1 research outputs found
Development of Land Use Regression Models for PM<sub>2.5</sub>, PM<sub>2.5</sub> Absorbance, PM<sub>10</sub> and PM<sub>coarse</sub> in 20 European Study Areas; Results of the ESCAPE Project
Land Use Regression (LUR) models have been used increasingly
for
modeling small-scale spatial variation in air pollution concentrations
and estimating individual exposure for participants of cohort studies.
Within the ESCAPE project, concentrations of PM<sub>2.5</sub>, PM<sub>2.5</sub> absorbance, PM<sub>10</sub>, and PM<sub>coarse</sub> were
measured in 20 European study areas at 20 sites per area. GIS-derived
predictor variables (e.g., traffic intensity, population, and land-use)
were evaluated to model spatial variation of annual average concentrations
for each study area. The median model explained variance (<i>R</i><sup>2</sup>) was 71% for PM<sub>2.5</sub> (range across
study areas 35ā94%). Model <i>R</i><sup>2</sup> was
higher for PM<sub>2.5</sub> absorbance (median 89%, range 56ā97%)
and lower for PM<sub>coarse</sub> (median 68%, range 32ā 81%).
Models included between two and five predictor variables, with various
traffic indicators as the most common predictors. Lower <i>R</i><sup>2</sup> was related to small concentration variability or limited
availability of predictor variables, especially traffic intensity.
Cross validation <i>R</i><sup>2</sup> results were on average
8ā11% lower than model <i>R</i><sup>2</sup>. Careful
selection of monitoring sites, examination of influential observations
and skewed variable distributions were essential for developing stable
LUR models. The final LUR models are used to estimate air pollution
concentrations at the home addresses of participants in the health
studies involved in ESCAPE