Risk Management for Nonprofits

Our research, based on the first comprehensive financial analysis of New York's nonprofit sector, found that 10% of the city's nonprofits were insolvent and 40% had virtually no cash reserves. Less than 30% were financially strong. If anything, things are getting harder, given market volatility, the move to value-based payments in health care, and increased costs for real estate and labor.Fortunately, we also discovered that nonprofits can take a few concrete steps to reduce their risk of failure and sustain vital programs:Make risk management an explicit responsibility of the audit and/or finance committee.Develop a risk-tolerance statement, indicating the limits for risk-taking and the willingness to trade short-term impact for longer-term sustainability.Keep a running list of major risks and the likelihood and expected loss for each.Put in place plans for how to maintain service in the event of a financial disaster, or even a "living will" that specifies how programs will be transferred to other providers (or wound down in an orderly fashion) in the event that recovery is not possible.Brief trustees regularly about longer-term trends in the operating environment.Periodically explore the potential benefits of various forms of organizational redesign, such as mergers, acquisitions, joint ventures, partnerships, outsourcing, managed dissolutions, and divestments.Compare financial performance to peers on an annual basis.Develop explicit targets for operating results (margins, months of cash, etc.) and contingency plans if minimum targets are not met.Redouble efforts to build and safeguard a financial cushion or "rainy-day fund," even if doing so forces consideration of difficult programmatic trade-offs.Doing any of these will depend on a functioning partnership between capable management and a critical mass of experienced, educated and engaged board members. Therefore, organizations serious about risk management must work hard to recruit board members with a wide range of experience. They need to ensure ongoing education for both new and existing board members and to empower high-functioning committees. Many organizations, particularly large and complex ones, would also benefit from having an experienced nonprofit executive on their board

Language discrimination by human newborns and by cotton-top tamarin monkeys

Humans, but no other animal, make meaningful use of spoken language. What is unclear, however, is whether this capacity depends on a unique constellation of perceptual and neurobiological mechanisms, or whether a subset of such mechanisms are shared with other organisms. To explore this problem, we conducted parallel experiments on human newborns and cotton-top tamarin monkeys to assess their ability to discriminate unfamiliar languages. Using a habituation-dishabituation procedure, we show that human newborns and tamarins can discriminate sentences from Dutch and Japanese, but not if the sentences are played backwards. Moreover, the cues for discrimination are not present in backward speech. This suggests that the human newborns' tuning to certain properties of speech relies on general processes of the primate auditory system

The Financial Health of Philadelphia-Area Nonprofits

As nonprofit organizations in the five Pennsylvania counties of Greater Philadelphia (Bucks, Chester, Delaware, Montgomery and Philadelphia) emerge from the financial crisis of the last decade and head into a very different and hard-to-forecast political and economic environment in the future, financial discipline, smart growth and strong governance are more important than ever. Accordingly, many nonprofit executives and governing boards are asking new questions about the organizations they govern. What risks do we face?1 How risky are we in relation to our peers? Are we doing the right things to understand and mitigate our risks? How should we balance financial risk against programmatic reward? What should we do to reduce the potential hardships from financial distress

The Financial Health of the United States Nonprofit Sector: Facts and Observations

The Financial Health of the United States Nonprofit Sector examines the finances of more than 219,000 U.S. nonprofits for FY 2010-2014. The findings are sobering:Around 50 percent have less than one month of cash reservesSome 30 percent have lost money over three yearsSome 7-8 percent are technically insolventIn this report, we provide some context setting with a brief overview of the size and scale of the US nonprofit sector and why its financial health matters. We look at the financial vital signs of the sector, analyzing key financial metrics segmented by size, sub-sector, and geography1. We describe practical steps that trustees and their organizations can take to strengthen their financial position. Finally, we offer some long-term ideas for how funders and the rest of the ecosystem can actively reduce the risks of financial distress in the nonprofit sector. We conclude with an appendix of tables summarizing key financial health indicators for the sector

Inference on historical Ebola outbreaks using hierarchical models: a particle filtering approach

Particle filters are commonly used to estimate the likelihood for epidemic models when it is analytically intractable. These methods marginalise over missing data and do not suffer from the scaling issues present in traditional data-augmented Markov chain Monte Carlo methods. In this thesis we present a particle filtering methodology which extends upon recent advances in the field to simulate realisations of a process which are consistent with observations of two events from the same outbreak, such as symptom onsets and recoveries. This particle filtering approach is used in a particle marginal Metropolis-Hastings (pmMH) algorithm to fit a hierarchical model to four outbreaks of Ebola simultaneously for the first time. We estimated R₀ above 1 for all four outbreaks (as expected by the threshold theorem), with three of the outbreaks having values above 3. Our results also indicated that transmission began to reduce before the implementation of major intervention measures, which may be due to changes in community awareness. An additional area of work in this thesis relates to the efficiency of pmMH methods. Mixing of the overall Markov chain is crucial to the efficiency of a pmMH method, and is controlled by the variance in the log-likelihood estimates from the particle filter at the maximum a posteriori (MAP). This variance is in turn controlled by the number of particles used. We develop a more sophisticated methodology for estimating the MAP when only noisy estimates of the log-likelihood are available. This enables a priori tuning of the inference methods and the possibility of automating the tuning process.Thesis (MPhil) -- University of Adelaide, School of Mathematical Sciences, 202

A VLA Study of Newly-Discovered Southern Latitude Non-Thermal Filaments in the Galactic Center: Radio Continuum Total-intensity and Spectral Index Properties

The non-thermal filament (NTF) radio structures clustered within a few hundred parsecs of the Galactic Center (GC) are apparently unique to this region of the Galaxy. Recent radio images of the GC using MeerKAT at 1 GHz have revealed a multitude of faint, previously unknown NTF bundles (NTFBs), some of which are comprised of as many as 10 or more individual filaments. In this work we present Very Large Array (VLA) observations at C- and X-bands (4 - 12 GHz) at arcsecond-scale resolutions of three of these newly-discovered NTFBs, all located at southern Galactic latitudes. These observations allow us to compare their total-intensity properties with those of the larger NTF population. We find that these targets generally possess properties similar to what is observed in the larger NTF population. However, the larger NTF population generally has steeper spectral index values than what we observe for our chosen targets. The results presented here based on the total-intensity properties of these structures indicate that the NTFs are likely all formed from Cosmic Rays (CRs). These CRs are either generated by a nearby compact source and then diffuse along the NTF lengths or are generated by extended, magnetized structures whose magnetic field undergoes reconnection with the NTF magnetic field.Comment: 18 pages, 13 figures, 2 tables. Submitted to ApJ for peer-revie

Systematic review and meta-analysis of Mendelian randomisation analyses of abdominal aortic aneurysms

Introduction: Mendelian randomisation (MR) has been suggested to be able to overcome biases of observational studies, but no meta-analysis is available on MR studies on abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA). This systematic review and Meta-analysis examined the evidence of causal risk factors for AAA identified in MR studies. Methods: Publicly available databases were systematically searched for MR studies that reported any causal risk factors for AAA diagnosis. Meta-analyses were performed using random effect models and reported as odds ratio (OR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI). Study quality was assessed using a modified version of Strengthening the Reporting of Mendelian Randomisation Studies (STROBE-MR) guidelines. Results: Sixteen MR studies involving 34,050 patients with AAA and 2,205,894 controls were included. Meta-analyses suggested that one standard deviation increase in high density lipoprotein (HDL) significantly reduced (OR: 0.66, 95% CI: 0.61, 0.72) and one standard deviation increase in low density lipoprotein (LDL) significantly increased the risk (OR: 1.68, 95%, CI: 1.55, 1.82) of AAA. One standard deviation increase in triglycerides did not significantly increase the risk of AAA (OR: 1.21, 95% CI: 0.86, 1.71). Quality assessment suggested that ten and five studies were of low and moderate risk of bias respectively, with one study considered as high risk of bias. Conclusion: This meta-analysis suggests LDL and HDL are positive and negative casual risk factors for AAA

Selective Permeability of Carboxysome Shell Pores to Anionic Molecules

Carboxysomes are closed polyhedral cellular microcompartments that increase the efficiency of carbon fixation in autotrophic bacteria. Carboxysome shells consist of small proteins that form hexameric units with semipermeable central pores containing binding sites for anions. This feature is thought to selectively allow access to RuBisCO enzymes inside the carboxysome by HCO_3– (the dominant form of CO_2 in the aqueous solution at pH 7.4) but not O_2, which leads to a nonproductive reaction. To test this hypothesis, here we use molecular dynamics simulations to characterize the energetics and permeability of CO_2, O_2, and HCO_3– through the central pores of two different shell proteins, namely, CsoS1A of α-carboxysome and CcmK4 of β-carboxysome shells. We find that the central pores are in fact selectively permeable to anions such as HCO_3–, as predicted by the model