Design model for the development of agrarian economy: Food aspect

Based on the assessment of the agrarian economy development and generalization of the main directions of scientific thought, the article shows that in the last decade, the activation of agrarian policy has promoted positive shifts only in the certain directions. These shifts are not connected with a decrease in import dependence in the main food commodities. This has resulted in a low level of food self-sufficiency, seed and breeding raw materials for food production. On the example of Penza region, the authors reveal the main reasons of the low effectiveness of state measures, note their redistribution in favour of the large-scale enterprises, which cannot alone solve the import substitution problem. Using econometric methods and the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) method, we have proved that the current state support mechanism is not connected with the extension of the food programme, and the subsidizing does not stimulate producers to increase the output of production. The method of statistical distribution allowed us to conclude that the problem consists in the current format of state regulation, which is implemented through financial instruments of monetary and credit institutes. Moreover, due to the low parameters of solvency and a lack of mortgage base of the most of the enterprises, it obviously deprives them of borrowed funds and budgetary provisions. On this basis, the authors draw the conclusion that a considerable part of agrarian resources in the region is not involved in the solution of food problems. We emphasize that the project management of agrarian production can become the main driver, allowing to the majority of producers to get the access to the attracted and budgetary resources. Moreover, as the received empirical model shows, the effectiveness of the operating support measures increases. The research on the basis of the theory of marginal efficiency of expenses has shown the considerable opportunities of increase in relative to a rouble of additional investments in the organizations with low financial performance providing corresponding conditions. The results of the research will be used for the development of the offers for the modernization of methods and models in strategic planning and forecasting of the development of agroindustry.Предложена проектная модель развития аграрной экономики. Рассмотрена система мер по продовольственному обеспечению населения страны, представляющая собой совокупность взаимосвязанных процессов производства, обращения и потребления сельскохозяйственной продукции, сырья и продовольствия, находящихся под влиянием комплекса факторов микро и макроэкономического характера, специфических для каждого региона. Выявлены причины отклонений финансовой устойчивости и низкой степени действенности, реализуемых государственных мер. Дана эконометрическая оценка зависимости объемов производства сельскохозяйственной продукции в Пензенской области.The research has been supported by both the Grant of the President of the Russian Federation MK-5177.2016.6

Models of scenario forecasting of the region's agriculture development

The problem of eficient forecasting for the agriculture is connected with the imperfect methodological and instrumental substantiation of its development parameters. Systematisation of the western models of partial equilibrium has proved that projecting the international experience of forecasts' substantiating on the Russian agrarian economy reduces the forecasts' quality and distorts the predicted situation for the food market. That happens because such models are based on different criteria and objectives for the farmers' development. We developed modern models for substantiating the parameters of agricultural development and scenario forecasts. The research objectives are connected with generalisation, systematisation and critical assessment of the instruments used for agricultural forecasting in Russian and foreign practice. We focused on shaping the substantially different instruments of scenario forecasting and model calculations. We applied the method of econometric diagnostics, the partial equilibrium model, and Cobb-Douglas production function. We used the data of financial reporting of 250 agricultural manufacturers from Penza oblast for the period from 2006 to 2016 as the study's information basis. Further, we developed a set of scenario forecasting models, which are significantly different. These models have the functional capabilities of assessing the prospects of the agricultural development taking into account the attained production level, agrarian market's environment, state measures, key factors of the agricultural products' output. Based on the assessment of these models and diagnosed results, we concluded that the existing trends of forward movement in terms of the agricultural production's supply are insuficient, as they do not fully satisfy the demand. We revealed the elasticity and disproportionality of the relationships between the growth rates of supply and demand in the agro-food market. Moreover, we collected the data on the qualitative dependence of the activities' results in total on the factors of agricultural production and the state support measures. These factors show the threshold of expediency for additional investments of land, labour, capital and subsidies. This information will allow improving the economic mechanism of forecasting the agricultural strategic development. Additionally, it will contribute to strengthening the focus on the outcome of the manufacturers' activities and increasing the level of achievement of the anticipated indicators. © 2019 Institute of Economics, Ural Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.Разработаны модели прогнозирования перспектив развития агропродовольственного сектора. Рассмотрены модели динамического развития производства основных видов продукции растениеводства и животноводства в Пензенской области. Выявлены новые знания о низкой эластичности и непропорциональности взаимосвязей темпов роста предложения и спроса на агропродовольственном рынке.The article has been prepared with the support of Russian Foundation for Basic research, the project. 16-32-00015-OGN