Mathematical techniques for estimating operational readiness of complex systems

Development of methods for predicting operational readiness of complex systems based on probability theory is discussed. Operational readiness of systems is defined and mathematical relationships involved in determining readiness are presented. Example of reliability engineering and quality control is included

Patterns of disrupted maternal behaviour within psychoanalytic parent-infant psychotherapy: a case study [Volume 2]

Research has identified atypical parental behaviours that are associated with the development of disorganised attachment in infants. This paper reviews the literature on the different types of these atypical parental behaviours, their nature and theories regarding their aetiology. In particular, research into the mechanisms through which specific parental behaviours may lead to infants developing a disorganised attachment is considered. Within this, the research on parental unresolved childhood attachment traumas and how these may be repeated and transmitted within the parent-infant relationships are explored. This includes the research on the impact of this on infants in terms of risk of later psychopathology. Given the mental health and thus clinical implications, the literature on the ways in which parent-infant psychoanalytic psychotherapy addresses these parental behaviours, preventing these potential difficulties, is explored. Using the research to inform clinical practice, this review considers the important implications for how early disturbance in the mother-baby relationship can be addressed within this treatment modality and the importance of early intervention in promoting a more positive attachment between infant and parent

Changes in recreational drug use, drug use associated with chemsex, and HIV-related behaviours, among HIV-negative men who have sex with men in London and Brighton, 2013-2016.

OBJECTIVES: The objective of this study was to compare the prevalence of polydrug use, use of drugs associated with chemsex, specific drug use, and HIV-related behaviours, between two time periods , using two groups of HIV-negative men who have sex with men (MSM) attending the same sexual health clinics in London and Brighton, in two consecutive periods of time from 2013 to 2016. METHODS: Data from MSM in the cross-sectional Attitudes to and Understanding Risk of Acquisition of HIV (AURAH) study (June 2013 to September 2014) were compared with baseline data from different MSM in the prospective cohort study Attitudes to and Understanding Risk of Acquisition of HIV over Time (AURAH2) (November 2014 to April 2016). Prevalence of polydrug use, drug use associated with chemsex and specific drug use, and 10 measures of HIV-related behaviours including condomless sex, post-exposure prophylaxis (PEP) use, pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) use, and HIV testing, were compared. Prevalence ratios (PRs) for the association of the study (time period) with drug use and HIV-related behaviour measures were estimated using modified Poisson regression analysis, unadjusted and adjusted for sociodemographic factors. RESULTS: In total, 991 MSM were included from AURAH and 1031 MSM from AURAH2. After adjustment for sociodemographic factors, use of drugs associated with chemsex had increased (adjusted PR (aPR) 1.30, 95% CI 1.11 to 1.53) and there were prominent increases in specific drug use; in particular, mephedrone (aPR 1.32, 95% CI 1.10 to 1.57), γ-hydroxybutyric/γ-butryolactone (aPR 1.47, 95% CI 1.15 to 1.87) and methamphetamine (aPR 1.42, 95% CI 1.01 to 2.01). Use of ketamine had decreased (aPR 0.54, 95% CI 0.38 to 0.78). Certain measures of HIV-related behaviours had also increased, most notably PEP use (aPR 1.50, 95% CI 1.21 to 1.88) and number of self-reported bacterial STI diagnoses (aPR 1.24, 95% CI 1.08 to 1.43). CONCLUSIONS: There have been significant increases in drug use associated with chemsex and some measures of HIV-related behaviours among HIV-negative MSM in the last few years. Changing patterns of drug use and associated behaviours should be monitored to enable sexual health services to plan for the increasingly complex needs of some clients

Intimate partner violence, depression, and sexual behaviour among gay, bisexual and other men who have sex with men in the PROUD trial.

BACKGROUND: Little is known about the prevalence and correlates of intimate partner violence (IPV) among gay, bisexual and other men who have sex with men (GBMSM) in the UK. The aim of this study was to investigate the prevalence of IPV, associations of socio-economic and psychosocial factors with IPV, and the association of IPV with depression and sexual behaviour, among GBMSM in the PROUD trial of pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP). METHODS: PROUD enrolled 544 HIV-negative participants in England from 2012 to 2014; participants were randomised to immediate or deferred PrEP. This analysis included 436 GBMSM who had IPV data at month-12 and/or 24. Prevalence of IPV victimization and perpetration (lifetime, and in the past year) was assessed at these time-points. Generalized estimating equations were used to investigate associations with IPV, using pooled data from both time-points. RESULTS: At month-12 (N = 410), 44.9% of men reported ever being a victim of IPV, 15.6% in the last year, and 19.5% reported ever perpetrating IPV, 7.8% in the last year. At month-24 (N = 333), the corresponding prevalence was 40.2 and 14.7% for lifetime and past year IPV victimization and 18.0 and 6.9% for lifetime and past year IPV perpetration. IPV prevalence did not differ by randomised arm. Men reporting internalized homophobia and sexualized drug use were more likely to report IPV. Lifetime and last year experience of IPV victimization and perpetration were strongly associated with depressive symptoms (PHQ-9 ≥ 10) (adjusted for socio-demographics: lifetime IPV victimization PR 2.57 [95% CI: 1.71, 3.86]; past year IPV victimization PR 2.93 [95% CI: 1.96, 4.40]; lifetime IPV perpetration PR 2.87 [95% CI: 1.91, 4.32]; past year IPV perpetration PR 3.47 [95% CI: 2.13, 5.64], p < 0.001 for all); IPV was not consistently associated with measures of condomless anal sex or high partner numbers. CONCLUSIONS: GBMSM at high-risk of HIV who are seeking/taking PrEP may experience a high burden of IPV, which may be linked to depression. Training on awareness of and enquiry for IPV among GBMSM in sexual health clinics is recommended. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov identifier: NCT02065986 . Registered 19 February 2014 (retrospectively registered)

Clinically significant depressive symptoms and sexual behaviour among men who have sex with men.

BACKGROUND: The relationship between depression and sexual behaviour among men who have sex with men (MSM) is poorly understood. AIMS: To investigate prevalence and correlates of depressive symptoms (Patient Health Questionnaire-9 score ≥10) and the relationship between depressive symptoms and sexual behaviour among MSM reporting recent sex. METHOD: The Attitudes to and Understanding of Risk of Acquisition of HIV (AURAH) is a cross-sectional study of UK genitourinary medicine clinic attendees without diagnosed HIV (2013-2014). RESULTS: Among 1340 MSM, depressive symptoms (12.4%) were strongly associated with socioeconomic disadvantage and lower supportive network. Adjusted for key sociodemographic factors, depressive symptoms were associated with measures of condomless sex partners in the past 3 months (≥2 (prevalence ratio (PR) 1.42, 95% CI 1.17-1.74; P=0.001), unknown or HIV-positive status (PR 1.43, 95% CI 1.20-1.71; P<0.001)), sexually transmitted infection (STI) diagnosis (PR 1.46, 95% CI 1.19-1.79; P<0.001) and post-exposure prophylaxis use in the past year (PR 1.83, 95% CI 1.33-2.50; P<0.001). CONCLUSIONS: Management of mental health may play a role in HIV and STI prevention. DECLARATION OF INTEREST: A.N.P. has received payments for presentations made at meetings sponsored by Gilead in spring 2015. N.C.N. has received support for attendance at conferences, speaker fees and payments for attendance at advisory boards from Gilead Sciences, Viiv Healthcare, Janssen Pharmaceuticals and Bristol-Myers Squibb and a research grant from Gilead Sciences. D.A. served on the advisory board for Gilead in January 2016. M.M.G. has had sponsorship to attend conferences by Bristol-Myers Squibb, been on the BioCryst advisory board and run trials for Merck, Gilead, SSAT, BioCryst and Novartis. COPYRIGHT AND USAGE: © The Royal College of Psychiatrists 2017. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Non-Commercial, No Derivatives (CC BY-NC-ND) license

Ethnicity and sexual risk in heterosexual people attending sexual health clinics in England: a cross-sectional, self-administered questionnaire study.

OBJECTIVES: In the UK, people of black ethnicity experience a disproportionate burden of HIV and STI. We aimed to assess the association of ethnicity with sexual behaviour and sexual health among women and heterosexual men attending genitourinary medicine (GUM) clinics in England. METHODS: The Attitudes to and Understanding of Risk of Acquisition of HIV is a cross-sectional, self-administered questionnaire study of HIV negative people recruited from 20 GUM clinics in England, 2013-2014. Modified Poisson regression with robust SEs was used to calculate adjusted prevalence ratios (aPR) for the association between ethnicity and various sexual risk behaviours, adjusted for age, study region, education and relationship status. RESULTS: Questionnaires were completed by 1146 individuals, 676 women and 470 heterosexual men. Ethnicity was recorded for 1131 (98.8%) participants: 550 (48.6%) black/mixed African, 168 (14.9%) black/mixed Caribbean, 308 (27.2%) white ethnic groups, 105 (9.3%) other ethnicity. Compared with women from white ethnic groups, black/mixed African women were less likely to report condomless sex with a non-regular partner (aPR (95% CI) 0.67 (0.51 to 0.88)), black/mixed African and black/mixed Caribbean women were less likely to report two or more new partners (0.42 (0.32 to 0.55) and 0.44 (0.29 to 0.65), respectively), and black/mixed Caribbean women were more likely to report an STI diagnosis (1.56 (1.00 to 2.42)). Compared with men from white ethnic groups, black/mixed Caribbean men were more likely to report an STI diagnosis (1.91 (1.20 to 3.04)), but did not report risk behaviours more frequently. Men and women of black/mixed Caribbean ethnicity remained more likely to report STI history after adjustment for sexual risk behaviours. DISCUSSION: Risk behaviours were reported less frequently by women of black ethnicity; however, history of STI was more prevalent among black/mixed Caribbean women. In black/mixed Caribbean men, higher STI history was not explained by ethnic variation in reported risk behaviours. The association between STI and black/mixed Caribbean ethnicity remained after adjustment for risk behaviours

Associations of depression and anxiety symptoms with sexual behaviour in women and heterosexual men attending sexual health clinics: a cross-sectional study.

OBJECTIVE: To assess the association of symptoms of depression and anxiety with sexual risk behaviour and history, among women and heterosexual men attending genitourinary medicine (GUM) clinics. METHODS: Attitudes to and Understanding of Risk of Acquisition of HIV (AURAH) was a cross-sectional, self-administered questionnaire study recruited from 20 GUM clinics in England, 2013-2014. This analysis included women and heterosexual men. The prevalence of depression and anxiety symptoms was assessed. Modified Poisson regression was used to produce adjusted prevalence ratios (aPR) for the association of t demographic, socioeconomic and lifestyle factors with depression and anxiety, adjusted for gender, age, ethnicity, education level and study region. Among individuals reporting sex in the past 3 months, associations of depression and anxiety with sexual risk behaviour and history were assessed separately by gender, adjusted for age, ethnicity, study region, education and relationship status. RESULTS: Questionnaires were completed by 676 women and 470 heterosexual men. Depression symptoms were reported by 100 (14.8%) women and 33 men (7.0%). Anxiety symptoms were reported by 79 women (11.7%) and 21 men (4.5%). Among women reporting recent sex, those with depression symptoms were more likely to report condomless sex with a non-regular partner, aPR 1.38 (1.07-1.77) and recent condomless sex with two or more partners, 1.80 (1.25-2.59). Women with anxiety symptoms more likely to report recent condomless sex with two or more partners, 1.68 (1.13-2.50), low self-efficacy for condom use, 1.54 (1.02-2.31) and STI diagnosis in the last year 1.51 (1.04-2.20). Among heterosexual men reporting recent sex, depression and anxiety symptoms were associated with low self-efficacy with condom use, 2.32 (1.29-4.19) for depression and 2.23 (1.26-3.94) for anxiety, but not with measures of condomless sex. DISCUSSION: The associations between psychological symptoms and sexual risk behaviours highlight the importance of holistic assessment of need by both general and sexual health clinicians. We highlight the challenge in delivering holistic care associated with fragmentation of sexual health services

Trends in HIV incidence between 2013-2019 and association of baseline factors with subsequent incident HIV among gay, bisexual, and other men who have sex with men attending sexual health clinics in England: A prospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Prospective cohort studies of incident HIV and associated factors among gay, bisexual, and other men who have sex with men (GBMSM) in the United Kingdom are lacking. We report time trends in and factors associated with HIV incidence between 2013 and 2019 among a cohort of GBMSM: the AURAH2 prospective study. METHODS AND FINDINGS: Participants were recruited through 1 of 3 sexual health clinics in London and Brighton (July 2013 to April 2016) and self-completed a baseline paper questionnaire and subsequent 4-monthly and annual online questionnaires (March 2015 to March 2018), including information on sociodemographics, lifestyle, health and well-being, HIV status, sexual/HIV-related behaviours, and preexposure prophylaxis and postexposure prophylaxis (PrEP/PEP). Incident HIV was ascertained by linkage with national HIV surveillance data from Public Health England (PHE). We investigated the associations of HIV incidence with (1) baseline factors using mixed-effects Weibull proportional hazard models, unadjusted and adjusted for age, country of birth and ethnicity, sexuality, and education level; and (2) time-updated factors, using mixed-effects Poisson regression models. In total, 1,162 men (mean age 34 years, 82% white, 94% gay, 74% university-educated) were enrolled in the study. Thirty-three HIV seroconversions occurred over 4,618.9 person-years (PY) of follow-up: an overall HIV incidence rate (IR) of 0.71 (95% confidence interval (CI) 0.51 to 1.00) per 100 PY. Incidence declined from 1.47 (95% CI 0.48 to 4.57) per 100 PY in 2013/2014 to 0.25 (95% CI 0.08 to 0.78) per 100 PY in 2018/2019; average annual decline was 0.85-fold (p 10 partners [7/57]; 5 to 10 partners [5/60]; and 2 to 4 partners [11/293]: 14.04, 95% CI 4.11 to 47.98; 9.60, 95% CI 2.58 to 35.76; and 4.05, 95% CI 1.29 to 12.72, respectively, p 100 new partners: 3.17, 95% CI 1.39 to 7.26; 4.40, 95% CI 1.35 to 14.29; and 4.84, 95% CI 1.05 to 22.4, respectively, p < 0.001). Results were broadly consistent for time-updated analysis (n = 622 men). The study's main limitation is that men may not be representative of the broader GBMSM population in England. CONCLUSIONS: We observed a substantial decline in HIV incidence from 2013 to 2019 among GBMSM attending sexual health clinics. Injection drug use, chemsex use, and measures of high-risk sexual behaviour were strongly associated with incident HIV. Progress towards zero new infections could be achieved if combination HIV prevention including Test and Treat strategies and routine commissioning of a PrEP programme continues across the UK and reaches all at-risk populations

Investigating Conceptual Models for the Relationship Between Depression and Condomless Sex Among Gay, Bisexual, and Other Men Who have Sex with Men: Using Structural Equation Modelling to Assess Mediation

The aim of this study is to investigate five hypothesized mechanisms of causation between depression and condomless sex with ≥ 2 partners (CLS2+) among gay, bisexual, and other men who have sex with men (GBMSM), involving alternative roles of self-efficacy for sexual safety and recreational drug use. Data were from the AURAH cross-sectional study of 1340 GBMSM attending genitourinary medicine clinics in England (2013–2014). Structural equation modelling (SEM) was used to investigate which conceptual model was more consistent with the data. Twelve percent of men reported depression (PHQ-9 ≥ 10) and 32% reported CLS2+ in the past 3 months. AURAH data were more consistent with the model in which depression was considered to lead to CLS2+ indirectly via low self-efficacy for sexual safety (indirect Beta = 0.158; p < 0.001) as well as indirectly via higher levels of recreational drug use (indirect Beta = 0.158; p < 0.001). SEM assists in understanding the relationship between depression and CLS among GBMSM

Recreational drug use and use of drugs associated with chemsex among HIV-negative and HIV-positive heterosexual men and women attending sexual health and HIV clinics in England

Background: There is little information on the prevalence of recreational drug use among UK heterosexual men and women, in particular on use of drugs associated with ‘chemsex’ within gay communities. The aim of this study was to examine among HIV-negative and HIV-positive heterosexual men and women in England: (i) the prevalence of recreational drug use (including use of drugs associated with chemsex), (ii) socio-economic/lifestyle correlates of drug use, and (iii) the association of drug use with sexual behavior measures and mental health symptoms. Methods: Data are from the AURAH study of HIV-negative individuals attending sexual health clinics across England (2013–2014) and the ASTRA study of HIV-positive individuals attending HIV outpatient clinics in England (2011–2012). Prevalence of recreational drug use (past three months) and associations are presented separately among the four sample groups: HIV-negative (N = 470) and HIV-positive (N = 373) heterosexual men and HIVnegative (N = 676) and HIV-positive (N = 637) women. Results: The age standardized prevalence of any drug use was 22.9%, 17.1%, 15.3%, and 7.1% in the four sample groups respectively. In all groups, cannabis was the drug most commonly used (range from 4.7% to 17.9%) followed by cocaine (1.6% to 8.5%). The prevalence of use of drugs associated with chemsex was very low among HIV-negative participants (1.0% heterosexual men, 0.2% women) and zero among HIV-positive men and women. In age-adjusted analysis, factors linked to drug use overall and/or to cannabis and cocaine use specifically in the four sample groups included Black/mixed Caribbean and white (vs. Black/mixed African) ethnicity, lower level of education , cigarette smoking, and higher risk alcohol consumption. Associations of recreational drug use with measures of condomless sex, depression, and anxiety were observed in the four groups, but were particularly strong/apparent among women. Conclusion: Providers need to be aware of cannabis and cocaine use and its potential link with sexual risk behavior and symptoms of depression and anxiety among heterosexual men and women attending sexual health and HIV clinics