Revising the roads investment strategy in rural areas : an application for Uganda

Based on extensive data collection in Uganda, this paper demonstrates that the rural access index, as defined today, should not be a government objective because the benefit of such investment is minimal, whereas achieving rural accessibility at less than 2 kilometers would require massive investments that are not sustainable. Taking into account the fact that plot size is limited on average to less than 1 hectare, a farmer’s transport requirement is usually minimal and does not necessarily involve massive investments in infrastructure. This is because most farmers cannot fully load a truck or pay for this service and, even if productivity were to increase significantly, the production threshold would not be reached by most individual farmers. Therefore, in terms of public policy, maintenance of the existing rural roads rather than opening new roads should be given priority; the district feeder road allocation maintenance formula should be revised to take into account economic potential and, finally, policy makers should devote their attention to innovative marketing models from other countries where smallholder loads are consolidated through private-based consolidators.Transport Economics Policy&Planning,Rural Roads&Transport,Roads&Highways,Rural Transport,Markets and Market Access

Dismal science, accounting and Newton?s second law : identifying force and rigidity in public expenditure analysis

This paper proposes a new measure of public expenditure force that policy makers and budget analysts should track in detail over time in routine fiscal monitoring. The paper suggests that adopting the measure will not only warn policy makers of possible impending fiscal pressures, but will help them to differentiate between those budgetary pressures that are temporary and those that may require reforms. The main utility of the expenditure force measure will be in country fiscal analysis. Measuring force across the entire budget allows practitioners to monitor and decompose the micro drivers of public spending pressure, watch out for rapidly expanding spending lines, and identify priorities for reform before these pressures lead to macro fiscal problems. Yet by its construct, spending force is internationally comparable, and independent of expenditure levels or spending types. This could allow global monitoring comparisons and global research into the drivers of public spending force across particular types of country characteristics and economic conditions. In time, and as more data become available, researchers can use the force measure to compare and contrast the dynamics of expenditure types across countries. For example the measure can be used to explore what gives some spending types an initial impulse; whether underlying factors cause different public spending categories to grow faster than average, or to accelerate over time; and what successful countries have done to manage rising force without damaging public services. Since force seems to be a decent predictor of fiscal episodes, it is suggested that speed limits for spending might be a feasible component of fiscal rules. Document type: Boo

Family Planning, Human Development and Growth in Uganda

This paper analyzes the long-run economic and social impact of family planning policies in Uganda. In the analysis of this, we extend MAMS (Maquette for MDG Simulations; a CGE model for development strategy analysis) in terms of its treatment of demography. Our results indicate that, by reducing extremely high fertility rates, family planning measures significantly improve welfare. This conclusion holds under a wide range of assumptions regarding costs of family planning and under alternative government uses of the resulting increase in fiscal space – we permit the space to be used to reduce either foreign (aid) or domestic receipts (from taxes or borrowing) while keeping spending policies unchanged. Methodologically, our analysis suggests that integration of demographic and economywide models offer an indispensable perspective on the impact of family planning on economic development

Family Planning, Human Development and Growth in Uganda

This paper analyzes the long-run economic and social impact of family planning policies in Uganda. In the analysis of this, we extend MAMS (Maquette for MDG Simulations; a CGE model for development strategy analysis) in terms of its treatment of demography. Our results indicate that, by reducing extremely high fertility rates, family planning measures significantly improve welfare. This conclusion holds under a wide range of assumptions regarding costs of family planning and under alternative government uses of the resulting increase in fiscal space – we permit the space to be used to reduce either foreign (aid) or domestic receipts (from taxes or borrowing) while keeping spending policies unchanged. Methodologically, our analysis suggests that integration of demographic and economywide models offer an indispensable perspective on the impact of family planning on economic development

Patterns of Growth and Public Spending in Uganda: Alternative Scenarios for 2003-2020

We explore the effects of alternative growth patterns, domestic policies, and foreign aid in Uganda. The analysis is based on a Ugandan version of one-country CGE model MAMS of the World Bank. The results pinpoint to the importance of export market access for sectors which experience TFP growth. This is especially pertinent to agriculture. We also suggest that only marginal gains are available from reallocating government outlays. More rapid government productivity growth or increased foreign aid is required for substantial gains, including reaching other MDGs than MDG 1

Patterns of Growth and Public Spending in Uganda: Alternative Scenarios for 2003-2020

We explore the effects of alternative growth patterns, domestic policies, and foreign aid in Uganda. The analysis is based on a Ugandan version of one-country CGE model MAMS of the World Bank. The results pinpoint to the importance of export market access for sectors which experience TFP growth. This is especially pertinent to agriculture. We also suggest that only marginal gains are available from reallocating government outlays. More rapid government productivity growth or increased foreign aid is required for substantial gains, including reaching other MDGs than MDG 1