The impact of monetary incentives on general fertility rates in Western Australia

Background: There has been widespread international concern about declining fertility rates and the long-term negative consequences particularly for industrialised countries with ageing populations. In an attempt to boost fertility rates, the Australian Government introduced a maternity payment known as the Baby Bonus. However, major concerns have been raised that such monetary incentives would attract teenagers and socially disadvantaged groups. Methods: Population-level data and generalised linear models were used to examine general fertility rates between 1995 and 2006 by socioeconomic group, maternal age group, Aboriginality and location in Western Australia prior to and following the introduction of the Baby Bonus in July 2004.Results: After a steady decline in general fertility rates between 1995 and 2004, rates increased significantly from 52.2 births per 1000 women, aged between 15 and 49 years, in 2004 to 58.6 births per 1000 women in 2006. While there was an overall increase in general fertility rates after adjusting for maternal socio-demographic characteristics, there were no significant differences among maternal age groups (p=0.98), between Aboriginal and non-Aboriginal women(p=0.80), maternal residential locations (p=0.98) or socioeconomic groups (p=0.68). The greatest increase in births were among women residing in the highest socioeconomic areas who had the lowest general fertility rate in 2004 (21.5 births per 1000 women) but the highest in 2006 (38.1 births per 1000 women). Conclusions: Findings suggest that for countries with similar social, economic and political climates to Australia, a monetary incentive may provide a satisfactory solution to declining general fertility rates

Evaluation of simplified acute physiology score 3 performance: a systematic review of external validation studies

Introduction: Simplified Acute Physiology Score 3 (SAPS 3) was the first critical care prognostic model developed from worldwide data. We aimed to systematically review studies that assessed the prognostic performance of SAPS 3 general and customized models for predicting hospital mortality in adult patients admitted to the ICU. Methods: Medline, Lilacs, Scielo and Google Scholar were searched to identify studies which assessed calibration and discrimination of general and customized SAPS 3 equations. Additionally, we decided to evaluate the correlation between trial size (number of included patients) and the Hosmer-Lemeshow (H-L) statistics value of the SAPS 3 models. Results: A total of 28 studies were included. Of these, 11 studies (42.8\%) did not find statistically significant mis-calibration for the SAPS 3 general equation. There was a positive correlation between number of included patients and higher H-L statistics, that is, a statistically significant mis-calibration of the model (r = 0.747, P < 0.001). Customized equations for major geographic regions did not have statistically significant departures from perfect calibration in 9 of 19 studies. Five studies (17.9\%) developed a regional customization and in all of them this new model was not statistically different from a perfect calibration for their populations. Discrimination was at least very good in 24 studies (85.7\%). Conclusions: Statistically significant departure from perfect calibration for the SAPS 3 general equation was common in validation studies and was correlated with larger studies, as should be expected, since H-L statistics (both C and H) are strongly dependent on sample size This finding was also present when major geographic customized equations were evaluated. Local customizations, on the other hand, improved SAPS 3 calibration. Discrimination was almost always very good or excellent, which gives excellent perspectives for local customization when a precise local estimate is needed.publishersversionpublishe

Excited states in the twisted XXZ spin chain

We compute the finite size spectrum for the spin 1/2 XXZ chain with twisted boundary conditions, for anisotropy in the regime $0< \gamma <\pi/2$, and arbitrary twist $\theta$. The string hypothesis is employed for treating complex excitations. The Bethe Ansatz equtions are solved within a coupled non-linear integral equation approach, with one equation for each type of string. The root-of-unity quantum group invariant periodic chain reduces to the XXZ_1/2 chain with a set of twist boundary conditions ($\pi/\gamma\in Z$, $\theta$ an integer multiple of $\gamma$). For this model, the restricted Hilbert space corresponds to an unitary conformal field theory, and we recover all primary states in the Kac table in terms of states with specific twist and strings.Comment: 16 pages, Latex; added discussion on quantum group invariance and arbitrary magnon numbe