Tropical Pacific moisture variability

The research objectives are the following: (1) to describe synoptic scale variability of moisture over the tropical Pacific Ocean and the systems leading to this variability; (2) to implement satellite analysis procedures to accomplish (1); (3) to incorporate additional satellite information into operational analysis/forecast systems at NMC; and (4) to synthesize knowledge gained from satellite observations through diagnosis and numerical models. Significant accomplishments in FY 91/92 are presented and include the following: (1) satellite forecast applications; (2) satellite data analysis; and (3) tropical plume mechanisms

Spin transport in coupled spinor Bose gases

We report direct measurements of spin transport in a trapped, partially condensed spinor Bose gas. Detailed analyses of spin flux in this out-of-equilibrium quantum gas are performed by monitoring the flow of atoms in different hyperfine spin states. The main mechanisms for motion in this system are exchange scattering and potential energy inhomogeneity, which lead to spin waves in the normal component and domain formation in the condensate. We find a large discrepancy in domain formation timescales with those predicted by potential-driven formation, indicating strong coupling of the condensate to the normal component spin wave

Application of satellite data to tropic/subtropic moisture coupling

The objective is to utilize various satellite products from a number of satellites together with data observed from platforms available during the FGGE Special Observing Periods to diagnose synoptic scale events in date void regions. The focus is on episodes of northeastward traveling cloud bands which move out of the ITCZ over the eastern North Pacific Ocean. These events are called moisture bursts

Non-supersymmetric infrared perturbations to the warped deformed conifold

We analyze properties of non-supersymmetric isometry-preserving perturbations to the infrared region of the warped deformed conifold, i.e. the Klebanov Strassler solution. We discuss both perturbations that "squash" the geometry, so that the internal space is no longer conformally Calabi-Yau, and perturbations that do not squash the geometry. Among the perturbations that we discuss is the solution that describes the linearized near-tip backreaction of a smeared collection of anti-D3-branes positioned in the deep infrared. Such a configuration is a candidate gravity dual of a non-supersymmetric state in a large-rank cascading gauge theory. Although anti-D3-branes do not directly couple to the 3-form flux, we argue that, due to the presence of the background imaginary self-dual flux, anti-D3-branes in the Klebanov-Strassler geometry necessarily produce singular non-imaginary self-dual flux. Moreover, since conformally Calabi-Yau geometries cannot be supported by non-imaginary self-dual flux, the anti-D3-branes squash the geometry as our explicit solution shows. We also briefly discuss supersymmetry-breaking perturbations at large radii and the effect of the non-supersymmetric perturbations on the gravitino mass.Comment: 42 pages, references added, typos and minor errors corrected, discussion of boundary conditions extended. Version to appear in NP

THE LINEAR REGRESSION MODEL WITH AUTOCORRELATED ERRORS: JUST SAY NO TO ERROR AUTOCORRELATION

This paper focuses on the practice of serial correlation correcting of the Linear Regression Model (LRM) by modeling the error. Simple Monte Carlo experiments are used to demonstrate the following points regarding this practice. First, the common factor restrictions implicitly imposed on the temporal structure of yt and xt appear to be completely unreasonable for any real world application. Second, when one compares the Autocorrelation-Corrected LRM (ACLRM) model estimates with estimates from the (unrestricted) Dynamic Linear Regression Model (DLRM) encompassing the ACLRM there is no significant gain in efficiency! Third, as expected, when the common factor restrictions do not hold the LRM model gives poor estimates of the true parameters and estimation of the ACLRM simply gives rise to different misleading results! On the other hand, estimates from the DLRM and the corresponding VAR model are very reliable. Fourth, the power of the usual Durbin Watson test (DW) of autocorrelation is much higher when the common factor restrictions do hold than when they do not. But, a more general test of autocorrelation is shown to perform almost as well as the DW when the common factor restrictions do hold and significantly better than the DW when the restrictions do not hold. Fifth, we demonstrate how simple it is to, at least, test the common factor restrictions imposed and we illustrate how powerful this test can be.Research Methods/ Statistical Methods,