Learning in rent-seeking contests with payoff risk and foregone payoff Information

We test whether deviations from Nash equilibrium in rent-seeking contests can be explained by the slow convergence of payoff-based learning. We identify and eliminate two noise sources that slow down learning: first, opponents are changing their actions across rounds; second, payoffs are probabilistic, which reduces the correlation between expected and realized payoffs. We find that average choices are not significantly different from the risk-neutral Nash equilibrium predictions only when both noise sources are eliminated by supplying foregone payoff information and removing payoff risk. Payoff-based learning can explain these results better than alternative theories. We propose a hybrid learning model that combines reinforcement and belief learning with risk, social and other preferences, and show that it fits data well, mostly because of reinforcement learning

Behavioural Variation in Tullock contests

We conduct an experiment to uncover the reasons behind the typically large behavioral variation and low explanatory power of Nash equilibrium observed in Tullock contests. In our standard contest treatment, only 7% of choices are consistent with Nash equilibrium which is in line with the literature and roughly what random (uniform) choice would predict (6.25%). We consider a large class of social, risk and some other non-standard preferences and show that heterogeneity in preferences cannot explain these results. We then systematically vary the complexity of both components of Nash behaviour: (I) the difficulty to form correct beliefs and (II) the difficulty to formulate best responses. In treatments where both the difficulty of forming correct beliefs and of formulating best responses is reduced behavioural variation decreases substantially and the explanatory behaviour of Nash equilibrium increases dramatically (explaining 65% of choices with a further 20% being close to NE). Our results show that bounded rationality rather than heterogeneity in preferences is the reason behind the huge behavioral variation typically observed in Tullock contests

Feedback manipulation and learning in games

This thesis uses theory and experiments to study how an efficiency loss can be minimized in two types of situations. While competing for a fixed prize people suffer an efficiency loss if they invest more than would be optimal. We show that these wasteful overinvestments disappear when people receive accurate feedback, can learn over time and know what others will choose. A different type of efficiency loss occurs when people adopt inefficient conventions from which no individual wants to deviate. We show that such inefficient conventions are more often overcome if players can easily reveal their choices and if a group contains more farsighted people. These findings highlight the importance of social media and could potentially be useful for group formation

Towards operational validation of annual global land cover maps

Annual global land cover maps (GLC) are being provided by several operational monitoring efforts. However, map validation is lagging, in the sense that the annual land cover maps are often not validated. Concurrently, users such as the climate and land management community require information on the temporal consistency of multi-date GLC maps and stability in their accuracy. In this study, we propose a framework for operational validation of annual global land cover maps using efficient means for updating validation datasets that allow timely map validation according to recommendations in the CEOS Stage-4 validation guidelines. The framework includes a regular update of a validation dataset and continuous map validation. For the regular update of a validation dataset, a partial revision of the validation dataset based on random and targeted rechecking (areas with a high probability of change) is proposed followed by additional validation data collection. For continuous map validation, an accuracy assessment of each map release is proposed including an assessment of stability in map accuracy addressing the user needs on the temporal consistency information of GLC map and map quality. This validation approach was applied to the validation of the Copernicus Global Land Service GLC product (CGLS-LC100). The CGLS-LC100 global validation dataset was updated from 2015 to 2019. The update was done through a partial revision of the validation dataset and an additional collection of sample validation sites. From the global validation dataset, a total of 40% (10% for each update year) was revisited, supplemented by a targeted revision focusing on validation sample locations that were identified as possibly changed using the BFAST time series algorithm. Additionally, 6720 sample sites were collected to represent possible land cover change areas within 2015 and 2019. Through this updating mechanism, we increased the sampling intensity of validation sample sites in possible land cover change areas within the period. Next, the dataset was used to validate the annual GLC maps of the CGLS-LC100 product for 2015–2019. The results showed that the CGLS-LC100 annual GLC maps have about 80% overall accuracy showing high temporal consistency in general. In terms of stability in class accuracy, herbaceous wetland class showed to be the least stable over the period. As more operational land cover monitoring efforts are upcoming, we emphasize the importance of updated map validation and recommend improving the current validation practices and guidelines towards operational map validation so that long-term land cover maps and their uncertainty information are well understood and properly used

Safety and efficacy of tenecteplase in patients with wake-up stroke assessed by non-contrast CT (TWIST): a multicentre, open-label, randomised controlled trial

Background: Current evidence supports the use of intravenous thrombolysis with alteplase in patients with wake-up stroke selected with MRI or perfusion imaging and is recommended in clinical guidelines. However, access to advanced imaging techniques is often scarce. We aimed to determine whether thrombolytic treatment with intravenous tenecteplase given within 4·5 h of awakening improves functional outcome in patients with ischaemic wake-up stroke selected using non-contrast CT. Methods: TWIST was an investigator-initiated, multicentre, open-label, randomised controlled trial with blinded endpoint assessment, conducted at 77 hospitals in ten countries. We included patients aged 18 years or older with acute ischaemic stroke symptoms upon awakening, limb weakness, a National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale (NIHSS) score of 3 or higher or aphasia, a non-contrast CT examination of the head, and the ability to receive tenecteplase within 4·5 h of awakening. Patients were randomly assigned (1:1) to either a single intravenous bolus of tenecteplase 0·25 mg per kg of bodyweight (maximum 25 mg) or control (no thrombolysis) using a central, web-based, computer-generated randomisation schedule. Trained research personnel, who conducted telephone interviews at 90 days (follow-up), were masked to treatment allocation. Clinical assessments were performed on day 1 (at baseline) and day 7 of hospital admission (or at discharge, whichever occurred first). The primary outcome was functional outcome assessed by the modified Rankin Scale (mRS) at 90 days and analysed using ordinal logistic regression in the intention-to-treat population. This trial is registered with EudraCT (2014–000096–80), ClinicalTrials.gov (NCT03181360), and ISRCTN (10601890). Findings: From June 12, 2017, to Sept 30, 2021, 578 of the required 600 patients were enrolled (288 randomly assigned to the tenecteplase group and 290 to the control group [intention-to-treat population]). The median age of participants was 73·7 years (IQR 65·9–81·1). 332 (57%) of 578 participants were male and 246 (43%) were female. Treatment with tenecteplase was not associated with better functional outcome, according to mRS score at 90 days (adjusted OR 1·18, 95% CI 0·88–1·58; p=0·27). Mortality at 90 days did not significantly differ between treatment groups (28 [10%] patients in the tenecteplase group and 23 [8%] in the control group; adjusted HR 1·29, 95% CI 0·74–2·26; p=0·37). Symptomatic intracranial haemorrhage occurred in six (2%) patients in the tenecteplase group versus three (1%) in the control group (adjusted OR 2·17, 95% CI 0·53–8·87; p=0·28), whereas any intracranial haemorrhage occurred in 33 (11%) versus 30 (10%) patients (adjusted OR 1·14, 0·67–1·94; p=0·64). Interpretation: In patients with wake-up stroke selected with non-contrast CT, treatment with tenecteplase was not associated with better functional outcome at 90 days. The number of symptomatic haemorrhages and any intracranial haemorrhages in both treatment groups was similar to findings from previous trials of wake-up stroke patients selected using advanced imaging. Current evidence does not support treatment with tenecteplase in patients selected with non-contrast CT. Funding: Norwegian Clinical Research Therapy in the Specialist Health Services Programme, the Swiss Heart Foundation, the British Heart Foundation, and the Norwegian National Association for Public Health

Late Window Imaging Selection for Endovascular Therapy of Large Vessel Occlusion Stroke: An International Survey

Background Current stroke guidelines recommend advanced imaging (computed tomography [CT] perfusion or magnetic resonance imaging) prior to endovascular therapy (EVT) in patients with late presentation of large vessel occlusion. Adherence to guidelines may be constrained by resources or timely access to imaging. We sought to understand the factors which influence late window imaging selection for EVT candidates with large vessel occlusion. Methods We conducted an international survey from January to May 2022. The questions aimed to identify advanced imaging and treatment decisions based on access to imaging, time delays, and simulated patient scenarios. Results There were 3000 invited participants and 1506 respondents, the majority (89.6%) from comprehensive stroke centers in high‐income countries. Neurointerventionalists comprised 31.8% and noninterventionalists 68.2% of respondents. Overall, 70.7% reported routine use of advanced imaging for late EVT selection, and 63.6% reported its usage in every case. There was greater availability of advanced imaging in comprehensive stroke centers versus primary stroke centers (67.0% versus 33.7%; P<0.0001), and high‐ versus low‐middle income countries (70.5% versus 44.5%; P<0.0001). When presented with a late window patient, 41.6% would complete CT perfusion or magnetic resonance imaging prior to EVT, 25.4% would perform CT perfusion or magnetic resonance imaging prior to IVT and EVT, and 25.8% would refer to EVT without advanced imaging. If advanced imaging was not readily available, 70.1% would refer a patient to EVT based on CT in the late window. Additional time delay within 20 minutes to obtain advanced imaging was considered acceptable in 77.7% of respondents. Conclusion Current guidelines for imaging late window EVT candidates are inconsistent with imaging decisions by physicians. Most respondents consider an imaging delay of greater than 20 minutes unacceptable. Access to advanced imaging was greater in comprehensive stroke centers and high‐income countries. In the case of limited access most respondents would consider EVT based on CT only

A Survey of Experimental Research on Contests, All-Pay Auctions and Tournaments

Many economic, political and social environments can be described as contests in which agents exert costly efforts while competing over the distribution of a scarce resource. These environments have been studied using Tullock contests, all-pay auctions and rankorder tournaments. This survey provides a review of experimental research on these three canonical contests. First, we review studies investigating the basic structure of contests, including the contest success function, number of players and prizes, spillovers and externalities, heterogeneity, and incomplete information. Second, we discuss dynamic contests and multi-battle contests. Then we review research on sabotage, feedback, bias, collusion, alliances, and contests between groups, as well as real-effort and field experiments. Finally, we discuss applications of contests to the study of legal systems, political competition, war, conflict avoidance, sales, and charities, and suggest directions for future research. (author's abstract

One-way routes complicate cooperation in migrant crises

How can countries cooperate to shelter migrants? We use experimental economics to study the distinct challenges of cooperation in migrant crises. We designed an economic game, pass the buck, where participants are leaders of countries who decide whether to shelter migrants or pass them to the next country. We examine the difficulties posed by one-way migration and differences in wealth. We find that leaders sheltered migrants less often when they received them first on a one-way route, compared to when everyone received migrants at the same time. Moreover, the first leader became more likely to shelter migrants when the last country could return them to the first. When one country was wealthier, the wealthy leader sheltered more and the other leaders passed more. We discuss the implications for international cooperation in migrant crises