The Illusory Leader: Natural Resources, Taxation and Accountability

This paper proposes and tests a mechanism through which the natural resource curse can operate. I posit that, in the presence of high natural resource rents, leaders lower the burden of taxation on citizens in order to reduce the demand for democratic accountability. The theory is tested using micro-level data from public opinion surveys across 15 sub-Saharan countries, in addition to country-level data on natural resource rents, taxation and election proximity. It is found that an increase in natural resource rents decreases perceived tax enforcement, which in turn reduces the demand for regular, open and honest elections. Results are robust to alternative specifications. A supplementary analysis reveals that, consistent with the two-period model proposed, the effects are more acute closer to national elections. The findings support political-economy explanations of how natural resources affect economies, in which resource rents are purported to influence the decisions of the political elite through increased returns to staying in power.Democracy; Political Economy; Natural Resources; Curses; Africa

Tropical Pacific moisture variability

The objectives are to describe synoptic scale variability of moisture over the tropical Pacific Ocean and the systems leading to this variability; implement satellite analysis procedures in support of this effort, and to incorporate additional satellite information into operational analysis forecast systems at the National Meteorological Center (NMC). Composite satellite radiance patterns describe features detectable well before the development of synoptic scale tropical plumes. These typical features were extracted from historical files of Tiros Operational Vertical Sounder (TOVS) radiance observations for a pair of tropical plumes which developed during January 1989. Signals were inserted into the NMC operational medium range forecast model and a suite of model integrations were conducted. Many of the 48 h model errors of the historical forecasts were eliminated by the inclusion of more complete satellite observations. Three studies in satellite radiance analysis progressed. An analysis which blended TOVS moisture channels, OLR observations and European Center for Medium Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) model analysis to generate fields of total precipitable water comparable to those estimated from Scanning Multichannel Microwave Radiometer (SMMR) mu-wave observations. This study demonstrated that a 10 y climatology of precipitable water over the oceans is feasible, using available infrared observations (OLR and TOVS) and model analysis (ECMWF, NMC or similar quality). The estimates are sensitive to model quality and the estimating model must be updated with operational model changes. Coe developed a set of tropical plume and ITCZ composites from TOVS observations, and from NMC and ECMWF analyses which had been passed through a radiative transfer model to simulate TOVS radiances. The composites have been completed as well as many statistical diagnostics of individual TOVS channels. Analysis of the computations is commencing. Chung has initiated a study of the differences between TOVS observed vapor structure during El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) (1983) and non-ENSO (1984) years. Preliminary diagnosis demonstrates gross moisture changes between warm and cold sea surface temperature episodes

Tropical Pacific moisture variability

The research objectives are the following: (1) to describe synoptic scale variability of moisture over the tropical Pacific Ocean and the systems leading to this variability; (2) to implement satellite analysis procedures to accomplish (1); (3) to incorporate additional satellite information into operational analysis/forecast systems at NMC; and (4) to synthesize knowledge gained from satellite observations through diagnosis and numerical models. Significant accomplishments in FY 91/92 are presented and include the following: (1) satellite forecast applications; (2) satellite data analysis; and (3) tropical plume mechanisms

Spin transport in coupled spinor Bose gases

We report direct measurements of spin transport in a trapped, partially condensed spinor Bose gas. Detailed analyses of spin flux in this out-of-equilibrium quantum gas are performed by monitoring the flow of atoms in different hyperfine spin states. The main mechanisms for motion in this system are exchange scattering and potential energy inhomogeneity, which lead to spin waves in the normal component and domain formation in the condensate. We find a large discrepancy in domain formation timescales with those predicted by potential-driven formation, indicating strong coupling of the condensate to the normal component spin wave

Application of satellite data to tropic/subtropic moisture coupling

The objective is to utilize various satellite products from a number of satellites together with data observed from platforms available during the FGGE Special Observing Periods to diagnose synoptic scale events in date void regions. The focus is on episodes of northeastward traveling cloud bands which move out of the ITCZ over the eastern North Pacific Ocean. These events are called moisture bursts

Non-supersymmetric infrared perturbations to the warped deformed conifold

We analyze properties of non-supersymmetric isometry-preserving perturbations to the infrared region of the warped deformed conifold, i.e. the Klebanov Strassler solution. We discuss both perturbations that "squash" the geometry, so that the internal space is no longer conformally Calabi-Yau, and perturbations that do not squash the geometry. Among the perturbations that we discuss is the solution that describes the linearized near-tip backreaction of a smeared collection of anti-D3-branes positioned in the deep infrared. Such a configuration is a candidate gravity dual of a non-supersymmetric state in a large-rank cascading gauge theory. Although anti-D3-branes do not directly couple to the 3-form flux, we argue that, due to the presence of the background imaginary self-dual flux, anti-D3-branes in the Klebanov-Strassler geometry necessarily produce singular non-imaginary self-dual flux. Moreover, since conformally Calabi-Yau geometries cannot be supported by non-imaginary self-dual flux, the anti-D3-branes squash the geometry as our explicit solution shows. We also briefly discuss supersymmetry-breaking perturbations at large radii and the effect of the non-supersymmetric perturbations on the gravitino mass.Comment: 42 pages, references added, typos and minor errors corrected, discussion of boundary conditions extended. Version to appear in NP