Private investment in Mexico : an empirical analysis

In 1985, Mexico shifted to a growth strategy based on private investment and exports rather than on import substitution and public sector investment. The policy implications of this study, are that to increase investment, Mexico should follow policies aimed at reducing investment adjustment costs and increasing factor mobility and credibility in the program of structural reforms, rather than at subsidizing investment.Economic Stabilization,International Terrorism&Counterterrorism,Economic Theory&Research,Environmental Economics&Policies,Macroeconomic Management

Pensions and Saving: New International Panel Data Evidence.

This paper contributes to the empirical literature on pensions and saving by studying the influence of funded pension systems on the gross national saving rate using a sample of 48 developed and developing countries over the 1980-2004 period. To the best of our knowledge, this updated database –which builds on the one assembled by Lopez Murphy and Musalem (2004)- is the largest on pension funds stocks and flows. Our panel data econometric results suggest that a one-dollar increase in pension saving increases national saving by between 0 and 20 cents. The structure of the system in terms of mandatory participation and portfolio composition does not affect the results, but the maturity of the system does seem to be a robust driver of national saving, inducing an increase of the saving rate of 0.3-0.5 percentage points for each additional year of existence. Reforming countries does not seem to have attained higher saving rates than others. Concerning other saving drivers, the old age dependency ratio and the urbanization ratio (even though the latter loses significance in some regressions) were negatively correlated with saving, while GDP growth, inflation, the terms of trade, and the current account displayed a positive sign. In terms of saving projections, the rather declining trend in pension saving implies that this is unlikely to boost the national saving rate, but the rising old age dependency ratio might cause, over a 25-year time horizon, a fall in the saving rate of 2.1 and 3.3 percentage points in OECD and non-OECD countries, respectively.

Pension funds and national saving

The authors conduct an empirical study on the effect of the accumulation of pension fund financial assets, on national saving, using a panel of 43 industrial, and developing countries. The authors find evidence suggesting that the accumulation of pension fund financial assets might increase national saving, when these funds are the result of a mandatory pension program. By contrast, national saving might be unaffected, when pension funds are the result of a public program, implemented to foster voluntary pension saving.Environmental Economics&Policies,Banks&Banking Reform,Payment Systems&Infrastructure,Economic Theory&Research,Contractual Savings,Environmental Economics&Policies,Economic Investment&Savings,Banks&Banking Reform,Economic Theory&Research,Contractual Savings

Contractual savings or stock market development - Which leads?

The authors study the relationship between the development of contractual savings (assets of pension funds, and life insurance companies) and non-life insurance, and, the development of stock markets (market capitalization and value traded). Their contribution lies in providing time-series evidence on a hypothesis that is very popular - but had not been substantiated - among supporters of fully funded pension systems in which funds invest large shares of their portfolios in tradable securities (equities, bonds). The literature is not clear on its assumption regarding causality between contractual savings, and capital market development. A one-way or two-way relationship is assumed, usually inter-changeably; the authors address the questions of which leads empirically. They present the evidence, including descriptive statistics, and the results of Granger causality tests, for OECD countries, and such countries as Chile, Malaysia, Singapore, South Africa, and Thailand. They do not present a theoretical framework, but do explain how the growth of the contractual savings sector, is thought to promote financial development. The authors find evidence in the data that causality between institutions, and markets either does not exist, or, if it exists, runs predominantly from institutions to markets. To a lesser extent, there is simultaneous causality between institutions, and markets. Furthermore, there is limited evidence that causality runsonly from markets to institutions (the only exception seems to be for non-life insurance in developing countries). Results seem to support the idea that the development of institutional investors, is likely to promote the growth of market capitalization, more than that of value traded. In developing countries, there seems to be no causality from pension funds to growth in value traded, while there is causality from life, and non-life insurance.International Terrorism&Counterterrorism,Economic Theory&Research,Banks&Banking Reform,Payment Systems&Infrastructure,Financial Intermediation,Financial Intermediation,Contractual Savings,Insurance Law,Economic Theory&Research,Banks&Banking Reform

The impact of contractual savings institutions on securities markets

The authors assess empirically the impact of contractual savings institutions portfolios (pension funds and life insurance companies) on securities markets, for example, depth and liquidity in the domestic stock market, and depth in the domestic bond market. They discuss how the institutionalization of savings can modify financial markets through the lengthening of securities'maturities. The results are the following: 1) An increase in assets of contractual savings institutions relative to domestic financial assets has a positive impact on the depth of stock and bond markets on average. 2) The impact on stock market depth and liquidity is nonlinear: it is stronger in countries where corporate information is more transparent. 3) There is evidence of a significant heterogeneity among countries: contractual savings have a stronger impact on securities markets in countries where the financial system is market based, pension fund contributions are mandatory, and international transactions in securities are lower. 4) The authors do not find that the impact of contractual savings institutions on securities markets is explained by the overall level of development, education, demographic structure or the legal environment.Economic Theory&Research,Insurance&Risk Mitigation,Banks&Banking Reform,Payment Systems&Infrastructure,Insurance Law,Insurance&Risk Mitigation,Banks&Banking Reform,Financial Intermediation,Economic Theory&Research,Insurance Law

Contractual savings institutions and banks'stability and efficiency

The authors analyze the relationship between the development of contractual savings institutions and banks'efficiency, credit, and liquidity risks. They discuss the potential mechanisms through which the development of contractual savings institutions may affect the banking sector. They show that the development of contractual savings institutions has a significant impact on bank spreads and loan maturity. After controlling for banks'characteristics, macroeconomic factors, and more standard indicators of financial development, they show that the development of contractual savings institutions is associated with increased efficiency of the banking system and greater resilience to credit and liquidity risks.Payment Systems&Infrastructure,Banks&Banking Reform,Economic Theory&Research,Financial Intermediation,Insurance&Risk Mitigation,Contractual Savings,Banks&Banking Reform,Financial Intermediation,Economic Theory&Research,Insurance&Risk Mitigation

Contractual savings in countries with a small financial sector

Countries with small financial systems are generally small economies with a reduced dimension of institutional relationships, a greater concentration of wealth, and a relatively less independent civil service. These characteristics facilitate concentration of functions and, more generally, weak governance. Only small economies with a relatively high level of per capita income, minimum core of sound banks and insurance companies, sound and credible macroeconomic policies, and open capital accounts can benefit from the development of contractual savings. This can increase the options to obtain sound coverage against contingencies, increase the supply of long term savings, promote financial deepening, and improve financial risk management.Payment Systems&Infrastructure,Environmental Economics&Policies,Banks&Banking Reform,Economic Theory&Research,Insurance&Risk Mitigation,Economic Theory&Research,Banks&Banking Reform,Insurance&Risk Mitigation,Environmental Economics&Policies,Insurance Law

Contractual savings, capital markets, and firms'financing choices

The authors analyze the relationship between the development and asset allocation of contractual savings and firms'capital structures. The authors develop a simple model of firms'leverage and debt maturity decisions. They illustrate the mechanisms through which contractual savings development may affect corporate financing patterns. In the empirical section, the authors show that the development and asset allocation of contractual savings have an independent impact on firms'financing choices. Different channels are identified. In market-based economies, an increase in the proportion of shares in the portfolio of contractual savings leads to a decline in firms'leverage. In bank-based economies, instead, an increase in the size of contractual savings is associated with an increase in leverage and debt maturity in the corporate sectorBanks&Banking Reform,Payment Systems&Infrastructure,International Terrorism&Counterterrorism,Economic Theory&Research,Financial Intermediation,Banks&Banking Reform,Economic Theory&Research,Financial Intermediation,Environmental Economics&Policies,International Terrorism&Counterterrorism