15 research outputs found
LIVESTOCK TO 2020: THE REVOLUTION CONTINUES
This paper was presented at the INTERNATIONAL TRADE IN LIVESTOCK PRODUCTS SYMPOSIUM in Auckland, New Zealand, January 18-19, 2001. The Symposium was sponsored by: the International Agricultural Trade Research Consortium, the Venture Trust, Massey University, New Zealand, and the Centre for Applied Economics and Policy Studies, Massey University. Dietary changes, especially in developing countries, are driving a massive increase in demand for livestock products. The objective of this symposium was to examine the consequences of this phenomenon, which some have even called a "revolution." How are dietary patterns changing, and can increased demands for livestock products be satisfied from domestic resources? If so, at what cost? What will be the flow-on impacts, for example, in terms of increased demands for feedgrains and the pressures for change within marketing systems? A supply-side response has been the continued development of large-scale, urban-based industrial livestock production systems that in many cases give rise to environmental concerns. If additional imports seem required, where will they originate and what about food security in the importing regions? How might market access conditions be re-negotiated to make increased imports achievable? Other important issues discussed involved food safety, animal health and welfare and the adoption of biotechnology, and their interactions with the negotiation of reforms to domestic and trade policies. Individual papers from this conference are available on AgEcon Search. If you would like to see the complete agenda and set of papers from this conference, please visit the IATRC symposium web page at: http://www1.umn.edu/iatrc.intro.htmDemand and Price Analysis, Production Economics,
2020 Global food outlook
This report shows just how, and how much, certain policy decisions and social changes will affect the world's future food security. It projects the likely food situation in 2020 if the world continues on more or less its present course, and it then shows how alternative choices could produce a different future. Even rather small changes in agricultural and development policies and investments, it turns out, can have wide-reaching effects on the number of poor and undernourished people around the world. A world of less poverty, greater food security, and a healthier environment is possible, but it will not come about without explicit policy steps in that direction. 2020 Global Food Outlook is the latest in a series of world food projections based on a model developed at IFPRI beginning in 1992.The model has been updated and expanded periodically since then as a way of painting an ever-clearer picture of the global food situation in 2020.
Fish as food
"This paper reports results of incorporating fish into IMPACT, a global model of food supply and demand that estimates market-clearing prices to 2020 for 32 commodities in 36 regions. It summarizes results for production, consumption, net exports and real price changes for 10 economic categories of fisheries items, disaggregated into 15 geographic regions of the world. Under the medium-variant scenario for the uncertain capture fisheries sectors, global production of food fish is projected to rise by 1.5% annually through 2020, with two-thirds of this from aquaculture, whose share in total food fish production rises to 41%. Global per capita fish consumption is projected to be 17.1 kg in 2020, with sensitivity analysis indicating a margin of 2 kg/capita either way based on extreme scenarios for capture and aquaculture. Most growth will occur in developing countries, which will account for 79% of food fish production in 2020. China's share of world production will continue to expand, while that of Japan, the EU, and former USSR will continue to contract. Real fish prices will rise 4 to 16% by 2020, while meat prices will fall 3%. Fishmeal and oil prices will rise 18%; use of these commodities will increasingly be concentrated in carnivorous aquaculture. Growing domestic demand will dampen fish exports from developing countries. Sensitivity analysis incorporating a very pessimistic view of capture fisheries leads to escalating food fish prices (+69% for high-value finfish) and soaring fishmeal prices (+134%), whereas an optimistic view of increased investment in aquaculture lowers real prices of low value food fish (-12%), and raises fishmeal prices (+42%)." Authors' AbstractFishery production Forecasting ,Food supply ,
outlook for fish to 2020
Fish trade ,Fisheries Economic aspects Developing countries ,Fisheries Environmental aspects ,
LIVESTOCK TO 2020: THE REVOLUTION CONTINUES
This paper was presented at the INTERNATIONAL TRADE IN LIVESTOCK PRODUCTS SYMPOSIUM in Auckland, New Zealand, January 18-19, 2001. The Symposium was sponsored by: the International Agricultural Trade Research Consortium, the Venture Trust, Massey University, New Zealand, and the Centre for Applied Economics and Policy Studies, Massey University.
Dietary changes, especially in developing countries, are driving a massive increase in demand for livestock products. The objective of this symposium was to examine the consequences of this phenomenon, which some have even called a "revolution." How are dietary patterns changing, and can increased demands for livestock products be satisfied from domestic resources? If so, at what cost? What will be the flow-on impacts, for example, in terms of increased demands for feedgrains and the pressures for change within marketing systems?
A supply-side response has been the continued development of large-scale, urban-based industrial livestock production systems that in many cases give rise to environmental concerns. If additional imports seem required, where will they originate and what about food security in the importing regions? How might market access conditions be re-negotiated to make increased imports achievable? Other important issues discussed involved food safety, animal health and welfare and the adoption of biotechnology, and their interactions with the negotiation of reforms to domestic and trade policies.
Individual papers from this conference are available on AgEcon Search. If you would like to see the complete agenda and set of papers from this conference, please visit the IATRC symposium web page at: http://www1.umn.edu/iatrc.intro.ht
FISH AS FOOD: PROJECTIONS TO 2020 UNDER DIFFERENT SCENARIOS
This paper reports results of incorporating fish into IMPACT, a global model of
food supply and demand that estimates market-clearing prices to 2020 for 32
commodities in 36 regions. It summarizes results for production, consumption, net
exports and real price changes for 10 economic categories of fisheries items,
disaggregated into 15 geographic regions of the world. Under the medium-variant
scenario for the uncertain capture fisheries sectors, global production of food fish is
projected to rise by 1.5% annually through 2020, with two-thirds of this from
aquaculture, whose share in total food fish production rises to 41%. Global per capita
fish consumption is projected to be 17.1 kg in 2020, with sensitivity analysis indicating a
margin of 2 kg/capita either way based on extreme scenarios for capture and aquaculture.
Most growth will occur in developing countries, which will account for 79% of food fish
production in 2020. China's share of world production will continue to expand, while
that of Japan, the EU, and former USSR will continue to contract. Real fish prices will
rise 4 to 16% by 2020, while meat prices will fall 3%. Fishmeal and oil prices will rise
18%; use of these commodities will increasingly be concentrated in carnivorous
aquaculture. Growing domestic demand will dampen fish exports from developing
countries. Sensitivity analysis incorporating a very pessimistic view of capture fisheries
leads to escalating food fish prices (+69% for high-value finfish) and soaring fishmeal
prices (+134%), whereas an optimistic view of increased investment in aquaculture
lowers real prices of low value food fish (-12%), and raises fishmeal prices (+42%)