Development of a novel hybrid multi-boosting neural network model for spatial prediction of urban flood

Abstract In this study, a new hybridized machine learning algorithm for urban flood susceptibility mapping, named MultiB-MLPNN, was developed using a multi-boosting technique and MLPNN. The model was tested in Amol City, Iran, a data-scarce city in an ungauged area which is prone to severe flood inundation events and currently lacks flood prevention infrastructure. Performance of the hybridized model was compared with that of a standalone MLPNN model, random forest and boosted regression trees. Area under the curve, efficiency, true skill statistic, Matthews correlation coefficient, misclassification rate, sensitivity and specificity were used to evaluate model performance. In validation, the MultiB-MLPNN model showed the best predictive performance. The hybridized MultiB-MLPNN model is thus useful for generating realistic flood susceptibility maps for data-scarce urban areas. The maps can be used to develop risk-reduction measures to protect urban areas from devastating floods, particularly where available data are insufficient to support physically based hydrological or hydraulic models

Development of novel hybridized models for urban flood susceptibility mapping

Abstract Floods in urban environments often result in loss of life and destruction of property, with many negative socio-economic effects. However, the application of most flood prediction models still remains challenging due to data scarcity. This creates a need to develop novel hybridized models based on historical urban flood events, using, e.g., metaheuristic optimization algorithms and wavelet analysis. The hybridized models examined in this study (Wavelet-SVR-Bat and Wavelet-SVR-GWO), designed as intelligent systems, consist of a support vector regression (SVR), integrated with a combination of wavelet transform and metaheuristic optimization algorithms, including the grey wolf optimizer (GWO), and the bat optimizer (Bat). The efficiency of the novel hybridized and standalone SVR models for spatial modeling of urban flood inundation was evaluated using different cutoff-dependent and cutoff-independent evaluation criteria, including area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), Accuracy (A), Matthews Correlation Coefficient (MCC), Misclassification Rate (MR), and F-score. The results demonstrated that both hybridized models had very high performance (Wavelet-SVR-GWO: AUC = 0.981, A = 0.92, MCC = 0.86, MR = 0.07; Wavelet-SVR-Bat: AUC = 0.972, A = 0.88, MCC = 0.76, MR = 0.11) compared with the standalone SVR (AUC = 0.917, A = 0.85, MCC = 0.7, MR = 0.15). Therefore, these hybridized models are a promising, cost-effective method for spatial modeling of urban flood susceptibility and for providing in-depth insights to guide flood preparedness and emergency response services