Observations and Potential Impacts of Regional Jet Operating Trends

Airlines are increasingly using regional jets to better match aircraft size to high value demand markets, and reduce labor costs. This has been especially important due to the increased pressure on the industry following September 11th 2001, because airlines see regional jets as a major part of their financial recovery plan. The increase in regional jets represents a significant change from traditional air traffic patterns and airline business models. To investigate the possible impacts of this change, this study analyzed the economic characteristics of regional jets, and well as the emerging flight patterns and performance of regional jets compared to traditional jets and turboprops. It was found that regional airlines have lower crew costs per number of block hours and take offs, but higher crew cost per ASMs and RPMs. As a result, the revenues at regional airlines are more susceptible to changes in crew cost. It was also observed that regional jets operate differently then traditional jets. Regional jets increase the number of operations at airports and in the take off tracks around airports, which may result in increased congestion. Regional jets were also observed to exhibit lower climb rates than traditional jets, which may negatively impact air traffic control handling and sector design. Given the possible economic and operational problems associated with regional jets, their growth may pose unanticipated problems

Crisis Events as a Catalyst for Change in the US Air Transportation

Historically, aircraft accidents have preceded the implementation of many changes in the US Air Transportation System. These accidents act as catalytic events which generate awareness of a problem and pressure for change to occur. Specifically, aircraft accidents indicate the presence of safety problems. As past safety problems were addressed the frequency of accidents decreased causing new drivers for system change to emerge. Current drivers for change in the US Air Transportation System include increases in demand in the face of limited capacity, emerging requirements such as the need to address growing environmental concerns, and the need to replace and update aging system components. This paper explores the role of catalytic events in bringing change to the US Air Transportation System with a focus on the implications for capacity driven change. In order to address capacity constraints, infrastructure improvements, such as construction of new runways, or efficiency improvements, which would allow aircraft to be spaced closer together, can be made. However, changing the system in response to capacity can be difficult due to barriers posed by stakeholder conflicts and complex decision making and approval processes. The capacity problem, the need to address it, as well as the barriers to addressing it are presented in this paper. Finally, the paper explores the role of delays as catalytic capacity events and the likely actions following such an event.This work was supported by the FAA under the Joint University Program (JUP) [FAA95-G-017] and the National Center of Excellence for Aviation Operations Research (NEXTOR) [DTFA01-C-00030]

Evaluation of Regional Jet Operating Patterns in

Airlines are increasingly using regional jets to better match aircraft size to high value, but limited demand markets. The increase in regional jet usage represents a significant change from traditional air traffic patterns. To investigate the possible impacts of this change on the air traffic management and control systems, this study analyzed the emerging flight patterns and performance of regional jets compared to traditional jets and turboprops. This study used ASDI data, which consists of actual flight track data, to analyze flights between January 1998 and January 2003. In addition, a study of regional jet economics, using Form 41 data, was conducted in order to better understand the observed patterns. It was found that in 1998 US regional jet patterns and utilization closely resembled those of the turboprops. Both aircraft were used for hub feeder operations. They flew relatively short distances, under 500 nautical miles, and exhibited similar cruise altitudes and speeds. These patterns began to change as the number of regional jets increased. By January 2003, the regional jets were no longer used solely for hub feeder operations, but were flying longer routes at higher altitudes and faster speeds than turboprops. As a result, regional jets have come to fill a gap in the market by flying on longer routes than the turboprops, but shorter than the narrow body jets. An economic analysis was conducted in order to better understand the observed regional jet patterns. It was found that regional jets have lower operating costs per trip and higher operating costs per ASM than traditional jets. As a result, regional jets are currently a lower cost alternative for traditional airlines because they cover the cost of regional jet flights on a per departure basis. However, if this structure were to change regional jets would become a less appealing alternative. To better understand the consequences of a change in the operation patterns, changes in the cost of regional and traditional jets were analyzed when trip length and pilot costs per block hour were normalized. It was found that regional jet costs per trip are very similar to traditional jet costs per trip when the trip length between the two aircraft categories is normalized, but that the normalization of pilot cost per block does not have a significant effect on the relative costs of the two aircraft types. In 2003, the US regional jet operations showed a high density of flights in the northeastern part of the country. This part of the US also has the largest concentration of traditional jet operations; this interaction may result in congestion problems since the two types of aircraft exhibit different performance. In particular, regional jets were observed to exhibit lower climb rates than traditional jets, which may impact air traffic control handling and sector design. It was also observed that as regional jets replace turboprops, they compete for runways and take off trajectories with narrow body jets. The combination of the different performance and the competition for resources between regional and other jets may result in increased delays and congestions as well as increased controller workload. The future growth of regional jets is uncertain. However, currently both US Airways and Jet Blue have placed orders for new Embraer aircraft indicating that the growth of regional jets will continue for the time being. In addition, both Embraer and Bombardier are currently designing and manufacturing larger regional jets. These aircraft will be designed to accommodate more passengers on further trips and as a result will further change the composition and performance capabilities of the national fleet

Personalized Digital Services: Power, Equity and Transparency in "Digital Familiars"

A brief working paper prepared for "New Approaches to Research on the Social Implications of Emerging Technologies." Oxford Internet Institute. University of Oxford. April 15-16, 2005.National Science Foundation IGERT Progra

More than "just shopping:" personalization, privacy and the (ab)use of data

Working draft of the Personalization/Customization GroupEmerging technologies often produce unexpected consequences that existing institutions and policies are unable to deal with effectively. Because predicting the consequences of technological change is difficult, responses to emerging technologies tend to be reactive (if not passive), rather than proactive. Improved understanding of the potential consequences of a particular technology would enable policymakers and analysts to implement appropriate measures more quickly and perhaps even act prospectively. This paper proposes a general approach that can be used to identify potential sources of disruption from emerging technologies in order to enable proactive policy actions to limit the negative consequences of these disruptions. New technologies are often characterized through the use of metaphors and/or comparisons to existing technologies. While such comparisons provide an easy way to generate understanding of a new technology they often also neglect important aspects of that technology. As a result, the use of metaphors and comparisons creates a disconnect between what the metaphor suggests is happening and what is actually taking place. The incompleteness of the metaphors leads to a disparity in the appreciation of the benefits, opportunities, and pitfalls of a new technology. This disparity allows certain aspects of the technology to be ignored and/or exploited, with potentially disruptive social consequences. An analysis of the mismatch between metaphorical characterizations and the actual attributes of a new technology can help identify otherwise overlooked issues and determine if existing institutions and policies can adequately respond. This paper uses a study of personalization technologies by online retailers to demonstrate the potential for disruption caused by failures of metaphor to adequately describe new technologies. Online retailing technologies have equipped firms with tools that allow them to move closer to the ``mass market of one" --- satisfying the demands of a mass market through individually-targeted sales strategies (i.e., personalization). While the metaphors of ``shopping" and ``catalog" have been used to describe online retail ``stores," these metaphors fail to capture several key aspects of online retail technologies such as aggregation, replication, persistence, and analysis of the personal data easily collected by such businesses. As a result, the institutions that exist to protect consumers when dealing with traditional, physical stores may no longer be sufficient. Furthermore, the pervasiveness of the metaphor undermines the ability of consumers to understand or debate the negative consequences of personalization, especially in the areas of privacy and identity.National Science Foundatio

Emergence of Regional Jets and The Implications on Air Traffic Management

Airlines are increasingly using regional jets to better match aircraft size to high value, but limited demand markets. This has been especially important following increased financial pressure on the industry after September 11th 2001. The increase in regional jets represents a significant change from traditional air traffic patterns. To investigate the possible impacts of this change, this study analyzed the emerging flight patterns and performance of regional jets compared to traditional jets and turboprops. In addition, a comparison between regional jet flight patterns in the United States and Europe was conducted. Regional jet operations generally cluster in the regions with high traditional jet operation density, implying a high level of interaction between the two aircraft types. The regional jets were observed to fly shorter routes than traditional jets, with few transcontinental flights. However, the gap between regional and narrow body traditional jet stage lengths appears to be closing. In addition, regional jets were observed to exhibit lower climb rates than traditional jets, which may impact air traffic control handling and sector design. It was also observed that regional jets cruise at lower altitudes than traditional jets possibly due to their shorter flight routes. Finally, it was observed that regional jets cruise at a lower Mach number than traditional jets, except on specific high density routes where the regional jets are either slowing down the traditional jet traffic or flying above their optimum cruise speed. Since the composition and utilization of the national fleet is changing, this will pose potential problems for air traffic management. In particular, it may cause serious congestion issues when demand increases during an economic recovery

The Dynamics of Air Transportation System Transition

Both U.S. and European Air Transportation Systems face substantial challenges in transforming to meet future demand. This paper uses a feedback model to identify and describe key issues in the dynamics of system transition, with particular emphasis on stakeholder cost-benefit dynamics and processes for reviewing and implementing new system capabilities. Understanding of these dynamics is further reinforced through discussion of ADS-B and new runway construction examples. To implement the significant changes currently envisioned for ATM systems, it will be critical to structure system changes to anticipate and overcome stakeholder disagreements and improve the efficiency of the approval and implementation processes

The Metaphors of Emerging Technologies: Unpacking the disconnects between the "what" and the "how" in the world of "online shopping"

Conference paper preprint, 9th International Conference on Technology Policy and Innovation, Santorini, GreeceEmerging technologies often produce unexpected consequences that existing institutions and policies are unable to deal with effectively. Because predicting the consequences of technological change is difficult, responses to emerging technologies tend to be reactive (if not passive), rather than proactive. Improved understanding of the potential consequences of a particular technology would enable policymakers and analysts to implement appropriate measures more quickly and perhaps even act prospectively. This paper proposes a general approach that can be used to identify potential sources of disruption resulting from emerging technologies in order to enable proactive policy actions to limit the negative consequences of these disruptions. New technologies are often characterized through the use of metaphors and/or comparisons to existing technologies. While such comparisons provide an easy way to generate understanding of a new technology they often also neglect important aspects of that technology. As a result, the use of metaphors and comparisons creates a disconnect between what the metaphor suggests is happening and what is actually taking place. The incompleteness of the metaphors leads to a disparity in the appreciation of the benefits, and pitfalls of a new technology. This disparity allows certain aspects of the technology to be ignored and/or exploited, with potentially disruptive social consequences. An analysis of the mismatch between metaphorical characterizations and the actual attributes of a new technology can help identify otherwise overlooked issues and determine if existing institutions and policies can adequately respond. This paper uses a study of personalization technologies by online retailers to demonstrate the potential for disruption caused by failures of metaphor to adequately describe new technologies. Online retailing technologies have equipped firms with tools that allow them to move closer to the ``mass market of one" --- satisfying the demands of a mass market through individually-targeted sales strategies (i.e., personalization). While the metaphors of ``shopping" and ``catalog" have been used to describe online retail ``stores," these metaphors fail to capture several key aspects of online retail technologies such as aggregation, replication, persistence, and analysis of the personal data easily collected by such businesses. As a result, the institutions that exist to protect consumers when dealing with traditional, physical stores may no longer be sufficient. Furthermore, the pervasiveness of the metaphor undermines the ability of consumers to understand or debate the negative consequences of personalization, especially in the areas of privacy and identity.National Science Foundation, IGERT Progra

Dynamics of change in the US air transportation system

Thesis (Ph. D. in Technology, Management, and Policy)--Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Engineering Systems Division, Technology, Management, and Policy Program, 2008."June 2008."Includes bibliographical references (p. 227-244).The US Air Transportation System is currently facing a number of challenges including an increasing demand for travel and growing environmental requirements. In order to successfully meet future needs, the system will need to transition from its current state using a combination of technology, infrastructure, procedure, and policy changes. However, the complexities of the air transportation system make implementing changes a challenge. In particular, the multi-stakeholder nature of the system poses a significant barrier to transition. Historically, many changes in the air transportation system were driven by safety concerns and implemented following accidents which provided the momentum to overcome transition barriers. As a result of past changes, the system has become increasingly safe resulting in the emergence of new drivers for change. Security has emerged as a driver following the terrorist attacks of 9/11/2001 in the US and a number of system changes have since been implemented. Currently, capacity is one of the largest drivers of change. Addressing capacity issues requires solutions that can be accepted by stakeholders, and pass the necessary certification and approval requirements for implementation. The contribution of aviation to global greenhouse gas emissions is also becoming a significant driver for change in the system. The goal of this work is to understand how the air transportation system changes in response to safety, security, capacity, and environmental drivers for transition. In order to understand the dynamics of transition, historical cases of system change were studied. Twenty seven such cases have been analyzed to construct a feedback process model of transition and to explore specific change dynamics observed.(cont.) These dynamics include: understanding the role of crisis events as catalyst for change; the effect that timing of solution development has on the overall time constant for change; the role that stakeholder objectives play in the transition process, and the use of approval and certification processes to stall or block change. understanding the process of change in the US Air Transportation System can inform future changes in aviation as well as in other systems with similar properties.by Aleksandra L. Mozdzanowska.Ph.D