exporting firm. First, the demand volatility in the foreign market now directly affects the firm's domestic sales volatility. Second, firms hedge domestic demand volatility with exports. The model has several testable predictions. First, larger firms have lower total and domestic sales volatilities. Second, foreign market volatility increases domestic sales volatilities for exporters. Third, exporters allocate output across both markets in order to reduce total sales volatility. We find evidence for these predictions with Danish firms operating between 1992 and 2006.

Concerted Complex Assembly and GTPase Activation in the Chloroplast Signal Recognition Particle

The universally conserved signal recognition particle (SRP) and SRP receptor (SR) mediate the cotranslational targeting of proteins to cellular membranes. In contrast, a unique chloroplast SRP in green plants is primarily dedicated to the post-translational targeting of light harvesting chlorophyll a/b binding (LHC) proteins. In both pathways, dimerization and activation between the SRP and SR GTPases mediate the delivery of cargo; whether and how the GTPase cycle in each system adapts to its distinct substrate proteins were unclear. Here, we show that interactions at the active site essential for GTPase activation in the chloroplast SRP and SR play key roles in the assembly of the GTPase complex. In contrast to their cytosolic homologues, GTPase activation in the chloroplast SRP–SR complex contributes marginally to the targeting of LHC proteins. These results demonstrate that complex assembly and GTPase activation are highly coupled in the chloroplast SRP and SR and suggest that the chloroplast GTPases may forego the GTPase activation step as a key regulatory point. These features may reflect adaptations of the chloroplast SRP to the delivery of their unique substrate protein