Training and Support of Developing-Country Population Scientists: A Panel Report

This report offers an assessment of the current situation and needs for the future with regard to training population professionals. As the concerns of population scientists become more diverse and as institutions look beyond the limitations of their own programs, collaborative training programs are increasingly seen as an effective means of maximizing the training experience of students while potentially lowering overall costs. While it is clear that the most desirable situation is one in which population experts are trained primarily in high-quality institutions located in their own countries or regions, it is equally clear that this scenario is not likely to be achieved in the near future. Moreover, until career opportunities for trained population scientists improve in the developing world, many of those trained outside their own country may not return after their training is complete. The report includes recommendations focusing on graduate-level education and support for highly trained population professionals, directed toward three of the primary actors in the training of population scientists: 1) universities providing graduate training in population, 2) professional associations of population scientists, and 3) donors supporting population scientists in developing countries

Premarital Births and Union Formation in Rural South Africa.

CONTEXT: In rural South Africa, women often delay union formation until they are in their late 20s, though premarital first births are common. METHODS: Longitudinal data from the Agincourt Health and Socio-Demographic Surveillance System in rural South Africa were used to examine the relationship between premarital birth and union entry among 55,158 nonmigrant women aged 10-35 who took part in at least one annual census from 1993 to 2012. Discrete-time event history models were used to determine whether the likelihood of union formation differed between women who had had a premarital first birth and those who had not. Associations between single motherhood and union type (marriages or nonmarital partnerships) were identified using logistic regression. RESULTS: Forty-five percent of women had had a premarital first birth and 25% had entered a first union. Women who had had a premarital first birth were less likely than other women to have entered a first union (odds ratio, 0.6). Women who had had a premarital birth in the past year were more likely than those without a premarital birth to have entered a union (1.5), but women had reduced odds of union formation if they had had a birth 1-2 years earlier (0.9) or at least five years earlier (0.8). Unions formed within two years of a premarital birth had an elevated likelihood of being nonmarital partnerships (1.2-1.4). CONCLUSIONS: Single motherhood is common in the Agincourt HDSS, and women with a premarital first birth face challenges in establishing committed unions with partners

Training and support of developing-country population scientists: A panel report—Summary and recommendations

From its earliest days, the Population Council has recognized the importance and value of training population scientists from developing countries. Since 1952, the Council’s social science fellowship program has sustained a commitment to this goal; approximately 1,500 fellowships have been awarded for pre- and postdoctoral training in population studies. While the demand for population scientists remains strong, the field has changed substantially since those early years and a review of the program was needed. The Mellon Foundation funded a project in 2000 to assess future needs for training and support of population scientists from developing countries and assembled an international panel of experts. The panel’s mandate was to conduct a detailed examination of the current situation with respect to recruitment, training, funding, and employment of population scientists. On the basis of this assessment, the panel sought to identify gaps and make recommendations. The results of the panel’s work are contained in a detailed report. The main conclusions and recommendations of that report are summarized in the present document

The effects of HIV and systolic blood pressure on mortality risk in rural South Africa, 2010-2019: a data note

Objectives: South Africa is experiencing both HIV and hypertension epidemics. Data were compiled for a study to identify effects of HIV and high systolic blood pressure on mortality risk among people aged 40-plus in a rural South African area experiencing high prevalence of both conditions. We aim to release the replication data set for this study. Data description: The research data comes from the 2010-11 Ha Nakekela (We Care) population-based survey nested in the Agincourt Health and socio-Demographic Surveillance System (AHDSS) located in the northeast region of South Africa. An age-sex-stratified probability sample was drawn from the AHDSS. The public data set includes information on individual socioeconomic characteristics and measures of HIV status and blood pressure for participants aged 40-plus by 2019. The AHDSS, through its annual surveillance, provided mortality data for nine years subsequent to the survey. These data were converted to person-year observations and linked to the individual-level survey data using participants’ AHDSS census identifier. The data can be used to replicate Houle et al. (2022) — which used discrete-time event history models stratified by sex to assess differential mortality risks according to Ha Nakekela measures of HIV-infection, HIV-1 RNA viral load, and systolic blood pressure

Clusters of HIV risk and protective sexual behaviors in Agincourt, Rural South Africa; Findings from the Ha Nakekela population-based study of ages 15 and older

Understanding how sexual behaviors cluster in distinct population subgroups along the life course is critical for effective targeting and tailoring of HIV prevention messaging and intervention activities. We examined interrelatedness of sexual behaviors and variation between men and women across a wide age range in a rural South African setting with a high HIV burden. Data come from the Ha Nakekela population-based survey of people aged 15-85-plus drawn from the Agincourt Health and Socio-Demographic Surveillance System. We used latent class analysis of six sexual behavior indicators to identify distinct subgroup sexual behavior clusters. We then examined associations between class membership and sociodemographic and other behavioral risk factors and assessed the accuracy of a reduced set of sexual behavior indicators to classify individuals into latent classes. We identified three sexual behavior classes: (1) single with consistent protective behaviors; (2) risky behaviors; and (3) in union with lack of protective behaviors. Patterns of sexual behaviors varied by gender. Class membership was also associated with age, HIV status, nationality, and alcohol use. With only two sexual behavior indicators (union status and multiple sexual partners), individuals were accurately assigned to their most likely predicted class. There were distinct multidimensional sexual behavior clusters in population subgroups that varied by sex, age, and HIV status. In this population, only two brief questions were needed to classify individuals into risk classes. Replication in other situations is needed to confirm these findings.We are grateful for funding support from: the US National Institute on Aging—R01 AG049634 HIV after 40 in rural South Africa: Aging in the Context of an HIV Epidemic (PI Sanyu Mojola); the National Institutes of Health—R24 AG032112-05 Partnership for Social Science AIDS Research in South Africa’s Era of ART Rollout (PI Jane Menken); the University of Colorado, Innovative Seed Grant HIV after 40 in rural South Africa (PI Sanyu Mojola); the Eunice Kennedy Shriver National Institute of Child Health and Human Development—K01 HD057246 (PI Samuel Clark); and the William and Flora Hewlett Foundation 2009-4060 African Population Research and Training Program (PI Jane Menken). The MRC/Wits Rural Public Health and Health Transitions Research Unit and Agincourt Health and Socio-Demographic Surveillance System, a node of the South African Population Research Infrastructure Network (SAPRIN), is supported by the Department of Science and Innovation, the University of the Witwatersrand, and the Medical Research Council, South Africa, and previously the Wellcome Trust, UK (Grants 058893/Z/99/A; 069683/Z/02/Z; 085477/Z/08/Z; 085477/B/08/Z). This work has also benefted from research, administrative, and computing support from the Eunice Kennedy Shriver National Institute of Child Health and Human Development–funded University of Colorado Population Center (R24HD066613, P2C HD066613)

Improving public health training and research capacity in Africa: a replicable model for linking training to health and socio-demographic surveillance data

Background: Research training for public health professionals is key to the future of public health and policy in Africa. A growing number of schools of public health are connected to health and socio-demographic surveillance system field sites in developing countries, in Africa and Asia in particular. Linking training programs with these sites provides important opportunities to improve training, build local research capacity, foreground local health priorities, and increase the relevance of research to local health policy. Objective: To increase research training capacity in public health programs by providing targeted training to students and increasing the accessibility of existing data. Design: This report is a case study of an approach to linking public health research and training at the University of the Witwatersrand. We discuss the development of a sample training database from the Agincourt Health and Socio-demographic Surveillance System in South Africa and outline a concordant transnational intensive short course on longitudinal data analysis offered by the University of the Witwatersrand and the University of Colorado-Boulder. This case study highlights ways common barriers to linking research and training can be overcome. Results and Conclusions: This collaborative effort demonstrates that linking training to ongoing data collection can improve student research, accelerate student training, and connect students to an international network of scholars. Importantly, the approach can be adapted to other partnerships between schools of public health and longitudinal research sites

Natural fertility: patterns and determinants of natural fertility / Fécondité naturelle : niveaux et déterminants de la fécondité naturelle

proceedings of an IUSSP Seminar on natural fertilit

Leveraging longitudinal data in developing countries /

Report of a worksho